CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021400050002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 11, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 11, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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GUATEMALA-UK: Arana government suspends negotiations
following'British refusal'to withdraw troops from'British
Honduras. (Page 3)
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FINLAND: Assessment of factional rivalry in Communist
party. (Page 10)
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GUATEMALA-UK: The Arana government has launched
the="opening salvo of a diplomatic and propaganda cam-
paign opposing Britain's increased military presence
in British Honduras.
In a communique released yesterday evening, the
Foreign Ministry characterized London's decision to
increase permanently the size of its garrison and
particularly to station Gurkha infantry units in the
colony as an act of aggression and a threat to the
integrity of the hemisphere. The communique further
stated that all negotiations with Britain had been
suspended and that the government would take the
necessary measures to protect the national interest
and dignity of Guatemala.
The government noted that secret negotiations
between Foreign Minister Herrera and British Minis-
ter of State Godber in Washington yesterday had been
unproductive. The British had refused to reduce
troop strength to normal levels, had refused to com-
promise.on the number of reinforcements, and had in-
sisted on replacing Grenadiers with Gurkhas.
In view of previous government concern that the
British troop reinforcement decision be kept secret,
the Arana decision to publicize the matter is a par-
ticularly significant indication that the government
is willing to commit its entire prestige to an all-
out effort to reverse the British decision.
Herrera, when he returns home, may try to per-
suade the cabinet to make a further attempt to win
a compromise agreement from the British. Arana and
his more impulsive advisers, however, may decide in-
stead to bring the matter before the OAS and may
take provocative military steps which would further
.undermine British willingness to leave themselves
exposed to a Guatemalan surprise attack. National-
istic sentiment, moreover, may become aroused to
such an extent that the government's ability to com-
promise is severely restricted.
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FINLAND: The Communist Party's moderate major-
ity s feeling the pressure from its conservative
rivals as it approaches a party congress on 31
March, but the moderates are not likely to lose con-
trol.
Leaders of both factions visited Moscow to-
gether in mid-February to offer divergent views on
decisions to be ratified at the congress. The So-
viets avoided supporting either faction and admon-
ished them to achieve unity. The two factions sub-
sequently appointed an eight-man negotiating com-
mittee, which apparently has failed to resolve dif-
ferences.
A:Lthough the conservatives have fared badly in
rece:,c trade union and national elections--they
will have 34 fewer delegates than the moderates at
the congress--they are demanding increased repre-
sentation on the party's leading organs. They also
insist on denouncing the Social Democrats, with
whose minority government the moderates cooperate
selectively and apparently hope to join later in
the year.
The Communists also are divided on the wage
demands they are currently making during Finland's
annual contract negotiations. The conservatives
oppose any over-all wage pact at all. This split
complicates the search for agreement on demands by
the national trade union organization, which is
dominated by the Social Democrats. A nationwide
wage settlement, in turn, is a key factor in renew-
ing Finland's economic stabilization program, due
to expire at the end of the month.
For some time the Communists' moderate leader-
ship has been fearful of being outflanked by the
conservatives and has adopted a militant pose.
This shift accounted in large part for its refusal
to participate in the government formed last month.
Moderate district leaders, however, lately have
shown more resolve. They voted on 29 February to
refuse any further concessions from the conservatiu s (
(continued)
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The Communists' electoral front has followed suit.
Although the moderates are likely to retain control
at the congress, it is moot whether they will feel
secure enough to face down future conservative ad-
vocacy of militant policies or prevent the conserv-
atives from hamstringing the pursuit of policies
they refer.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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