CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 17, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/09/02: CIA-RDP79T00975A02120006-rrt
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
N2 042
17 February 1972
Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/64RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
No. 0041/72
17 February 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CUBA-US: Castro regime may instigate incident at
Guantanamo. (Page 1)
EGYPT: Assessment of Sadat's speech. (Page 2)
25X6
PAKISTAN: Economic situation has worsened. (Page 6)
ECUADOR: Calm prevails following coup. (Page 7)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Preferential tariff agree-
ments in Me iterranean. (Page 8)
CHINA: Regime intensifies efforts to reinstate
veteran civilian officials. (Page 10)
JAPAN: Balance of payments strong and yen reaches
reTo:d high. (Page 11)
ITALY: Christian Democrats decide to form single
party government. (Page 13)
GHANA: Western creditors to discuss Ghana's debts.
Page 14)
MALTA: Mintoff's attitude toward agreement with UK
Page 15)
YUGOSLAVIA: Croatian emigres plan attacks (Page 15)
GUYANA: Relations with Communist. states (Page 16)
Approved For Release 2003/BEOF'.DP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0~/i72~&Z DP79T00975A021200060001-9
CUBA
STATUTE MILES
Caracoles Pointf'd C> Y= -
L: "SASE GUANTA+0.. BAY
Approved For Release 2003/09w( PE P79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09 C DP79T00975A021200060001-9
CUBA-US: The Castro government may attempt to
create an incident at the Guantanamo Naval Base this
weekend to draw international attention to its long-
standing claims that the US military presence there
is illegal. There is no evidence, however, that the
Cubans plan any kind of armed attacks against the
base.
The most likely focus of such an incident would
be the scheduled passage through base-controlled
waters of several Cuban merchant ships carrying mem-
bers of Cuba's Union of Communist Youth on a round-
island tour.
The mercnant snips now are pro-
ceeding eastward along the southern coast of the
island.
Since last November, the Cuban Government has
evinced an unusual interest in the Guantanamo issue
through both public and private means. The joint
Soviet-Cuban communique issued on 1 November at the
conclusion of Soviet Premier.Kosygin's visit pro-
tested the "unlawful presence of the North American
military base at Guantanamo."
Castro has long maintained that Cuba intends
to gain "rightful" control over Guantanamo at "the
proper time" through legal and peaceful means.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/051 `bP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09/ a ITP79T00975AO21200060001-9
EGYPT: President Sadat offered no new military
or political breakthroughs to the Egyptian people in
his first address to the nation since he returned
from Moscow earlier this month.
Speaking to a national congress of the Arab
Socialist Union yesterday, Saclat stressed that
"patience and silence" were required during the
present phase of the struggle with Israel. He
again recounted the events of the last three months
which necessitated a "recalcu..ation" of the situa-
tion so as to put the nation on a better footing
for the struggle. Sadat chas?:ised the US for im-
peding progress in the diplomatic arena and alleged
that recent manifestations of support for Israel
were attempts by the US to recoup its losses in
the Indo-Pakistani conflict.
Sadat declined to make public any details of
his recent trip to Moscow, sa"ing that they would
be revealed during a closed piirty meeting today.
Although Sadat again characterized the visit as
"highly successful," he gave :.ittle indication that
he had arranged any new arms deals. In an apparent
attempt to put the best face possible on the Moscow
talks, Sadat subsequently urged concerted efforts
"to absorb sophisticated weapons" and threatened
to strike Israel "deep in its territory" if it
attacks Egypt's interior.
The government's concern over the possibility
of a recurrence of student unrest was evident in
Sadat's remark that the nation's youth might be in
a state of "exhausted patience.." He referred to
the intensive dialogue taking place between student
representatives and governmeni: officials since the
student demonstrations last month, and warned that
students should convey further expressions of frus-
tration "through the establishment." Although there
was little in the speech to a:.leviate student un-
happiness over the no war - no peace situation,
Sadat appealed for their understanding and announced
17 Feb 72 Central Intelligen.e Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/09( i ,DP79T00975AO21200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/O'RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
that he had ordered the release of the remainder of
hard-core students detained during the January pro-
tests.
In a move he may hope will have a sobering in-
fluence, Sadat ended his speech by threatening to
step down from the presidency if he loses the con-
fidence of the people. He did not, however, indi-
cate that he was seriously thinking of such a gesture
at present.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0'9) :' iDP79T00975A021200060001-9
 25X6 Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09WC-C61P79T00975A021200060001-9
PAKISTAN: The economic situation has worsened
during the past month.
Industry is operating at less than a third of
capacity, according to the US Embassy. Failure of
the government to establish economic priorities,
loss of markets in Bangladesh, and the halt in new
foreign aid have led to increased investor uncertainty
and poor morale among management. Labor unrest has
been expressed in a series of crippling strikes.
The agricultural outlook has brightened some-
what in the last two weeks as badly needed rain has
broken the drought. Recent harvests of cotton and
rice are described as exceptionally good. Prospec-
tive land reforms, however, will complicate the
agricultural situation. Bhutto must choose between
the probable disruption to production and the effect
on government revenues of large-scale reallotments
of land, and popular resentment if reforms are
moderate in scope.
Although imports have been reduced and exports
are strong, the trade deficit remains large. The
extended deadline for foreign exchange repatriation
has passed with little in the way of new inflows.
Japan has confirmed that Islamabad resumed
interest payments on outstanding loans. According
to the US Embassy in Islamabad, Tokyo's delay of
pipeline deliveries probably influenced the resump-
tion of the payments. Rome has denied a Japanese
report that Italy also had received interest pay-
ments.
Central Intelliger ce Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/098 O g]LP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/%":k 1_ DP79T00975A021200060001-9
ECUADOR: The country is calm following the
coup, and there has been no popular movement in
support of either the ousted President Velasco
or Assad Bucaram, against whose presidential can-
didacy the military moved.
The army commander in Gua a uil
apparent y has
come down on the side of President Rodriguez. To
consolidate the new government's position in that
area, the naval zone commander has been named as
chief of civil and military affairs. In addition,
the government has arrested two men who served as
cabinet ministers under Velasco and had gone to
the airport to bid him farewell. Bucaram has gone
into hiding.
Rodriguez' government may have to take at
least a moderately reformist line in order to ap-
pease those younger officers who supported Bucaram.
The more nationalistic-minded officers may try to
manipulate Rodriguez or, eventually, oust him if
they believe his administration is too protective
of the status quo. Some Ecuadorean officers have
expressed admiration for the Peruvian military
government and may attempt to emulate it. The new
government probably will make little modification
in the present policy with respect to Ecuador's
claim to a 200-mile territorial sea limit. I
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0 ,qPCI[C,MDP79TOO975AO21200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0W RIP79T00975A021200060001-9
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The EC's system of pref-
erential agreements in the MEditerranean will soon
be extended.
Negotiations between the community and Egypt
and Lebanon have been stallec.for a year by the
Arabs' insistence that their national legislation
requires them to discriminatE against EC firms and
individuals dealing with IsrEel. A solution to
this impasse reportedly has keen reached in which
the community would in effect turn a blind eye to
the Arab boycott.
There has been substantial agreement for some
time on provisions of the five-year arrangements.
The EC is offering a 50-percEnt cut in industrial
tariffs, with certain exceptions, in return for a
40-percent reduction in Egyptian and Lebanese tar-
iffs on a more limited list cf industrial products.
The final negotiations may be complicated, however,
by increased import restrictions contemplated as
part of Egypt's austerity prcgram. The community
also is offering the 40-percEnt duty reduction on
citrus imports previously offered to Cyprus and
already included in the EC-Israeli agreement.
The agreements with Egypt and Lebanon are in-
tended by the EC to balance its agreement with Is-
rael. More generally, they reflect the community
belief that preferences are cne means of extending
Europe's influence in the Mediterranean. The com-
munity is presently considering requests from Is-
rael, Spain, and Malta to reregotiate existing
agreements in order to meet the problems they will
face when Britain joins the C. In addition to
talks with Cyprus on an association arrangement,
renegotiations of the association agreements with
Turkey and Greece have begun, and similar talks
will begin with Morocco and Tunisia later this
year.
(continued)
17 Feb 72 Central Intelligenc., Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/0w~1~--~DP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0WkiIDP79T00975A021200060001-9
The over-all problem of rationalizing the com-
munity's "Mediterranean policy" is, meanwhile, being
taken up by the EC's machinery for political con-
sultations. It remains doubtful that this policy
review will lead the EC to abandon preferences as
a political tool, despite the well-known US objec-
tions that they are contrary to GATT.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/09 C P79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09/gf,,L jffP79T00975A021200060001-9
CHINA: Peking is intensLfying its efforts to
reinstate veteran civilian of:icials who came under
severe criticism during the C-iltural Revolution.
The provincial press has claimed with increasing
frequency in the past two wee;;s that 90 to 95 percent
of local cadres have been pol._tically rehabilitated.
Many of the officials have returned to their previous
positions or to equally responsible posts. The vet-
eran cadre issue has been repeatedly debated since
the closing out of the Cultural Revolution. Prop-
aganda treatment has shifted back and forth between
the need to use these experienced officials "boldly"
and the demand that they undergo further self-crit-
icism and ideological remolding. The current campaign
is weighted in favor of emplo"ing the greatest pos-
sible number of these people and suggests that a
fundamental consensus has been reached.
Veteran cadres, in fact, have returned to their
jobs in growing numbers in recent years. But progress
toward a restoration and reordering of the bureau-
cratic structure has been ser_.ously hampered by the
enhanced political role of thE! military and by the
vigorous resistance of radica:. elements to the rein-
statement of officials whom they previously had
helped purge.
The ouster of some ranking radical politburo
members, a prolonged drive agE.inst "ultraleftism"
in the provinces, and reassert.ions of the paramountcy
of the party in the wake of the Lin Piao affair all
indicate that the latest attempt to return to pre-
Cultural Revolution organizational norms will be
more systematic and determined than previous efforts.
Nevertheless, the need to rejt.venate the shattered
morale of many of the reinstated cadres and to
achieve a balance between civilian and military
authority poses problems not easily resolved even
Central Intelliger, ce Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/09/ ?(,, i 1 P79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0R/jR4~ DP79T00975A021200060001-9
JAPAN: The balance of payments continued to
show considerable strength in January, and the value
of the yen rose to a record high level by mid-Feb-
ruary.
A $170-million trade surplus was achieved de-
spite seasonal trends that historically have caused
trade deficits for the first months of the year.
The trade surplus resulted from a 24-percent in-
crease in exports, due in part to large increases
in sales to the US of automobiles, synthetic tex-
tiles, and clothing. More than half of this in-
crease in dollar sales, however, resulted from the
fact that Japanese exporters raised their dollar
prices rather than absorb the impact of revaluation
in lower yen prices. Imports rose only ten percent
while those from the US declined because of reduced
grain shipments. The west coast dock strike, how-
ever, may have distorted normal trading patterns
between the US and Japan.
A short-term capital inflow of $440 million,
due mainly to prepayments on export contracts, also
aided the payments balance. As a result, official
reserves increased $722 million and approached $16
billion at the end of January.
1:n mid-February the yen reached a record high
of 303 to the dollar. This is near the high end of
the permissible band on the new exchange rates es-
tablished in December 1971 and is 18.8 percent above
the pre-August 1971 parity level. The Bank of Japan
apparently is not interfering significantly in the
foreign exchange market and, according to its gov-
ernor, no decision has been reached on the point at
which the bank will try to stabilize the yen-dollar
exchange rate.
17 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/061ifa 1 - DP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/091&:CIA=RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
Chamber of Deputies
PCI- Communists *
PSIUP- Proletarian Unity
MPL- Political Labor Movement
PSI- socialists
PSDI- Social Democrats
PRI Republicans
DC- Christian Democrats
,;VP- South Tyrolese
PU_I- Liberals
PDIUM- Monarchists
MSI- Neo-Fascists
PLI-31 '
MSI-25
Approved For Release 2003/09/s 1;;Pi*~if79T00975AO21200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/0O& C& ifDP79T00975A021200060001-9
ITALY: The Christian Democratic party decided
on 15 February to form a single party government
under Giulio Andreotti to lead the country into
parliamentary elections.
25X1
the Neo-Fascists in the parliamentary elections.
The Christian Democrats' decision antagonizes
their former government partners, the Socialists
and the Social Democrats, and is opposed by their
own left sector under Foreign Minister Moro. Im-
plementation of the decision would make more diffi-
cult any reformation of the normal center-left
coalition after the election. Right-wing Christian
Democrats believe, however, that dissociation from
the Socialists would be of substantial, perhaps
critically important, help in campaigning against
25X1
17 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
n -U
Approved For Release 2003/Og~C"t'Yk-RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975A021200060001-9
SECRJ1T
GHANA: Accra's Western creditors are meeting
today in London for an initial exchange of views on
Ghana's bid for relief from its heavy debt burden.
Reconsideration of the d,bt problem was pre-
cipitated by Ghana's announce:nent on 5 February
that it was repudiating a por:ion of its Nkrumah
era medium-term debt which wa3 allegedly tainted
by corruption. On other debt;, Ghana unilaterally
announced changes in repayment terms.
The British, Ghana's largest creditor, called
the meeting to develop a coorlinated, fairly hard-
line, multilateral approach. The Netherlands,
Belgium, and Norway are also inclined to a tough
reaction. Germany, France, aid Italy seem more
sympathetic to Ghana's plight. All are concerned
about setting precedents that might be used by
other debtor countries.
Although the junta has riled out meeting with
Ghana's creditors as a group, it has hinted that
the debt repudiation announce:nent may be subject
to negotiation. The Ghanaian; have asked the World
Bank to mediate their dispute; with creditors,
taking into account the count.:y's broader economic
problems. The position of th,? creditors on Ghana's
debts will have a substantial impact on the new
government's attitude toward :he West and on its
economic policies, which are ;till in a state of
flux.
17 Feb 72 Central Intelliget ce Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/09 ~ 1 P79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09CIRiTDP79T00975A021200060001-9
NOTES
MALTA: In talks with Prime Minister Mintoff,
Italian officials were given the impression that
he now favors concluding an agreement with Britain
if some face-saving device can be found. Mintoff
informed the Italian ambassador-Ito Malta that he had
abandoned his intention of seeking additional money
from Libya but still needs an immediate cash payment
larger than that offered by the UK and its NATO al-
lies. Rome has advanced a compromise formula that
would increase the amount of money immediately avail-
able and has suggested that it might be useful if
Prime Minister Heath invited Mintoff to London--a
trip the Maltese leader apparently wants to make.
In the absence of an agreement, London is continuing
its withdrawal and has set 25 February as the dead-
line for dismissal notices to all Maltese employed
by the British.
YUGOSLAVIA: Anti-Tito Croatian emigres report-
edly plan more attacks on Yugoslav missions and air-
liners abroad and against Western airlines carrying
large numbers of Yugoslav passengers. Airport secu-
rity in Sweden and West Germany already has been
tightened around all Yugoslavia-bound flights.
Belgrade takes the threat seriously, following four
bombings last month.
(continued)
17 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 15
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/09 (a&4DP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09/~ ~Q- 79T00975AO21200060001-9
GUYANA: In keeping with his stated policy of
political non-alignment and diminished economic
dependence on the West, Prime Minister Burnham is
continuing to seek expanded relations with the Com-
munist world. He reportedly is considering the es-
tablishment of trade, and pc,ssibly diplomatic, re-
lations with Cuba. Guyana 1.as had non-resident
diplomatic relations with tI.e USSR since December
1970, and the two countries now are conducting trade
on a small scale. A trade E.greement was signed
with China last November any. a permanent Chinese
trade mission is expected ir. Georgetown by the end
of this month. Burnham alsci is considering the
establishment of trade relations with East Germany,
Romania, and Yugoslavia. A]-though the potential
economic gains from expander. contacts with Commu-
nist countries appear limited, Burnham apparently
feels that such moves will s-trengthen his domestic
political position and -enhance his credentials as
a third world leader.
Central Intellige ice Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/09/W.(I;kkP79T00975A021200060001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/09/02 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO21200060001-9