CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021100010001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 29, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
29 January 1972
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0025/72
29 January 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
LAOS: Long Tieng sector remains quiet, but enemy
activity flares elsewhere. (Page 1)
CHILE: Assessment of new cabinet. (Page 2)
GUATEMALA - BRITISH HONDURAS: Attack on British
colony remains unlikely. (Page 3)
SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: Mine workers strike nearly
over. (Page 4)
USSR: Shortcomings in computer field. (Page 5)
US-USSR: US company to sell truck parts (Page 6)
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MILES
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C LAOS: The military situation around Long Tieng
remains relatively quiet. The Communists have, how-
ever, shelled positions near the Luang Prabang air-
field in the north and increased their pressure on
government units in south Laos.
In the Long Tieng area, government forces re-
occupied a position on the easternmost end of Sky-
line Ridge. There was no enemy resistance, but a
subsequent shelling attack killed the battalion com-
mander and five other irregulars. Air observers
have recently reported a new enemy build-up north
of the ridge, and irregular patrols report increased
enemy activity east and southeast of the Long Tieng
valley. The current low level of enemy-initiated
activity suggests that the Communists may be holding
fire while preparing for an all-out, coordinated at-
tack.
The shelling attack at Luang Prabang missed
the airstrip and caused only slight damage and few
casualties at a nearby Lao Army headquarters area.
No large North Vietnamese units have been detected
near Luang Prabang during the current dry season,
and most of the fighting in the area has consisted
of probes and shelling attacks on irregular defen-
sive positions some 15 to 20 miles north and north-
east of the royal capital. The Luang Prabang air-
field has been a target of Communist shelling at-
tacks in previous years.
In south Laos, Lao Army and irregular units on
Route 23 west of Ban Gnik came under fire by 122-mm.
rockets on 28 January. No further details are yet
available, but it is likely that the Communists hope
to push government forces back at least as far as
the junction of routes 23 and 231. Lao Neutralist
forces who had been stationed on Route 231 abandoned
their positions on 27 January and apparently are
withdrawing to Pakse.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: The cabinet list announced on 28 Janu-
ary leaves Allende' political difficulties essen-
tially unresolved;. Allende hint d that he may fur-
ther alter his cabinet in March hint
Allende
naa teen see ing to broaden is political base by
including representatives of the opposition Chris-
tian Democratic Party and perhaps a member of the
armed forces. The new list, however, only slightly
expands the base of Allende's coalition. Only one
small party was added, and only three new ministers
were named although six portfolios changed hands in
the long-awaited shakeup. Hernan del Canto, a So-
cialist labor leader, assumes the key interior min-
istry.
Jose Toha, who was recently impeached as in-
terior minister, was appointed minister of defense.
His return to the cabinet is certain to antagonize
the opposition Christian Democrats and the National
Party who overcame their long-standing antipathy and
worked together to oust Toha. Their cooperation re-
sulted in the defeat of government candidates in the
recent by-elections. Toha's appointment may also be
a source of distress to the military who blame him
for the mishandling of the women's march on 1 Decem-
ber.
C Allende also alluded yesterday to the possibil-
ity that he would attempt to create a single govern-
ment party to take the place of the present Popular
Unity coalition. He also intends to make subcabinet
changes soon.
29 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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GUATEMALA - BRITISH HONDURAS: Despite height-
ened tensions and increased Guatemalan military prep-
arations, an attack on British Honduras remains un-
likely.
The Arana government, deeply concerned that
London will grant the colony its independence in ad-
vance of a settlement of the Guatemalan territorial
claim, yesterday placed its armed forces on alert.
Guatemala apparently fears that British troop ar-
rivals in preparation for training. maneuvers in the
area are designed to support an independence move.
These fears persist despite British reassurances
that it has no plans to grant independence before
some solution has been found to the Guatemalan claim.
The Guatemalan foreign minister has informed the
US ambassador that his government would not allow
British Honduras "to become independent without
Guatemala's knowledge and consent." If independence
were granted, Guatemalan "honor" would probably com-
pel an invasion even though Arana is fully aware that
the British have sufficient force in the area to re-
pel an attack and would use it if necessary. Never-
theless, in the absence of any unilateral move to-
ward independence an invasion would be improbable.
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29 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SOUTH-WEST AFRICA: The strike of Ovambo mine
workers is slowly win ing down, accompanied by
sporadic but minor outbreaks of violence.
About 4,500 Ovambos have signed up at the re-
cently reopened employment centers to negotiate con-
tracts under a new agreement. Some have already
started trickling south to the mines. The chairman
of the strikers' committee, who previously had urged
strikers to accept the agreement and return to work,
officially disbanded his committee on 26 January,
explaining that it served no further purpose in view
of the new agreement.
Scattered reports of disorders--hut burnings,
fence cuttings and inter-tribal squabbles--have re-
ceived extensive press coverage and prompted a
strong statement from a South African official. He
said that the police had been instructed to take
firm action against the "limited number of intimi-
dators" who were disturbing the peace. He added
that where necessary, units of the South African
defense forces will assist the police in maintain-
ing order. A South-West African official confirmed
that army units had arrived with orders to protect
the South-West African - Angolan border, and that
they were sent at the request of the Ovamboland au-
thorities.
The strong South African statement was intended
to counteract charges that the agreement was a major
setback for the government and to dispel white fears
inspired by the reports of troubles in South-West
Africa, some of which had anti-white overtones. The
current South African parliamentary session offi-
cially opened in Cape Town yesterday, and the gov-
ernment may also be bracing itself against expected
criticism from the opposition especially since the
government will propose additional autonomy for
Ovamboland. There is little evidence so far that
the violence is anything more than Ovambos releasing
their frustrations.
29 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR: The Soviets have publicly admitted for
the first time that they are encountering serious
problems in developing and producing third-genera-
tion computers.
A recent Pravda article detailed such difficul-
ties as a serious shortage of systems analysts and
mathematicians in computer design institutes, the
duplication of research efforts, and dispersion of
responsibility. The shortage of peripheral equip-
ment, such as computer terminals and data transmis-
sion systems, and the failure of ministries to pro-
vide high-quality punch cards and magnetic tape were
also mentioned.
The article stated that a new third-generation
computer has been accepted for series production,
but no date for production was given. This computer
is one of the Soviet RYAD series, which is based on
the IBM-360 series of computers. This particular
model, the ES-1020, is almost equivalent to the IBM
360-30, a computer of modest capability first pro-
duced in the US in 1965. Production of the first
RYAD is already at least a year behind schedule and
there is no evidence that other models of the series
have progressed beyond the prototype stage. I
29 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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US-USSR: A US company has signed a $21 million
contract to supply equipment to build truck brake-
drum and wheel-hub assemblies for the Gorkiy Motor
Vehicle Plant. The agreement is the latest large
deal between the two countries involving payment in
hard currency. The firm also is negotiating to fur-
nish transfer lines valued at about $60 million for
the machining of cylinder blocks at the Kama Truck
Plant. US license applications on bids for Kama
totaling at least $1 billion have been approved by
the Department of Commerce; this figure includes $80
million in applications by the firm in question for
transfer equipment to produce axles, brake drums and
pmen
Potential sales of US equ
nubs.
amount to several hundred million dollars.
29 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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t for Kama could
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Secret
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