CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020600070001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 4, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
OSD & DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
Np 042
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No. 0290/71
4 December 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Situation report. (Page 1)
NATO: Foreign ministers probably will decide against
an early move toward a European security conference.
(Page 4)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Reaction to
Group of Ten meeting. (Page 6)
CUBA-CHILE: Castro affirms belief in need for vio-
ence to defend socialist regime. (Page 8)
ECUADOR: Castro's stopover may create domestic
problems for President Velasco. (Page 9)
TURKEY: Erim government has resigned. (Page 10)
YUGOSLAVIA: Party presidium stand on Croatian
problem Page 12)
PERSIAN GULF: Arab reaction to Iran's occupation
of islands (Page 12)
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Karachi .Hyderabad
A
R-} ann of Kutch
Arftld hacked fiy Pakistani aircraft
+Agra
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C INDIA-PAKISTAN: There is no clear cut evidence
as to which country initiated hostilities yesterday
along the India - West Pakistan border.
Both countries continue to blame the other,
but neither has yet formally declared war. In a
radio address yesterday, Prime Minister Gandhi as-
serted that the Pakistan Air Force had attacked
eight airfields in Kashmir and western India and
that the Pakistanis were shelling Indian positions
in the Ferozepore-Amritsar area, along the cease-
fire line in Kashmir, and elsewhere. The Indians
claim they downed three of the attacking Pakistani
planes.
Islamabad has acknowledged that it attacked
airfields at Srinagar, Awantipur, Pathankot, and
Amritsar. The Pakistanis claim that these attacks
followed repeated Indian intrusions in Pakistani
air space by Indian Air Force planes and ground
assaults against several locations in West Pakis-
tan. Indian officials hotly deny these allegations.
Indian aircraft attacked the Karachi port area
this morning, setting petrol storage tanks on fire.
During the night there had been heavy antiaircraft
fire over the city, but if Indian planes were pres-
ent then, they did no apparent damage.
The Indian Government has decreed a state of
emergency which is expected to be ratified during
a special session of parliament today. In Pakistan,
which has been under a state of emergency since
late last month, the government has ordered the
mobilization of ex-servicemen and "essential per-
sons." Pakistan has reportedly banned all commer-
cial flights into and over both wings of the coun-
try and India apparently has halted flights into
New Delhi and Calcutta.
In East Pakistan, major Indian Army attacks
continue on seven different fronts, according to
the Pakistanis. In the northwestern corner of the
4 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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o ss s79
MILES
Darteetinq
I N D I A
S IIongo
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C province, guerrillas closely supported by the Indian
Army appear to be making gains in their drive south
and the Mukti Bahini claim to have seized the town
of Thakurgaon. Widespread border clashes persist
in Sylhet District, and according to the Indian
press, the guerrillas now hold the airfield at Sham-
shernagar, following three days of heavy fighting.
The Indians also claim further guerrilla gains in
the Jessore area.
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NATO: Developments of the past few days have
made it more likely that the NATO foreign ministers
will decide next week not to make an early move to-
ward a Conference on European Security and Coopera-
tion.
Most of the allies clearly would be willing to
begin multilateral East-West discussions for such
a conference upon the conclusion of the inter-German
talks on Berlin, but they, including the British and
French, are likely to defer to the wishes of Bonn.
Although the Germans have been saying that they pre-
ferred to "join an allied consensus" on the question,
Foreign Minister Scheel has now convinced Chancellor
Brandt that West Germany should join the US in rec-
ommendina that the allies defer discussions until
after the Bundestag has acted on the Moscow treaty
and the Berlin accord has been finally signed. It
remains unclear, however, how strongly Scheel will
present this position in Brussels.
Bonn's new tack is based on the outcome of
Scheel's recent talks in Moscow. According to a
West German foreign office official, Scheel at-
tempted unsuccessfully to convince the Soviets to
conclude the Berlin accord prior to Bundestag rati-
fication of the Moscow treaty. The German official
claims that the Soviets did not seem impressed by
the argument that their position would delay multi-
lateral preparations for a security conference.
The inter-German talks are expected to be concluded
today, but the Soviet position could mean that the
Berlin agreement will not be signed formally before
next spring.
The ministerial sessions are also unlikely to
produce much forward movement on mutual and bal-
anced force reductions (MBFR). The allies recently
have grown increasingly concerned about the secu-
rity implications of such reductions. They there-
fore are not particularly disturbed by Moscow's
failure so far to receive NATO's MBFR explorer,
4 Dec 71 Central lntelligente Bulletin 4
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former Secretary General Brosio. The ministers prob-
ably will want to keep Brosio's mission on tap. Ad-
ditionally, they probably will endorse continued
NATO study of MBFR, will express their willingness
to negotiate, and will at least imply that it is
Moscow that has delayed MBFR talks.
The NATO defense ministers will also meet next
week, primarily to consider progress that has been
made in improving allied defense efforts. Chances
are good that the members of the Eurogroup--the UK
and all the continental NATO members except France
and Portugal--will announce full funding of the $420
million infrastructure portion of the European De-
fense Improvement Program. The Europeans addition-
ally will produce a detailed list of military hard-
ware already acquired or slated for 1972.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: The dead-
lock between the US and the of er Group of Ten in-
dustrial countries on international economic issues
was at least partially broken at Rome when the US
indicated a willingness to devalue the dollar if
acceptable contributions are made by the other coun-
tries.
Most foreign press commentators emphasize that
even though a final settlement was not reached in
Rome, real negotiations have now begun in an atmos-
phere of cooperation and--as one Belgian newspaper
put it--the "dialogue of the deaf is over." The
press generally credits US willingness to consider
devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold as having
provided the breakthrough. Le Monde in Paris cited
President Nixon's desire to go to Peking and Moscow
with solid European and Japanese support as a fac-
tor favoring monetary agreement. Several press ar-
ticles also noted the "common position" reached by
the European Community and the UK as auguring well
for future US-European negotiations on an equal
basis.
observers have noted, however, that even if
agreement on realignment is achieved, more funda-
mental and longer term issues will remain open.
These include the convertibility of dollars into
gold; basic reforms that would facilitate parity
adjustments and would reduce the role of key cur-
rencies; and the scope of future trade negotiations.
Some of the lingering concern that hard bargaining
still lies ahead probably also is attributable to
the lack of evidence on whether or not French and
German positions have come any closer on the rela-
tive value their currencies should have.
Reports that the dollar will be devalued have
produced widespread speculation against the dollar,
driving it to record lows on foreign money markets
while gold rose to $43.75 per ounce. The only ma-
jor currency not subject to heavy pressure was the
pound. (continued)
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'SE R
The Bank of France also is buying dollars to
prevent the commercial franc from breaking through
its ceiling, and the French Government is implement-
ing additional financial controls. Until now the
franc had not been subject to much pressure. Paris
now apparently fears that its present two-tier ex-
change system may no longer be adequate to prevent
speculation. Consequently, to preserve the stronger
bargaining position an unappreciated franc provides,
the government is enacting several measures to re-
strict capital inflows.
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CUBA-CHILE: Fidel Castro has affirmed his be-
lief in the need for violence to defend and preserve
"the revolutionary process." At the same time he
continues to advocate the peaceful path to initiate
socialism in countries such as Chile.
During his prolonged visit to Chile, Castro has
made a great effort to keep out of the Chileans' do-
mestic problems. During his farewell speech and in
response to antagonistic questioning from Christian
Democratic youths, however, he vehemently argued
that the Chilean "revolutionaries"--the Allende gov-
ernment--had the right and the duty to defend them-
selves against "fascists and reactionaries"--the
opposition political parties.
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Castro in effect stated
that the country's revolutionary process could be
effectively defended only by using violence. This
reflects his long held belief--based on his own ex-
perience--that any "revolution" has to be defended
against hostile elements. While he may now believe
that each country must undergo its own distinct rev-
olutionary process, he clearly is not discounting
violence as a means to maintain revolutionary im-
petus.
There are strong differences of opinion within
Allende's coalition over the wisdom of using vio-
lence against the opposition. Both the Movement of
the Revolutionary Left and most of Allende's hard-
line Socialist Party consider it a necessity, while
the Communist Party and Allende consider violence
usually counter-productive. On 2 December the Com-
munists reportedly took the position that government
forces shout withdraw from street battles with the
opposition.
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ECUADOR: Fidel Castro's stopover in Guayaquil
today could create domestic problems for President
Velasco Ibarra.
Velasco is determined to ensure that the valid-
ity of Ecuador's independence from US domination is
fully accepted in the third world, and he probably
hopes that Castro's.visit will score political points
at home as well. He does not, however, want a repe-
tition of the reception for Chile's President Allende
in August, when welcoming crowds added uncomplimen-
tary remarks about Velasco to their shouts of greet-
ing. Student and labor groups may attempt to break
through the security detail in order to get closer
to their hero.
Reaction to the prospective Castro-Velasco meet-
ing has been muted in Ecuadorean political circles.
Groups preparing for next year's scheduled elections
are apparently reluctant to take a stand before
gauging public reaction. Prominent armed forces
figures have not commented publicly
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ro told a news conference Friday th
to Ecuador he would stop over in Lim
at on his fl
a for two or
ight
three hours.
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TURKEY: The Erim government resigned yesterday
follows g he withdrawal of about half of the 26
member cabinet. Erim will remain in a caretaker
status until a new government is formed.
The 11 who resigned initially, causing the col-
lapse of the government, included two key deputy
prime ministers, the foreign minister, and the min-
ister of interior. In a statement to the press, a
spokesman for the group claimed they submitted their
resignations "some time ago" when they realized they
could not carry out the economic reform program that
prompted their joining the government. The techno-
crats who resigned became part of the Erim govern-
ment after the military leaders toppled the Justice
Party government last March.
The announcement of the resignations may have
been in reaction to Erim's appointment on Thursday
of a former Justice Party minister to the post of
deputy prime minister to handle relations between
the government and Parliament. The appointment was
generally viewed as a move by Erim to reconcile dif-
ferences between the cabinet and the dominant Justice
Party. Erim, for some time, has wanted to project
an image more representative of Parliament.
The resignations may also have been in protest
over the strong opposition in Parliament to the cab-
inet's land reform bill. Erim's draft land reform
legislation was recently severely weakened by a par-
liamentary committee dominated by the Justice Party.
Erim must now reassure the military leaders that the
military-backed land reform program is not being
blocked in Parliament.
The prime minister still has the confidence of
the bulk of the members of Parliament, but the dra-
matic move by reform-minded members of the cabinet
has been a blow to Erim. Much will depend now on
how rapidly Erim is able to form a new cabinet with
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men acceptable both to Parliament and to the mili-
tary high command. With the military deeply in-
volved in the current furor over the recent escape
of several terrorists from a military prison near
Istanbul, Erim may have a freer hand and more time
to regroup his government.
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YUGOSLAVIA: The party presidium adjourned
without taking action on Tito's demands for stern
action against Croat party liberals. While agree-
ing with his criticism of failures in the Zagreb
party, the presidium nevertheless expressed its
"full confidence" in the republic party leadership's
ability to overcome its problems. The Croat leaders
have the difficult task of developing corrective
measures to respond to Tito's angry denunciations
without bringing about a rift between them and the
Croatian population. Prospects brightened yester-
day with the end of the student strike at Zagreb,
the focal point of Tito's attack.
* *
PERSIAN GULF: Baghdad's diplomatic break with
Tehran and London over the Persian Gulf islands
tradeoff has brought little ore than moral support
from the other Arab states. Four Arab states, how-
ever, have asked for an urgent meeting Jf the UN Se-
curity Council to consider the issue. Egypt has
been discouraging this move because Cairo opposes
any airing of Baghdad's grievances that would de-
tract from the current debate in the General Assem-
bly on the more pressing Arab problems with Israel.
There is no evidence of any Iraqi preparations for
a military initiative, but if it should occur, Iraqi
forces would be repelled easily by the superior
Iranian military.
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