CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A020000090001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 4, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 18, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N?_ 41
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18 September 1971
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No. 0224/71
18 September 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist forces counterattack in
delta. (Page 1)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: Aftermath of
Group of Ten meeting. (Page 2)
JORDAN-FEDAYEEN: Terrorism and sabotage by radical
commando groups. (Page 3)
PAKISTAN: New civilian cabinet in East Pakistan
unlikely to win Bengali support. (Page 4)
NIGERIA: Government increases control over oil re-
sources. (Page 5)
AUSTRIA: Socialist Party confident of gaining major-
ity 1n elections. (Page 6)
USSR: Leadership's travel plans may complicate
scheduling of next Supreme Soviet session. (Page 7)
YEMEN (SANA): Muhsin al-Ayni to form new cabinet.
(Page 8)
UGANDA: Amin faces serious economic and tribal
problems. (Page 9)
HONDURAS: Disorders further weaken President Cruz'
government (Page 10)
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OF-i
SOUTH VIETNAM: Communist resistance has stif-
fened against South Vietnamese operations to clear
the U Minh Forest in the western delta.
Recent coordinated attacks on positions estab-
lished by the South Vietnamese 21st Division have
inflicted substantial friendly casualties and repre-
sent the most vigorous enemy countereffort since
the South Vietnamese entered the Forest in strength
some ten months ago. Two Viet Cong defectors and a
prisoner recently claimed that elements of both the
North Vietnamese 95th and 18B regiments were prepar-
ing for such attacks and there have been several
agent reports that the Communists may also mount at-
tacks in other areas of the delta to support indi-
rectly the planned campaign in the U Minh.
In addition to the need to counter the South
Vietnamese operations, Communist attacks may have
been timed for late September in response to appeals
from higher commands to launch attacks in strength
before President Thieu's referendum on 3 October.
Enemy units elsewhere in South Vietnam may
launch additional brief attacks in strength. The
most threatened area remains near the DMZ. Although
some enemy forces have withdrawn to southern North
Vietnam, three divisions are near the DMZ and any
of these could move south on short notice. The gov-
ernment's Lam Son 810 operation in western Quang
Tri Province in South Vietnam may inhibit the North
Vietnamese to some extent from returning to this
battlefield in the near future. Enemy units may
increase offensive activity in the central highlands
and other regions, but this is not likely to begin
until after the monsoon rains ease in mid-October.
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IN~RNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: The hard-
ening-of positions reflected in this week's meetings
of the Group of Ten finance ministers is unlikely to
change substantially before the Group's deputies
meet on 25 September.
That meeting, which will precede by one day the
next scheduled finance ministers' meeting, has no
fixed agenda. The lack of agreement on agenda mir-
ors the stalemate between the US and the other Group
members over the issues of dollar devaluation and
lifting of the ten-percent import surcharge. Be-
tween now and the deputies' meeting, however, an
OECD working party is to come up with a judgment on
the scale of the US balance-of-payments adjustment,
which it believes is necessary, and the impact of
that adjustment on other countries. The other Group
of Ten members, who also participate in OECD, ex-
pressed some alarm at the implications for the world
economy of a $13-billion shift in the US balance of
payments.
In related developments, the GATT Council has
adopted a report urging early removal of the ten-
percent surcharge. The report, drawn up last week
by a GATT working group, concluded that the sur-
charge was "inappropriate" and was not compatible
with GATT. It also warned that maintenance of the
surcharge could have disruptive effects on the world
economy as well as international trade.
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JORDAN-FEDAYEEN: A rash of terrorist and sab-
otage incidents in recent weeks
probably is largely
the work of maverick Fatah elements operating with
members of, more radical.fedayeen groups.
On 8 September a Royal Jordanian Airlines flight
from Beirut to Amman was hijacked to Benghazi, Libya,
by a member of Fatah. On the same day, the pipeline
carrying oil from Saudi Arabia's eastern province to
the Mediterranean was ruptured in Jordan not far
from the Syrian border; no organization has claimed
responsibility for the act. Two bombs exploded and
one was dismantled in Amman on 12 September, al-
though the incidents received no publicity. This
week, another hijacking attempt was made by a Fatah
commando, a bomb was placed in a Jordanian hotel,
and new breaks occurred in the pipeline in two
a group of
dissidents in Fatah, some in positions of consider-
able importance, has joined with a group from the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
to torpedo any possibility of reconciliation with
the Jordanian Government. This group is specifi-
cally targeted against Royal Jordanian Airlines and
is planning to hijack another plane within the next
three days.
he pipeline sabotage was a joint operation
o the PFLP and two other radical commando groups;
Fatah's complicity is unclear.
Jordan is intensifying its security precautions
and is pulling no punches in dealing with convicted
fedayeen. Two, presumably PFLP members, were re-
cently executed, despite the fact that publicity
given to their hangings will not advance the on-
again off-again "conciliation" conference in Jidda.
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PAKISTAN: The civilian cabinet appointed in
East Pakistan yesterday is likely to be of only
minor help in government efforts to win popular sup-
port among Bengalis.
The appointment of all East Pakistanis to the
new cabinet is apparently designed to give the im-
pression of a further step toward restoring civilian
rule and that East Pakistanis will be allowed to run
their own affairs. This latest action, however, is
unlikely to be viewed by the great majority of Ben-
galis as more than window dressing to disguise con-
tinued army control over the East wing.
Most members of the cabinet have been fairly
prominent in East Pakistani politics in the past,
and several have served in national assemblies.
Only two, however, are former members of the banned
Awami League--the party that swept elections in East
Pakistan last December--and these two are regarded
as turncoats by many Bengalis. Most of the rest are
from parties that favor a stronger central govern-
ment than does the League, and which did poorly in
the elections. Four of the cabinet members were
badly defeated in races for the National Assembly.
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NIGERIA: The government is moving to increase
its control of Nigeria's rich oil resources.
Nigerian demands for majority participation in
long-pending offshore oil concessions apparently are
about to be met. Producers originally balked at
giving the government a major say in management de-
cisions, but Occidental Petroleum has now presented
a compromise formula. It allows the government 51-
percent participation in the concessions but re-
quires unanimity on "major decisions," according to
an industry journal. Nigeria also would get produc-
tion bonuses and educational grants. If the govern-
ment accepts this formula, it presumably will become
the basis for negotiations with other international
oil companies bidding for offshore concessions, some
of which may refuse to go along.
In addition, an agreement has been reached for
the Nigerian Government to exercise its previously
announced option to take one-third participation in
the AGIP-Phillips operation in Nigeria. It already
holds a 35-percent interest in the local operation
of SAFRAP, a French-owned company, that it acquired
as a condition for allowing the company to resume
production earlier this year. Nigerian shares of
all ventures probably will be held by the recently
established Nigerian National Oil Company (NNOC).
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SECRET
AUSTRIA: Chancellor Kreisky and his Socialist
Party are increasingly optimistic about their chances
of gaining an absolute majority in the national elec-
tions on 10 October.
Kreisky's prospects have been improved by the
decline in the fortunes of the Communists, who are
not expected to win any representation in the new
parliament, and by some abatement of the public dis-
pute over the recent reforms of the armed services.
In the event that Kreisky fails to obtain an
absolute majority, he would prefer to form a coali-
tion with the small Freedom Party (Liberals), a post-
war party of quasi-Nazi origins. The Liberals, how-
ever, may not be the pliable and forward-looking al-
lies that Kreisky expects them to be. Their repre-
sentation in parliament may double to twelve seats.
Moreover, high party spokesmen have strongly reit-
erated the party's pan-Germanic sentiments. Although
these politically controversial statements were
framed in cultural terms, they will, at a minimum,
provide new fuel for Socialist opponents of a Liberal-
Socialist coalition as well as for the Communists'
anti-Kreisky campaign.
The challenge by the Peoples' Party to the le-
gality of the elections is still pending before the
Constitutional Court. Most legal experts, however
expect the court to re-ject the appeal.
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USSR: Scheduling a Supreme Soviet session to
adopt the new five-year economic plan may be compli-
cated by the leadership's heavy foreign travel com-
mitments.
A high legislative official reportedly has sug-
gested that the Supreme Soviet might meet in October
and December, thereby conforming to the frequently
violated constitutional requirement of two sessions
a year. A newspaper editor, however, believes that
the five-year plan will be passed by a session in
December that will also adopt the annual plan.
The party congress last spring ordered the com-
pleted plan to be submitted for examination by the
Supreme Soviet by 1 September but did not specify a
deadline for passage. The leadership's recent pre-
occupation with international affairs and their.heavy
schedule of foreign travel the rest of the year prob-
ably are the main reasons for the uncertainty over
the timing of the Supreme Soviet session.
There is no evidence that disagreements-.over
basic elements of the plan are delaying its adoption.
Work on the plan appeared to be progressing well
through August. The trade union presidium reviewed
a draft of the plan early that month. On 19 August
politburo member Kirilenko announced that the plan
had been completed "in the main" and reaffirmed that
it would be submitted for consideration by the Su-
preme Soviet.
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YEMEN (SANA): Muhsin al-Ayni has been charged
with ming a new cabinet to replace the short-
lived government of the former premier, Hasan al-
Amri, who was exiled after he murdered a local shop-
keeper late last month.
As a condition for accepting the premiership,
al-Ayni is reported to have insisted that the mili-
tary budget be trimmed and that a recent ban on
tribal subsidies be enforced. Although potentially
risky, al-Ayni's demands probably have the backing
of the high command of the army, which last week
called for government reforms, including a review
of the military budget.
As premier, al-Ayni will be faced with numerous
domestic financial and political problems and sev-
eral international issues, including whether to con-
tinue Yemen's support of the dissidents in Yemen
(Aden) who have been operating out of Yemen (Sana).
En route home earlier this week from his ambas-
sadorial post in Paris, al-Ayni stopped in Jidda
for discussions with Saudi Arabian officials. Al-
Ayni's relations with the Saudis--on whom the Yemen
Government has been relying to ease the country's
budget crisis--have been lukewarm in the past, but
have ,ap arentl improved,
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UGANDA: General Amin may soon face the conse-
quences of a rapidly deteriorating economy and new
tribal problems.
The economy, in bad enough shape during the ad-
ministration of ex-president Obote, has been further
aggravated by President Amin's failure to control
defense spending.
the Defense Minist as comma e e equiv-
alent of its entire fiscal 1972 budget, and the gov-
ernment will be hard pressed to pay upcoming bills
and government and military wages. If the govern-
ment fails to meet its military payroll, its posi-
tion would probably be imperiled by the tribalized
and increasingly undisciplined army over which Amin
seems to have exercised little control.
Meanwhile, the president, before departing on
a short European trip earlier this week, announced
that he would not restore the traditional kingdom
of the Baganda, Uganda's largest tribe, which was
crushed by Obote in 1966. Amin had earlier vacil-
lated on the matter, thereby raising hopes of the
tribe's elders that the monarchy would be restored.
Amin has so far enjoyed the support of the Baganda,
but now that support could Pasi1v turn to hostility.
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HONDURAS: Disorders continue to plague the al-
ready-weak "unity" government of President Ramon
Cruz. Demonstrations have tapered off but bombings
continue; there was a powerful explosion this week
at the offices of United Fruit Company in Teguci-
galpa. General Lopez, Chief of the Armed Forces,
has increased police vigilance in the capital city
and has repeatedly declared his intention to "crack
down." Little, however, has been accomplished, lead-
ing many Hondurans, including a considerable number
of military officers, to express the belief that
Lopez and Minister of Government Ricardo Zuniga are
somehow involved. The manner in which these bomb-
ings have been carried out and the duration of the
disorder support this belief.
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