CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021800020001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 3, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 29, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelli~ence Bulletin
Secret
29 April 197?
State Department review completed
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No. 0103/72
29 April 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: North Vietnamese forces have nearly-'.iso-
lated Quang Tri City. (Page 1)
WEST GERMANY: Chancellor Brandt still hopes to
vote on the Eastern treaties next week as scheduled.
(Page 4)
ARGENTINA: Wage increase should ease pressures on
Lanusse. (Page 5)
TURKEY: Political crisis may affect enforcement of
opium ban. (Page 6)
ARMS CONTROL: Peking threatens to veto UN Security
Council endorsement of biological weapons conVe''
tion. (Page 7)
CHILE: Government candidate defeated (Page 9)
VENEZUELA: Oil export quotas (Page 9)
USSR-CUBA:. Status of Soviet naval units (Page 11)
JAPAN: Oil policy (Page 11)
GUINEA: Personnel and organizational changes
(Page 12)
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'SECITM
VCVIETNAM: The fall of the first provincial cap-
ital to Communist forces may occur soon.
Strong elements of two North Vietnamese divi-
sions spearheaded by tanks and supported by heavy
artillery have nearly isolated Quang Tri City. Some
enemy troops are reported to have reached the out-
skirts of the capital. Although Route 1 remains
open to the south for military traffic, there are
indications that the Communists hope to interdict
it soon. The defense of the city now relies heavily
on allied air support, which recently has been fa-
cilitated by relatively good weather.
Farther south, Fire Support Base Bastogne has
been evacuated, and only one other military strong-
point remains between the Communists and Hue. The
pressure from enemy forces in this area, moreover,
tends to inhibit any shift of government reinforce-
ments north from Hue to meet the threat in Quang
Tri.
The indications from the northern front are
that the enemy still hopes to sustain his military
pressure on the government over an extended period.
In the central highlands, there was little
enemy-initiated military action. The repositioning
of Communist headquarters, the continued evidence
of Communist resupply movements and enemy efforts
at road interdiction leave little doubt, however,
that a serious test of ARVN defenses north of Kontum
City is imminent.
The pattern of Communist action around An Loc
during the last few days suggests that the Commu-
nists may be trying to keep ARVN forces pinned down
in the town and along Route 13 by the continued use
of artillery and light ground probes. Meanwhile,
some enemy forces and equipment reportedly are being
shifted farther south toward Route 1.
(continued)
29 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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C Enough enemy weapons have been captured since
the start of the offensive to indicate that both the
Soviets and the Chinese are supplying up-to-date
weaponry to Hanoi. Chinese copies of Soviet tanks,
recoilless rifles, and grenade launchers are among
the arms taken. A Soviet-made wire-guided missile
that is highly effective against armored vehicles
and tanks has been used 1 r m or ba 1 -
fronts.
29 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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9: WEST GERMANY: Chancellor Brandt still hopes
to vote on the Eastern treaties next week as sched-
uled.
One day after surviving a no-confidence motion,
Brandt's government plunged into a new crisis when
the Bundestag rejected by a tie vote a part of the
budget bill. The deadlock has led opposition lead-
ers to revive their claim that Brandt had lost his
majority, and called forth proposals for early elec-
tions from both sides of the aisle. Brandt and Bar-
zel prefer to avoid elections at this time, however.
With the Bundestag adjourned until 2 May, Brandt
is trying to rally the three or four wavering coali-
tion deputies and undermine Christian Democratic re-
solve. One Free Democrat who voted for Barzel is be-
lieved favorably inclined on the treaties. Another
has agreed to resign in favor of a loyal replacement,
but he disappeared without handing in his letter of
resignation. Brandt hopes that the weekend may also
bring the beginning of dissension in opposition
ranks over Barzel's :Failure to unseat him.
The government crisis, capping an increasing
bitterness in debate over the treaties in the past
two weeks, appears to have sharpened divisions in
the electorate. Although government leaders are
taking their case to the public at a rally today in
West Berlin, they are also concerned lest the normal
May Day demonstrations get out of hand.
I I
29 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ARGENTINA: The general wage increase announced
this week should ease the political pressures on
President Lanusse, although it will add to the na-
tion's already serious economic problems.
Labor leaders are elated over the new wage pack-
age, which includes a 15-percent hike for all work-
ers and increases in family allowances and pensions.
For the benefit of the rank and file, the General
Confederation of Labor (CGT) will probably continue
to demand the reopening of collective bargaining,
but it now appears willing to cooperate with the
government. Pressure had been increasing rapidly
on the CGT leadership to take a hard-line stand
against the government, but Lanusse's move should
ease this pressure and strengthen the moderates'
hand.
The unexpectedly large wage increase apparently
has the approval of key military officers, who ex-
pect it to contribute to social peace for the next
few months, and of businessmen, who were becoming
concerned over the decline in buying power in Argen-
tina. The only significant opposition came from
Finance Minister Licciardo, who advocated a smaller
increase to become effective on 1 June instead of
the 1 May date finally approved by President Lanusse.
Licciardo's major concern was the impact this
move might have on current negotiations for large
international loans.
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TURKEY: The prolonged political crisis may be
diminishing attention to the enforcement of the ban
on opium poppy cultivation. The Turks appear to be
well aware of the importance in US-Turkish relations
of the ban, however, and are unlikely to ignore it.
There is a realization among most senior Turkish
officials that SUCK a course could lead to a sharp
deterioration in Turkish-American relations.
Former Prime Minister Erim was genuinely com-
mitted to a firm ban on further cultivation of opium
poppies after the current crop season, but there is
not likely to be the same degree of personal commit-
ment in his successor. One leading contender for
the premiership, Senator and former prime minister
Suat Urgupulu, openly criticized in 1970 what he
viewed as unwarranted US pressure to restrict opium
poppy cultivation in Turkey. This statement, how-
ever, was made in the context of publicity in the
US press, which received wide play in Turkey, of the
possible termination of US economic assistance unless
the Turks took more stringent measures. Urgupulu
has taken no recent public position on the opium
situation.
Given the complexity of the opium control bu-
reaucracy in Turkey and the extensive area in which
poppies could be grown illicitly, the ban on cultiva-
tion will be difficult to police and enforce even
under the best of conditions.
29 Apr 72 Cenral Intelligence Bulletin
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ARMS CONTROL: Peking's threat to veto UN
Security Council endorsement of the biological
weapons convention, ostensibly because Taipei has
signed, has forced an indefinite postponement of
Council action.
Opened for signature earlier this month, the
convention bans the development, production, and
stockpiling of biological weapons. Primary re-
sponsibility for investigating complaints is vested
in the Security Council, whose acceptance of a
resolution approving the convention thus is es-
sential.
Consideration of the convention by the Council
has been postponed several times because of uncer-
tainty about Peking's attitude. The Council had
been scheduled to consider the resolution this
week, but the meeting was canceled after the Chi-
nese explicitly indicated on 26 April that they
would veto the endorsement.
Chinese officials had been charging that the
convention is a "half-hearted" disarmament effort,
failing in particular to cover military use of
chemicals in Vietnam, but they reportedly intended
to abstain in the Council vote. The Chinese veto
threat, reiterated in Peking by Vice Foreign Min-
ister Chiao Kuan-hua, is based on the "much graver
question" of the recent Nationalist Chinese signa-
ture of the document: in Washington. Peking claims
this was a violation of the General Assembly's
decision on Chinese representation last fall and
that the effect of the Council's endorsement reso-
lution now would be recognition of Taipei.
Most Council members appear highly reluctant
to pursue the matter at this time, although they
dispute the Chinese view that any question of
29 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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recognition is involved in the signature of inter-
national conventions.
Soviet Ambassador Malik, however, regards
e Ufti-nese action as an "intolerable" bluster and
even suggested a meeting of the five permanent
Council members to pressure the Chinese. The So-
viets appear particularly concerned lest this "new
obstructionism" prevent Council review of future
disarmament agreements. The Soviet draft conven-
tion on chemical weapons, for example, also pro-
vides for Security ification.
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NOTES
(CHILE: Opposition forces won a significant
victory on 27 April by defeating President Allende's
moderate candidate, Felipe Herrera, for rector of
the politically sensitive national university.
Eduardo Boeninger was re-elected by a majority vote
against three leftist candidates, and his position
is strengthened by his supporters' capture of a
majority of the seats on the new university gov-
erning council. Domination of the former council
by Allende's Popular Unity forces had hamstrung
Boeninger's authority and hindered attempts to
maintain university independence from government
control. The outcome gives opposition forces fur-
ther proof that working together can bring them
victory. The setback will strengthen the argument
of some of Allende's supporters that his caution--
in this case his decision not to back a strongly
leftist candidate--is-defeating-the Chilean revolu-
tion.
VENEZUELA: A senior government official has
given the first hint that Venezuela would consider
easing potentially heavy penalties on foreign oil
companies that have failed to meet export quotas..
Crude oil production dropped 16 percent during the
first quarter of this year to an average of 3.1
million barrels daily compared with the same period
last year. The deputy minister of mines has sug-
gested that tax penalties could be waived if com-
panies increase drilling, production, and invest-
ment during the rest: of 1972. Most of the country's
major oil companies apparently are subject to the
penalties, and in the case of Venezuela's largest
crude oil producer--a subsidiary of Standard Oil
of New Jersey--the first quarter penalty could
reach $20 million.
(continued)
29 Apr 72
Cenr'ral Intelligence Bulletin
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Cienfuegos
Soviet Ugra-class submarine tender
seen entering Bay of Nipe
j
QGuantansmo
Naval Sam
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s1bly in time for May Day ceremonies.
USSR-CUBA: The Soviet Ugra-class submarine
tender that left the Mediterranean two weeks ago
entered the Bay of Nipe on 27 April. Soviet tenders
from the Northern Fleet have visited Cuba on earlier
occasions, but this is the first Ugra from the Black
Sea to operate in Cuban waters. The Kotlin-class
destroyer has been in Antilla for several days and
will probably accompany the tender to Havana, pos-
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JAPAN: Tokyo is considering the direct pur-
chase of petroleum from the oil producing countries
but faces a dilemma in making its final decision.
If Japan moves ahead, it would bypass the major oil
companies, mostly US and British, that now supply
the bulk of Japan's needs. The plan, which prob-
ably will be submitted to the Organization of Pe-
troleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in May, would
give Japan more control over its oil supplies, and
probably at a reduced cost. In return, however,
Japan would be required to develop research organi-
zations in the OPEC countries and offer them tech-
nological assistance for establishing their own
maritime fleets. Tokyo also would have to set up
a fund to be used for the construction of new oil
facilities, roads, and harbors in the participating
countries. It will be difficult, however, to by-
pass the major oil companies because they are so
deeply involved in Japan's oil industry. Even if
the plan is implemented, Japan, at the outset,
probably will purchase directly only a small Part
of its petroleum needs.
F
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GUINEA: The changes in personnel and organi-
zation produced at the recent extraordinary congress
of Guinea's only political party fall far short of
President Toure's much publicized vow to "radicalize
the revolution" in the wake of the extensive politi-
cal purge last year. Three members of the party's
seven-man executive bureau were replaced and one
minister was elevated to a newly created post of
prime minister. The changes do not signal any
basic policy shifts. The combining of economic
and financial affairs under one ministry headed by
the President's brother suggests an intention to
focus more on economic develop nt during 1972,
however. F77 11
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