CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021100110001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 10, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
N2 042
10 February 1972
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No. 0035/72
10 February 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
WEST GERMANY - FRANCE: Assessment of Brandt-Pompi-
dou meeting. (Page 1)
USSR-BANGLADESH: Mujibur Rahman invited to Moscow.
(Page 3)
MALTA-UK-NATO:. Latest talks made no progress but
agreement still appears possible. (Page 4)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Mao's program for higher education
being revised. (Page 5)
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NICARAGUA: Government manipulates election results.
Page 8)
PANAMA: Government plans major political rally.
Page 9)
SOUTH AFRICA: African leader will demand govern-
ment grant more land. (Page 11)
CHILE-USSR: Army chief under pressure to accept
Soviet credit offers (Page 13)
INDOCHINA: Improvements in enemy roadnet (Page 13)
CANADA: Sharp rise in unemployment (Page 14)
NEW ZEALAND : New'cabinet (Page 14)
ALGERIA-CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Proposal for economic
agreement (Page 15
LIBYA: Elections to Arab Confederation assembly
Page 15)
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WEST GERMANY - FRANCE: The two-day meeting be-
tween Chancellor Brandt and President Pompidou that
.begins today will focus on future development of the
European Communities.
Of immediate concern are the differences over
how the EC should resume movement toward monetary
and economic union, which was disrupted by the 1971
monetary crisis. While France attaches priority to
narrowing the margins between EC currencies, Germany
continues to emphasize the need to balance any such
steps with moves toward coordinated economic pol-
icies.
The meeting will also provide the occasion for
a discussion of preparations for the likely summit
meeting of the present and prospective community
members later this year. The summit will involve a
survey of the future role of the community in Euro-
pean and world affairs generally. EC enlargement,
the prospect of global trade negotiations, the com-
munity's nascent political consultations and the
drive for East-West detente have all made this role
a crucial question.
Brandt and Pompidou nevertheless may find them-
selves in substantial disagreement over Europe's
future political organization. Although German For-
eign Minister Scheel has partially endorsed Pompi-
dou's view that each government should appoint a
"European minister" to represent it in community
affairs, both Scheel and Brandt have also emphasized
the need to develop further existing community in-
stitutions. In interviews earlier this week both en-
dorsed majority voting in the EC Council, a stronger
Commission, and a popularly elected European Parlia-
ment--all of which are anathema to the French.
Given these differences, it seems likely that
the position adopted by Prime Minister Heath--who
will be seeing Pompidou later this month, and Brandt
10 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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in April--will become increasingly important. Al-
though Heath seemed to go far toward endorsing Pom-
pidou's positions in Paris last summer, his recent
statements suggest that his endorsement is by no
means complete. He has, for example, publicly re-
jected the "European ministers" idea and has sup-
t
d
por
e
strengthening the F,,,-n?oan Parliament.
10 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-BANGLADESH: Moscow's invitation to Prime
Minister Muji ur Ra man to visit in March is the
latest indication of Soviet interest in close rela-
tions with Bangladesh.
The Soviets are trying to capitalize on their
present favorable position in Bangladesh. Prior to
formal recognition of the new regime, Soviet planes
ferried token relief aid and Soviet officials in
talks with Dacca leaders held out the promise of
assistance, especially in the areas of flood con-
trol, transportation, and communications. A draft
trade agreement was signed on 9 February. The East
Wing branch of the old Soviet-Pakistan friendship
society was resurrected as the "Society of Friend-
ship Between the Peoples of Bangladesh and the So-
viet Union."
After recognition on 25 January, Aeroflot added
Dacca to its Moscow-Djakarta route, and the Soviets
reportedly offered to supply aircraft for Bangla-
desh's national airline.
The Soviets have a strong interest in assist-
ing Bangladesh in reconstruction. They have bris-
tled at Chinese charges that Mujib's government is
a creature of "Indian aggression, supported by so-
cial-imperialism." In addition, Moscow doubtless
hopes that early support for Bangladesh will enable
the USSR to maintain its position as Dacca's pri-
mary "great power" supporter. The Soviets have ad-
mitted misgivings about the bourgeois character of
the Bangladesh leaders, but Moscow wants to ensure
that the US and China--especially the latter--are
prevented from overtaking the USSR's lead in Dacca.
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10 Feb 72
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MALTA-UK-NATO: The talks on 7-8 February made
no progress, but an agreement still appears possible.
Prime Minister Mintoff, who prior to the most
recent talks had lobbied unsuccessfully for an addi-
tional, one-time payment of about $13 million, was
uncooperative and generally withdrawn. In one ses-
sion, he left much of the negotiating to his chief
assistant and brooded on the sidelines. As a re-
sult of his behavior, the discussions resulted in
minimal movement on secondary, bilateral Malta-UK
issues. The principal bilateral question--work
contracts for Maltese labor employed by the British--
still is unresalvedF
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The talks broke off without setting a date for
a future meeting and Mintoff returned to Valletta
to consult with his Labor Party supporters. Before
leaving, however, he made still another attempt to
secure an increase in the total UK-NATO financial
package to Malta. He indicated to Italian Foreign
Minister Moro that Valletta's desire for additional
funds might be satisfied if loans were made avail-
able at very favorable rates. This may have been
a probe to test the firmness of NATO unity on the
financial issue.
Meanwhile, the British withdrawal continues
and may soon enter a critical stage that will be
both expensive and difficult to reverse.
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10 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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COMMUNIST CHINA: Elements of Mao Tse-tung's
program for "revolutionizing" China's higher edu-
cation are being selectively revised.
I Ilocal
variations are cropping up in appIy1ny oist
prescription that secondary school graduates must
undergo a lengthy period of rustication as a pre-
requisite for university admission. The original
formula called for all graduates to spend a minimum
of three years in the countryside prior to univer-
sity entrance. This requirement apparently is be-
ing relaxed in favor of allowing individual local-
ities to set their own standards.
Some areas now require only a year and others
just three months of service in the rural areas to
become eligible for recommendation to a university.
In a sharp reversal of Maoist policies, authorities
in at least one city are recommending certain well-
qualified middle school students for direct entry
into universities without first completing a rural
assignment.
The relaxation of the rural labor requirement
almost certainly is designed to ensure that the
universities, which have been enrolling large num-
bers of politically correct but poorly educated
workers, peasants, and soldiers, are supplied with
at least some better-qualified students. Presumably
the relaxation reflects a growing concern among
moderate elements in the leadership that Mao's rad-
ical prescription for higher education will not
meet China's increasing technological needs.
I de-
cision already has been taken to a e oist
program and to reorient higher education toward
academic pursuits. Although there has been no of-
ficial announcement of such a decision, the national
education conference held last summer probably ad-
dressed itself to this question. In any case, a
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steadily increasing volume of propaganda has called
for resurrecting academic policies in vogue before
the Cultural Revolution. These include emphasis on
basic theoretical studies, the selective use of
foreign textbooks, and the reintroduction on a lim-
ited basis of the examination system.
On the other hand, the current effort to raise
academic standards at China's universities is un-
likely to alter the basic fact that most secondary
graduates still stand little chance of ever getting
a higher education. Moreover, not all universities
have reopened, and to date those that have reopened
have enrolled only a fraction of the number of pre-
Cultural Revolution students. More importantly,
urban areas are unable to absorb the large numbers
of educated youth who reach working age each year.
Thus, for the near term at least, the majority
of China's educated youth can continue to expect to
be sent down for a mandatory stint of labor on the
farm. This is partly explained by an apparent con-
sensus in Peking on the notion that the quality of
life in rural areas will be raised by the infusion
of large numbers--some 10 million during the past
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NICARAGUA: The government has suddenly thrown
a blanket of secrecy over the ballot counting in an
effort to juggle the results--not in favor of the
government, but to make the opposition appear
stronger.
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In voting for a constituent assembly on 6 Feb-
ruary, the governing Liberal Party was at least a
four-to-one favorite, according to Embassy estimates,
but early returns showed the Liberals running 15 to
1 ahead of the Conservatives. The sting of such a
resounding defeat was too much for Conservative
leader Aguero, who charged that the elections were
fraudulent and threatened to withdraw from partici-
pation in the interim government. In an effort to
forestall this, President Somoza has suspended pub-
lic disclosure of the count and has offered to ar-
range for a higher percentage of the vote for the
opposition. Embassy officials believe both sides
can agree on approximately 25 percent for the Con-
servatives.
The number of votes does not matter as far as
the composition of the constituent assembly is con-
cerned, since it has already been agreed that the
Conservatives will receive 40 of the 100 seats re-
gardless of the actual count. What is at stake is
the preservation of a Liberal-Conservative pact,
which practically guarantees Aguero's credibility
as an opposition leader and Somoza a return to power
following a 30-month interim government. Aguero's
charges of fraud, on the other hand, are credible;
there has probably not been an honest election in
Nicaragua in almost, half a century, and ingrained
habits of multiple voting and intimidation die hard.
10 Feb 72
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PANAMA: The government is planning a major
political rally next month..
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he rally is designed primarily to dem-
onstrate labor's support for the. government's new
labor code, which has run into stiff business op-
position. It will also show labor's support for
Torrijos as Panama's next president.
only a shell, but it may soon take on real life in
preparation for the election in August of a legis-
The government is also apparently resurrecting
the New Panama Movement, an. official government
party designed to replace the traditional oligarchy-
dominated parties that have been proscribed since
the 1968 coup. The New Panama. Movement was first
advertised in 1969, but never got off the ground.
More recently, however, a leadership cadre has been
formed, and the movement is providing funds for the
planned labor rally. The government party is still
lature, which will in turn elect the new president.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SOUTH AFRICA: The government may be heading
for another showdown with the Transkei.
Kaiser Matanzima, the chief minister of the
Transkei--South Africa's largest, oldest, and at
one time most cooperative bantustan (African re-
serve)--is meeting with Prime Minister Vorster this
week and reportedly plans to demand additional land,
including a seaport. The Transkei leader has threat-
ened to denounce apartheid as a fraud and to pursue
a policy of multiracialism if the government refuses
to grant his demands. Although requests for more
land are not new, Matanzima may have been encouraged
to be more aggressive now by the success that the
Zulu and the Ovambo have apparently had in extract-
ing concessions from Pretoria.
This action could pose a dilemma for the gov-
ernment. Right-wingers would view concessions to
the Transkei as a display of weakness. On the
other hand, granting these demands would open the
floodgates of demands from other bantustan leaders.
Moreover,. denunciation of separate development by
one of its oldest supporters could make the govern-
ment look bad just when recent UN Security Council
actions have focused international attention once
again on South Africa. The Transkei has put the
government on the spot on other occasions, however,
and the two have always reached an accommodation.
10 Feb 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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New Communist Road Construction
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CHILE-USSR: Army commander in chief Prats
claims that he is under constant pressure from the
Allende government to accept "many attractive offers"
of credit for the purchase of Soviet military equip-
ment. Prats told a US defense attache source that
he may not be able to continue postponing acceptance
of these offers or of an official invitation to visit
the USSR. Top generals have opposed acquisition of
Soviet equipment, but this attitude may change fol-
lowing recent shifts in many top army assignments.
Perhaps more important, army representatives in the
Chilean military delegation that recently visited
Cuba reportedly were favorably impressed by the Soviet
military equipment demonstrated b the Cuban armed
forces.
*
INDOCHINA: The North Vietnamese are rapidly
improving their logistical roadnet into northern
South Vietnam. Photography of late January showed
the early stages of construction of an extension of
Route 102, apparently heading for cache sites just
north and west of Fire Support Base Fuller near
Route 9. The other two: roads that cross the DMZ
are in the final stages of construction, but some
.qPCfinents north of Khe Sanh are inactive.
(continued)
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CANADA: The unemployment rate rose sharply
last month to 7.7 percent, up from 6.1 percent in
December. Unemployment usually is high at this
time of the year, but the failure to reduce it sub-
stantially in the past year will continue to hamper
government prospects for an absolute majority in
the federal elections that probably will be held
some time this year. The Trudeau government is
likely to adopt more stimulative monetary and
fiscal policies, possibly combined with wage and
price controls. In addition, high unemployment
also could delay new government measures designed
to restrict foreign ent in Canada.
NEW ZEALAND: Prime Minister Marshall's cabinet,
announced 9 February, includes several new faces
but strengthens the impression that it will bring
no significant policy changes. Former prime minis-
ter Holyoake retains the foreign affairs portfolio,
the able Robert Muldoon remains minister of finance,
while former defense minister David Thomson takes
on the labor portfolio. Thomson's appointment was
without the blessing of organized labor and may
signal a hard line toward labor unrest during 1972.
The new and younger faces presumably are intended
to give the government a revitalized appearance in
preparation for national elections later this year,
which are expected to be close. Marshall has also
created two new portfolios for environment and so-
cial welfare in a clear effort to disarm the oppo-
sition Labor Party's criticism that the government
(continued)
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ALGERIA-CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Prague promised to
conclude "as early as possible" a new economic
agreement with Algiers during the recent session
of the joint committee for economic, technical,
and scientific cooperation. Under the proposed
pact Czechoslovakia would provide a $50-million
long-term loan for complete plants and equipment.
With this new aid Czechoslovakia would play a more
active role in Algeria's economic development.
Previously, Prague had extended $15 million in
credit but only one third has been used.
LIBYA: The first elections to the National
Assembly of the Confederation of Arab Republics
(CAR) will be held in Libya on 27 February, accord-
ing to an announcement by the official Libyan news
agency. Libya will be represented by 20 members,
whose candidature must be submitted on 15 February,
although details have not yet been published con-
cerning the qualifications of candidates or how
they will be selected. It is in keeping with Qa-
dhafi's fervent support of CAR, however, that Libya
will hold elections for the CAR assembly, even be-
fore it has elected a Libyan National Assembly.
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Secret
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