CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021700030001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 24, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 18, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N? 42
18 April 1972
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No. 0093/72
18 April 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Relative lull in major Communist
attacks continues for second day. (Page 1)
NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi seeks to build pressure for
halt to bombing. (Page 3)
EGYPT: Agreement on financing oil pipeline. (Page 5)
CHILE: Grain imports will be increased to offset
decline in domestic output. (Page 6)
JAMAICA-CUBA: New prime minister under pressure
to establish diplomatic relations. (Page 7)
INDIA: New restrictions will affect foreign oil
companies. (Page 8)
PAKISTAN: Interim constitution approved (Page 9)
COLOMBIA: Setback for opposition (Page 9)
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SOUTH VIETNAM
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CSOUTH VIETNAM: The relative lull in major Com-
munist attacks continued for a second day through-
out most of South Vietnam.
The situation around An Loc remains stable with
the town still in friendly hands. The enemy mounted
no new armored or infantry assaults but shelled the
town.
In Military Region 2, enemy forces are begin-
ning to show new vigor, particularly in the inter-
diction of government lines of communication.
Route 19 connecting the highlands to the coast has
been blocked at An Khe Pass for over a week. Traf-
fic on Route 1 along the coast is being impeded as
Communist local forces knock out bridges, mine
roads, and ambush convoys from Binh Dinh south
through Phu Yen to Khanh Hoa Province. Traffic on
Route 14 in the central highlands and on Route 21
in southern MR-2 is also being harassed, but so
far to a lesser degree.
These interdictions are meant to make resupply
more difficult, to tie government forces to road
security duty, and to isolate government military
positions and towns, making them more vulnerable to
enemy attack. General Dzu, the MR-2 commander, has
expressed some concern, observing that his troops
will have to be more careful about the rate at which
they expend ammunition.
Thus far, enemy forces operating in MR-2 have
scored three psychologically damaging successes.
After elements of the Communist 320th Division
drove government defenders out of Fire Support Base
Charlie north of Kontum city last week, local Viet
Cong units overran Tam Quan district headquarters
in Binh Dinh Province over the weekend. In an en-
gagement on 15 April not previously reported, ele-
ments of the Communist 3rd Division forced two
battalions of the South Vietnamese 40th Regiment
to break and run, although both battalions regrouped
some hours later.
(continued)
18 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin I
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C Government forces are also scoring some suc-
cesses, however. In addition to holding An Loc
against a large attacking force, units from the 1st
ARVN Division attacked enemy forces in two engage-
ments ten miles southwest of Hue on 17 A ril report-
edly killing about 370 enemy troops. , 25X1
18 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi has offered to send polit-
buro member Le Duc Tho back to Paris, apparently in
an attempt to bring about a halt to US bombing in
North Vietnam and to influence US domestic opinion.
According to press reports, chief negotiator
Xuan Thuy said on 17 April that if the Paris nego-
tiations were resumed "in the usual manner" and if
the US stopped bombing North Vietnam, Tho would re-
turn to Paris. Thuy also intimated that further
secret talks might be possible if these two condi-.
tions were met. Tho met privately with Dr. Kissin-
ger three times in 1971, and even before then the
Communists often undertook new negotiating approaches
during his trips to Paris.
Thuy's announcement would seem to signal a more
flexible approach to Communist negotiating tactics
than has been implicit in Hanoi's recent public line.
His statements reveal nothing on the substance of
the current Communist negotiating demands; he said
only that Hanoi continues to support the Viet Cong's
seven points and the two-point "elaboration" last
February. But his ostensible interest in resuming
the talks suggests that the Communists are trying
to create the impression that they have something
new in mind,
This move clearly is in part a response to the
bombing attacks over the weekend. At yesterday's
press conference, Thuy quoted extensively from an
emotional North Vietnamese government-party state-
ment that asserted that the bombing will have no
long-range effect on North Vietnam. The statement
also seemed to betray some uneasiness over the US
stance at Paris and President Nixon's trips to Pe-
king and Moscow in its claim that Washington is
"using crafty political and diplomatic ploys to cover
up its wicked design of aggression." It repeated
the appeal for additional public support that Hanoi
directed at the Soviet Union and China on 11 April.
18 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
(continued)
3
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Nothing, however, in either Thuy's remarks or
the joint statement indicates that Hanoi is bending
under the current pressures. The statement asserts
that Hanoi will not be "intimidated" by the air
strikes, and it calls on the Vietnamese people to
strengthen their resolve. There are indications
in press reporting that Le Duc Tho's return to Paris
had been contemplated before the bombing began.
Thus it seems likely that Hanoi had other ob-
jectives in surfacing this new line. At the least,
in addition to putting maximum public pressure on
the US to halt the bombing, it probably is hoping
to give as much ammunition as possible to domestic
opponents of Washington's policy as a whole.
18 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EGYPT: Cairo evidently has reached an under-
standing with a consortium of European banks on some
$200 million in basic hard currency financing for
the SUMED pipeline.
The pipeline, which is to carry oil from the
Gulf of Suez to the Mediterranean, has been delayed
for about three years, mainly because of unresolved
differences over the amount of control to be exer-
cised by creditors during the eight-year repayment
period. The text of the "general financial agree-
ment" initialed in Cairo late last week resolved
all major issues, according to press reports.
Before construction begins, however, the finan-
cial agreement must be approved by the governments
of as many as nine lending countries if the bank
loans involved are to be officially guaranteed as
planned. Some aspects of the previously signed
construction contract have become obsolete and will
have to be renegotiated. Moreover, the financial
agreement is predicated upon the -S:tgnature of con-
tracts by users to cover the bulk of the line's
capacity. Because the prospective 1973 completion
date cannot now be met, all user pledges also have
to be renegotiated. Agreements must also be obtained
for ca city that has never been committed.
18 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Santiago will sharply increase grain
imports, probably on credit, to offset the marked
deterioration in agricultural production.
Total farm output in 1972 is likely to fall
about ten percent because political uncertainties
have drastically reduced agricultural investment.
The increased pace of legal and illegal farm sei-
zures has undermined morale in the private farm
sector. Moreover, shortages of imported fertilizers,
chemicals, and spare parts have hurt production at
both private and state-controlled agricultural enter-
prises.
Wheat imports probably will reach 700,000 metric
tons, a 40-percent increase over last year, and corn
imports are likely to jump almost 70 percent to
500,000 metric tons. Increased imports of rye, bar-
ley, oats, and potatoes also are likely.
Chile already has contracted for 350,000 metric
tons of wheat from Australia and hopes to get an ad-
ditional 200,000 tons from Argentina, but Buenos
Aires probably will supply only half that amount.
Moscow reportedly informed Santiago that it will sup-
ply up to 200,000 tons, but only if Chile is unable
to fill its requirements elsewhere.
18 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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JAMAICA-CUBA: Jamaica's new prime minister
may be coming under pressure to establish full dip-
lomatic relations with Cuba.
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At present, Jamaica's business with Havana is
handled by the UK, but Cuba has had a consulate in
Kingston for several years. Manley is known to
favor regional economic cooperation and may intend
to include Cuba in whatever initiatives he takes
in this direction.
Policy decisions involving Cuba apparently are
still in the discussion stage. While certain mem-
bers of the Manley government will press for better
relations with Cuba and the other Communist nations,
Manley will probably move toward normalization of
relations only after careful consideration of its
effect on relations with the US.
18 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INDIA: New Delhi's new restrictions and de-
mands on foreign-owned firms will hit the oil.com-
panies hardest.
The Indian finance minister announced last week
that the government will limit dividend remittances
abroad by wholly foreign-owned companies in India.
New Delhi is aiming at the foreign oil refineries
that have been repatriating their large Indian-held
reserves in anticipation of either nationalization
or sharply increased government ownership. Accord-
ing to government sources, about half of the $30
million remitted by the oil companies as dividends
in 1969 and 19.70 were from such reserves. In addi-
tion, New Delhi has announced that by the end of
the year the oil companies must build crude oil
storage sufficient for 36 days, rather than the
present 12 to 14 days. The government claims the
storage is necessary for national emergencies, but
the oil companies note that it will give the gov-
ernment more latitude in applying pressures during
price disputes.
So far, government moves toward nationalizing
the refineries have been held up for lack of a
cheap alternative source of crude oil. Efforts to
find additional domestic reserves or assured sources
abroad at reasonable prices have not been success-
ful. F7 I
18 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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PAKISTAN: The National Assembly approved an
interim constitution yesterday, President Bhutto's
prerequisite for lifting martial law on 21 April.
Because the constitution reportedly leans toward a
strong central presidency and contains other provi-
sions that will have the effect of keeping Bhutto
in power, autonomy-minded regional opposition par-
ties abstained. The opposition parties were re-
luctant to vote against the constitution because
this would have put them on record as obstructing
the termination of martial law. Much of Bhutto's
program has yet to be tested in the assembly, how-
ever, and the strong competition between his Paki-
stan People's Party and the opposition will lead
to further difficulties between them.
COLOMBIA: Ex-dictator Rojas Pinilla's National
Popular Alliance (ANAPO) suffered a major setback
in the elections on Sunday for municipal councils
and departmental legislatures. Results are not
complete but it appears unlikely that ANAPO can
overcome the lead that the traditional Liberal and
Conservative parties have established. These par-
ties are still split, and they will have to work
hard to maintain their hegemony in the 1974 general
election. NAPO
partisans migar- attempt to provoke violence if their
party lost; security forces remain alerted and prob-
ably will be able to control disturbances.
18 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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