CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020700030001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 11, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 042
11 December 1971
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No.. 0296/71
1.1 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian forces should begin to gain
the upper hand in the West once East Pakistan has
fallen. (Page 1)
PANAMA: Regime cracks down on efforts of business
community to organize political movement. (Page 5)
LAOS: Government forces under heavy Communist mil-
it ray pressure in South Laos. (Page 7)
SOUTH KOREA: President Pak apparently will brook
no opposition to "emergency" measures. (Page 8)
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CINDIA-PAKISTAN: Indian forces should begin to
gain the upper hand on the western front once East
Pakistan has fallen.
In the East, the Indians continue to close in
on the capital city of Dacca. The Indian forces
closest to the capital, those east of the city,
control most of the Pakistani territory up to the
Meghna River. The Indians say they have crossed
the Meghna at Bhairab Bazar upstream from Dacca
and have advanced to within 22 miles of the city.
They are apparently meeting little enemy resistance
and claim that only the many small rivers in the
area are blocking their way; the retreating Paki-
stanis have reportedly destroyed many bridges. The
Indian radio has retracted an earlier report that
Indian units had crossed the Meghna further south
and reached the key port town of Narayanganj just
six miles from the capital. Meanwhile, the Indians
claim they have Pakistani units bottled up at var-
ious other locations and are making air strikes
against the remaining pockets of resistance.
i;o far the Pakistani Army in the Dacca area
has icot, shown much inclination to prepare for a
Some troops apparently
ave made their way to port towns below Dacca but
have found that Indian domination of the Bay of
Bengal and the main river routes has closed off
the possibility of escape by sea.
Both sides continue to claim successes on the
western front. In northern Kashmir, the Pakistanis
say they have beaten back Indian counterattacks in
the Kargil and Tithwal areas. They also claim to
be gaining some ground amid heavy fighting in In-
dian territory near Chhamb. In the Sialkot sector
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C the Indians reportedly have the initiative. Neither
side appears to have made any major gains yet in any
of these areas. Farther south, the Indians claim
they have captured over 1,200 square miles in the
Sind area, but this territory is sparsely populated.
New Delhi can be expected to move additional troops
to the western front after East Pakistan falls;I
e n+ians reportedly have area y
snit ;ec some aircraft from the eastern to the west--
ern theater.
The Pakistani Government is submitting a pro--
posal to UN Secretary General Thant calling for an
immediate cease-fire in the East and guarantees
for the safety of Pakistani armed forces and other
non-Bengalis in the province. The message to Thant
makes it clear that Pakistan. is not proposing a sur
render by its armed forces. According to Pakistani
Foreign Secretary Sultan Khan, Islamabad would also
accept a cease-fire on the western front-on the
basis of the recently passed UN General Assembly.
resolution, or under the general terms of a cease-
fire and a stand-fast to be observed by UN repre-
sentatives. Negotiations for settlement of the war,
troop withdrawal, and "satisfaction of Bengali as-
pirations" would follow. There has been no Indian
response as yet to the Pakistani.. proposal, but at
this juncture, with the Indians so close to a com-
plete victory in the East, they are unlikely to
respond affirmatively to a proposition that does
not include a surrender and an immediate turnover
of power to the Bengalis.
The Soviets have not reactad thus far to the
West Pakistani cease-fire proposal, but Moscow will
probably support whatever tack New Delhi takes.
In an authoritative article in Pravda yesterday
11 Dec 71
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C the Soviets expressed discomfiture about the results
of the UN General Assembly debate and concern about
the fact that the crisis has brought Peking and Wash-
ington together on a major international issue. The
author attributed the defeat of the Soviet General
Assembly resolution on the crisis to the fact that
some countries--i.e.., China and the US--hope to gain
from the conflict while others were duped by "arti-
ficially whipped-up hysteria" and did not understand
the true nature of the situation.
New Delhi yesterday demanded that the UN with-
draw all of its personnel from East Pakistan and
close its operations there. Assistant UN Secretary
General Henry in Dacca believes that India is making
this demand to force the UN to deal with Bangla Desh
authorities by breaking UN ties with Islamabad's
officials in the province. India's demand may also
stem from the fact that, many of the Bengali rebels
have felt that the UN's presence was helping to
perpetuate West Pakistani control over the province.
The Indian Army's eastern command itself charged
yesterday that UN food relief ships were carrying
ammunition and other war materiel to Pakistani troops
in the East. Henry hopes to be able to start evacua-
ting UN personnel from the area in British planes
expected to arrive in Dacca today. India had already
promised to stop bombing the Dacca airfield for a
24-hour period starting at 1800 locaatime on 10 De-
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;PANAMA: The government is cracking down hard
on th"6" efforts by the business community to organ-
ize itself politically. At the same time, it is
showing increasing toleration of the left.
General Torrijos has promised legislative elec-
tions next year, but he has been concerned that the
oligarchy-dominated parties which he displaced
might attempt to reassert their influence and chal-
lenge his position. The government, therefore,
reacted sharply last week when a group of about 60
businessmen and former political leaders met to
plan electoral strategy and to protest government
policy, which has led to increases in the minimum
wage and payment of one extra month salary to all
workers.
A government--controlled newspaper immediately
published photographs of persons attending the meet-
ing and denounced the group as "enemies of the peo-
ple." When a member of the group subsequently
criticized the government attack on radio, he was
arrested and the radio station was suspended from
broadcasting for 90 days.
The regime has been permitting the Communist
Party to operate and to consolidate its position
among peasant, urban labor, and student groups.
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These students plan to demonstrate on 14 December
in front of the Foreign Ministry in order to sup-
port the government's hard line on canal negotia-
tions.
There is no evidence that this demonstration
will be allowed to get out of hand or that Torrijos
wishes to provoke a confrontation with the US at
this juncture. Torrijos is not adverse to maintain-
ing pressure on the US, however, and having boasted
often of student support, undoubtedly welcomes an
opportunity to demonstrate to the US that such back-
ing actually exists.
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Heavy enemy attacks ateey
akse
Increased fighting
Government-held location
? Communist-held location
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LAOS: Government forces in the Bolovens Pla-
teau area are coming under heavy enemy pressure.
An irregular task force was attacked near the
town of Thateng on. 9-10 December by two North Viet-
namese battalions closely supported by tanks and
mortars. Two of the irregular battalions were dis-
persed with heavy losses and are regrouping with a
third battalion just, south of the town. Another ir-
regular task force that had been operating east of
Thateng is moving to relieve these units, and air
strikes are under way.
A third irregular force also has been engaged
in sharp fighting on the Plateau itself for the last
several days. Two battalions northeast of Paksong
have been hit particularly hard, and heavy enemy
ground fire has severely restricted resupply and
medical evacuation. Additional irregular units are
moving to relieve these forces.
The North Vietnamese are reacting to recent
government efforts to disrupt logistic centers and
supply routes north of the Plateau. Their attacks
during the last week--the capture of Saravane as
well as the attacks near Thateng and Paksong--are
clearly part of a closely coordinated effort to re-
verse as quickly as possible the gains the govern-
ment made during the rainy season. The broad scale
of the fighting and the size of the units apparently
committed suggests that they have assigned a high
priority to the effort to regain this area.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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SOUTH KOREA: President Pak is claiming exten-
sive public support for his recent declaration of a
"state of national emergency." At the same time,
he has demonstrated that he will not tolerate oppo-
sition to this move.
Since the announcement on 6 December, govern-
ment propaganda has stated that veterans, business
and religious organizations are all supporting the
call for greater vigilance and military prepared-
ness. In addition, all daily papers reportedly
have acknowledged the necessity for restraint in
press reporting of security matters. As if to em-
phasize the importance of such restraint, security
authorities "interrogated" the editor of Seoul's
most prestigious newspaper on 8 December after it
criticized the emergency decree. Since then, news-
paper coverage of adverse public comment has almost
vanished.
The government is also pushing the new security
theme in its own institutions. :Prime Minister Kim
Chong-pil has called upon civil servants to estab-
lish a new "security posture" and the education
ministry has been ordered to give priority to "anti-
Communist education, military training and air de-
fense training," and to institute strict discipline
among teachers and students. The Ministry of Cul-
ture and Information has been instructed to "uproot
decadent tendencies" in the society. The govern-
ment also will seek legislation from the National
Assembly next week for additional authority over
military, and possibly press and economic affairs.
The tough attitude projected thus far should go a
long way toward cowing the opposition into support-
ing the new legislation.
Pak's declaration of an "emergency" was de-
signed to strengthen his grip on domestic affairs
rather than respond to any real threat from the
north. Such strong measures against so many seg-
ments of Korean society could, however, nurture
public opposition to him.
11 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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