CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019900090001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 27, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 7, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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No. 0214/71
7 September 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: There were
only.minor a justments in foreign exchange rates
over the long weekend. (Page 1)
LAOS: Government forces attempting to recapture
Paksong have been dealt another setback. (Page 3)
URUGUAY: Tupamaros? spectacular prison break deals
aadm nistration a stunning political blow. (Page 4)
YUGOSLAVIA: Tito continues to rally national sup-
port in preparation for his talks with Brezhnev.
(Page 7)
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: The effort to deter aerial
hijackings is making progress. (Page 8)
TUNISIA: Factionalism in the ruling party is under-
scored by the dismissal of the interior minister.
(Page 9)
ARMS CONTROL: Swedish proposal (Page 10)
Fishing agreement (Page 10)
SUDAN: Possible assassination attempt (Page 11)
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: A low
level of activity, with only minor a justments among
exchange rates, continues on foreign exchange markets
in Europe; apparent intervention by the Bank of Japan
maintains the yen about six percent above parity.
European officials are alerting the public not
to expect a quick resolution of the monetary problem.
Their motive seems to be to avoid a series of in-
creased expectations and subsequent disappointments.
Solutions will be sought at many informal meetings
scheduled for this month, as well as in the ad hoc
consultations now taking place among European states
in the wake of the Group of Ten meeting last week.
Market uncertainties probably will keep inter-
national commercial transactions at a reduced level.
Sales of ships on the London market, for example,
are reported to be at a virtual standstill. As time
passes, however, the postponement of normal trade
will put pressure on governments to move toward a
settlement.
The Latin American economic grouping--bemoaning
the status of less developed countries "left out" of
world councils on topics affecting them--has drafted
an appeal to the US cataloging its concern over the
import surcharge and potential foreign aid cuts.
These countries have also proposed that their inter-
ests be protected by the addition of a Latin American
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LAOS: Bolovens Plateau Area
tent
finer
P r .Laro
gam
Bon o
an a song Kong
Phok
ut
BolQvens
Plateau
? Communist-held location
? Government-held location
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LAOS: The government task force attempting to
recapture Paksong on the Bolovens Plateau was dealt
another setback over the weekend.
On 4 September, North Vietnamese forces mounted
a coordinated ground and mortar attack on three Lao
Army battalions manning frontline positions on Route
23 west of Paksong. The three battalions were dis-?
persed, with known casualties of one killed, 36
wounded, and over 125 missing. Army commanders have
begun regrouping these units at positions some ten
miles west of Paksong. Two irregular battalions at.
Ban Phak Kout now form the government's front line;
they are supported by two other irregular battalions
and an artillery battery situated near Ban Gnik.
Elsewhere in south Laos, the four-battalion
irregular task force that occupied Ban Lao Ngam
last week continues to be the target of enemy probes
and shelling attacks. The task force is patrolling
in the area to locate enemy positions and supply
caches as targets for tactical air strikes.
In north Laos, shelling attacks, ground probes,
and skirmishes occurred along the perimeter of the
Plaine des Jarres. Irregulars were forced to abandon
outposts both northeast and southeast of the Plaine,
but no major positions changed hands.
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URUGUAY: The Tupamaros' spectacular mass prison
break on Monday has dealt the Pacheco administration
a stunning, and perhaps crippling, political blow
and left security forces badly demoralized.
The administration announced that 111 prisoners,
including 106 Tupamaros, tunneled their way to free-
dom Monday morning. The adept operation highlighted
the imagination and daring of the terrorists and the
ineptness of the government's security apparatus.
The escape was apparently initiated from within the
prison, suggesting the complicity of guards. The
top terrorist leaders, including Raul Sendic who is
widely recognized as one of the organization's found-
ers, were apparently among the escapees. Despite
the widespread incredulity in reaction to the escape,
the operation was not entirely unexpected; a similar
tunneling effort was washed out by rains earlier
this year. This latest escape, together with that
of a top Tupamaro leader in July by way of a simple
ruse, and the mass breakout of 37 female members of
the band later that month have underscored the gov-
ernment's inability to operate an effective detention
system.
The escape, coming as the campaign for general
elections in November is hitting full stride, is es-
pecially damaging to President Pacheco. Basing his
primary appeal on a law-and-order platform, he re-
cently announced he would seek re-election, but the
escape will seriously undermine public confidence
in the administration's ability to contend with the
country's problems.
The terrorist breakout left the police in a
state of rage and shock--no search operations or
blockades were apparent in Montevideo by mid-after-
noon yesterday. Earlier this year, frustration at
the ineffectiveness of official measures designed
to counter the Tupamaros led to the formation of
counterterror units in the security forces, and
this episode will add impetus to those who favor
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C extralegal methods. At the same time, the already
formidable capabilities of the terrorist group have
been improved by the escape of some top leaders,
suggesting that violence, abetted by the election
campaign fervor, will become more serious.
In the short term, events will probably follow
a familiar script. The government has reiterated
its determination to hold the elections and maintain
a democratic system, and has announced it will soon
take measures to deal with the "grave episode."
Cabinet and other resignations are likely to be of-
fered, and the administration will use emergency
security measures to tighten controls on the media
and the population.
The leftwing electoral coalition, the Frente
Amplio, is already assailing the government's inept-
itude and will probably find its appeal enhanced
as a result of the latest government bungle. The
political stock of the Pacheco government has now
sunk dangerously low and only the implementation of
rapid and uncharacteristically efficient counter-
measures will save it from being a liability of the
incumbent Colorado party to maintain power in Novem-
ber?
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YUGOSLAVIA: Tito's visit to Zagreb, which be-
gan yesterday, is a continuation of his drive for
national support in talks with Brezhnev later this
month.
Tito's past successes in dealing with Soviet
leaders have been predicated on firm domestic back-
ing, and he will exert all his efforts to assure
this support. He has already taken steps to tighten
his control in potential problem areas along the
Hungarian border and is fresh from a speaking tour
of Bosnia-Hercegovina.
His visit to Zagreb is aimed at one of the main
centers for potential internal dissidence. The Cro-
atians began flirting with dangerous separatist
themes earlier this spring, but Tito--with the help
of the Zagreb party leaders--had effectively muzzled
the most outspoken nationalists by midsummer. Na-
tionalist agitation has recently begun to revive,
however, and Tito is determined to keep these trends
in bounds.
Croatian party and government leaders appear to
be cooperating. After a brief meeting with Tito in
Split over the weekend, they returned to Zagreb and
ordered a rousing welcome for his arrival. Extensive
public preparation for such visits is rare and almost
certainly is meant this time to set the stage for
major demonstrations of national unity.
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INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: A high-level conference
opening tomorrow in Montreal is another step in the
international effort to deter aerial hijackings.
The conference, expected to last about two
weeks, should result in the drafting of a convention
designed to cope with "unlawful interference" with
international civil aviation. The most notorious
example of such interference occurred a year ago
when the.fedayeen held three airliners for ransom
in the Middle East. The draft convention, the
primary impetus for which has come from the US and
Canada, is likely to outline steps for concerted
action--such as suspension of air service--against
states that tolerate such activities..
Meanwhile, an "unlawful seizure" convention
may enter into force soon, the requisite ratifica-
tions being nearly completed. Under its terms, an
adhering state in which a hijacked plane lands must
either extradite or prosecute the hijackers.
Several specific instances of interference are
causing severe strains, however, within the Inter-
national Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Among
these are Libya's interception and forced landing
of a British commercial aircraft last July in order
to remove two passengers. The ICAO Council probably
will pass a resolution condemning such acts but with-
out referring to the Benghazi incident.
A more explosive issue is India's ban on over-
flights by Pakistani commercial aircraft. The ban
was imposed by New Delhi in retaliation for Islama-
bad's decision to harbor Kashmiri "freedom fighters"
who had hijacked an Indian flight. The ICAO Council
has agreed to look into the matter, prompting India
to ask the International Court of Justice whether
the council has that prerogative. An early resolu-
tion of this controversy is not likely.
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TUNISIA: The dismissal of the reform-minded
minister of interior underscores the factionalism
within the ruling Destourian Socialist Party.
President Bourguiba dismissed Interior Minister
Ahmed Mestiri on Saturday and transferred his func-
tions to the prime minister. Mestiri, a strong ex-
ponent of reforming and institutionalizing the gov-
ernment and party structures, is often at odds with
the clique of officials surrounding the President.
His position has been shaky since early this year
when various persons close to Bourguiba were re-
portedly attempting to discredit him. Mestiri had
offered his resignation when the President returned
to Tunisia East June after nearly six months of
medical treatment abroad, but Bourguiba persuaded
him to remain in the government.
The immediate issues leading to Mestiri's dis-
missal involved Bourguiba's firing of two minor
party officials, appointing several new governors,
and replacing the chief of national security--a
close friend of Mestiri--without prior consultation.
Mestiri strongly protested that his authority was
undermined by the appointment of officials within
his ministry without consulting him. Whether he
will now retain his post as secretary of the party's
policy-making high committee, which is preparing for
a long-delayed party congress next month, or even
his party membership is an open question. When
Mestiri publicly resigned as defense minister early
in 1968, Bourguiba ordered his dismissal from the
party, but reinstated him two years later.
Mestiri's absence from the. party congress would
seriously weaken the faction seeking to create strong
institutions and an orderly presidential succession.
Conversely, it would strengthen a rival faction that
apparently endorses a strong presidency dominating
all affairs of both government and party.
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ARMS CONTROL: The draft comprehensive nuclear
test ban (CTB) treaty that Sweden offered at the 25-
nation Geneva disarmament talks last week reflects
the strong desire of the non-nuclear-weapon countries
that at least some progress toward a CTB be registered
soon. On the difficult issue of verifying compliance
with a CTB, the Swedish text calls for "good faith"
cooperation in international exchanges of seismic
data. The Soviet delegation at the Geneva talks has
recently indicated that Moscow might be willing to
accept an agreement that would be policed by an in-
ternational "nuclear detection club"--an arrangement
evidently similar to what the Swedes have now pro-
posed. Peaceful nuclear explosion devices, which
many countries including the USSR regard as poten-
tially useful in developmental projects, would be
exempt from the ban on underground testing. 1
USSR-PERU: Moscow has agreed to finance the
construction of what press reports bill as the
"largest fishing port in Latin America." In addi-
tion to providing for the development over the next
ten years of fishing facilities that have been
under survey by the USSR since early 1970, the con-
tract is said to call for the Soviets to install a
plant to process sea products and to provide housing.
The agreement permits the Russian fishing fleet to
use the port, on which construction is to begin next
year. The amount of the Soviet credit is not clear,
but in earlier negotiations Moscow had offered $30
million. This is in addition to $28 million made
available for agricultural machinery and heavy
equipment since the exchange of diplomatic recogni-
tion two years ago.
(continued)
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Numayri's plan to dissolve the council and to
install himself as president with full executive
SUDAN: Rumors are circulating in Khartoum
that an assassination attempt may be made against
Prime Minister Numayri before the presidential
election on 15 September. Other stories allege
that two attempts already have been made on Nu-
mayri's life since his return to power in late
July. Although hard evidence of impending action
against Numayri is lacking, there are some in-
dications that serious frictions have developed
between the Sudanese leader and two key members
of the Revolutionary Command Council. One of
them, the minister of interior, is said to oppose
authority.
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