CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021300090002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 4, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
OGA and DOS review(s) completed.
Top Secret
C
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Lon Nol appears determined to become
country?s first president. (Page 2)
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GUATEMALA-UK: Sharp Guatemalan reaction expected
to Lon on's troop build-up decision. (Page 5)
PAKISTAN: Army and air force commanders dismissed.
(Page 7 )
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CAMBODIA: Prime Minister Lon Nol appears de-
ter ne to assume the position of president under
a new constitution to be promulgated this month.
Despite misgivings of some important political
leaders, Lon Nol is moving ahead with plans that
involve the resignation of Chief of State Cheng Heng
and a possible major cabinet reshuffle. He is now
considering several imaginative formulas that will
serve to put a legal stamp on the changes without
necessitating a prior referendum or election. The
most likely approach will be a provision in the new
constitution naming Lon Nol as interim president
until new elections can be held.
Lon Nol is pushing for promulgation of the new
constitution on 18 March, the second anniversary of
Sihanouk's ouster. He has already asked the able
and energetic In Tam to serve as prime minister un-
der the new constitution. Tam, who served as a
deputy prime minister until Lon Nol fired him last
year for being too independent, will not have much
latitude in the new post, but he seems nevertheless
inclined to accept it.
In the face of Lon Nol's determination, his
political critics are ivin round. Prime Minister
Dele ate Sirik Matak
as t e
os o ose in e s a e-up, apparently will ac-
quiesce. He will be relegated to the relatively
powerless vice presidency.
Although the sometimes enigmatic Lon Nol may
have some personal reason for aspiring to be the
Khmer Republic?s first president, his moves also
appear to be founded on solid considerations of
power politics. If he is able to establish him-
self in the new and powerful position of president
without testing his waning popularity at the ballot
box, Lon Nol will have convincingly re-established
predominance over his political opponents, who only
three months a o were res in hard o
nation.
en ra me agenee u etin 2
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GUATEMALA-UK: The Arana government is expected
to ct s arply to London's decision to increase
troop strength in British Honduras..
The Guatemalan cabinet has been meeting in
emergency session to plan strategy after being in-
formed by Britain that the battalion-sized force cur-
rently on maneuvers in the colony will not be re-
duced as planned to the normal garrison level of
approximately 250 men. Instead, the British will
maintain an anti-aircraft capability and replace the
Grenadier Guards Battalion with companies of Gurkha
infantry.
The Guatemalans have already characterized the
decision as an overt act of provocation, and Foreign
Minister Herrera told the US ambassador on Thursday
evening that Guatemala "cannot negotiate with a gun
at its head." Herrera was particularly upset by the
British intention to publicize the troop increase,
probably on Monday, and observed that this would
put the Arana government in an extremely difficult
position.
This British initiative is largely the result
of fear of a Guatemalan surprise attack and the De-
fense Ministry's judgment that the normal garrison
does not serve to deter Guatemalan adventurism and
would not be capable of providing an adequate de-
fense. The British apparently also believe that a
stronger military posture would provide bargaining
leverage to persuade Guatemala to negotiate a settle-
ment of its claim to the colony.
The Guatemalan reaction may be the reverse of
British hopes, however, and Arana may find himself
forced to adopt a more, rather than less, belliger-
ent stance. Arana might increase military expendi-
tures, step up military preparedness, and augment
Guatemalan troop strength along the British Honduras
border. Although the British will probably continue
efforts to arrange a ministerial-level meeting, they
will be unable to relieve the developing tensions
as Iona as thev refuse to reconsider their decision.
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PA ISTAN; The dismissals of the army and air
forc comman ers remove the two military officers
most closely associated with Bhutto's accession to
the presidency.
President Bhutto yesterday "accepted" the res-
ignations of Lieutenant General Gul Hasan and Air
Marshal Rahim Khan and relieved them of their com-
mands effective immediately. As successors, the
President chose Lieutenant General Ti}c:ka Khan and
Air Vice Marshal Zafar Ahmad Chaudhary~ Tikka Khan,
who achieved international notoriety in :1971 as mar-
tial law administrator for East Pakistan in the early
months of the army crackdown in that province, has
been described as a tough, pragmatic, and highly
competent field commander, favorably disposed toward
the US. Less is known of Chaudhary, who has recently
been managing director of Pakistani International
Airlines, but he rose rapidly through the ranks in
the Pakistani Air Force. He has been described as
pro-Chinese.
Before he assumed power last December, Bhutto
was on friendly terms with both Gul Hasan and Rahim
Khan, in part, at least, because of their opposition
t,o the policies of the previous government. One of
Bhutto's first acts as President was to appoint Gul
Hasan as army commander and reconfirm Rahim in the
top air force post. Recently, however, there have
been indications of strains developing between
Bhutto and Gul Hasan. These strains were seriously
exacerbated by the army commander's refusal on 24
February to send troops to Lahore to maintain law
and order during a police strike in that city as
requested by Bhutto. There is less evidence of a
rift between Bhutto and Rahim Khan,
Bhutto's action also may be related to the
growing controversy between himself and the Pathan
political leader in the Northwest Frontier Province,
Khan Abdul Wali Khan. Both Rahim Khan and Gul Hasan
4 Mar 7 2 Central Intelli epee Bulletin
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