CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019800010001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 14, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 42
State Department review completed
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No. 0194/71
14 August 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
JORDAN-SYRIA: Situation report. (Page 1)
LAOS: Military situation report. (Page 3)
COMMUNIST CHINA - BURMA: Ne Win's visit. (Page 4)
INDIA: Funds for refugee relief. (Page 5)
PAKISTAN: Problems in the jute industry. (Page 6)
CHILE: Problems of the government-owned airline.
(Page 7)
INDIA-NEPAL: Trade and transit treaty (Page 9)
LIBYA: New cabinet (Page 9)
VENEZUELA: The Andean regional economic group
(Page 10
COLOMBIA: Gasoline shortage (Page 11)
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JORDAN-SYRIA: Clashes along the border con-
tinued for the second straight day yesterday, and
Syria used jet aircraft against Jordanian tanks.
Radio Damascus claimed that the cross-border
tank and artillery exchanges had been initiated by
Jordanian units firing upon civilian and military
positions within Syria. The broadcast also alleged
that five Jordanian tanks were destroyed in the a
The Jordanian Foreign Ministry was surprised
by Syria's breaking diplomatic relations. The min-
istry's secretary general believes that Syrian Pres-
ident Asad may have acceded to radical elements who
may have felt a need--prior to a gathering of Libyan,
Egyptian, Syrian, and Sudanese leaders in Damascus
next week--to counter accusations that Damascus was
workin with Amman against the fedayeen.
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Government-held location
Communist-held location
Lao Nganj3I`
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Bolovens
Plateau
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LAOS: Government forces have met reverses in
their effort to retake Paksong in south Laos, but
have continued to gain ground slowly on the north-
eastern Plaine des Jarres.
Three Lao Army battalions operating north of
Route 23 were hit hard by North Vietnamese units on
11 August and were forced to abandon their attempt
to move toward Paksong from the northwest. These
units have withdrawn to Route 23 to take up defen-
sive positions. A new three-battalion operation is
moving northward to harass enemy lines of communica-
tion between Paksong and the main Communist rear
base area at Lao Ngam. Government units are also to
continue down Route 23 toward Paksong, but so far
stiff enemy resistance has blocked attempts to over-
run Communist positions about four miles west of
Paksong.
Some elements of civilian government are being
restored in Saravane. Presumably the government
forces will stay until North Vietnamese pressure
compels them to withdraw, although their original
plan had called for holding the town only a few days.
In north Laos, some of Vang Pao's irregular
units are now about two miles from Khang Khay, one
of the tentatively agreed-upon sites for Lao peace
talks should they get under way.
On the subject of talks, Prime Minister Sou-
vanna announced yesterday that his thinking at that
time was of responding to the latest Communist mes-
sage by suggesting that the Communists appoint a
plenipotentiary representative empowered to begin
negotiations alternately in Vientiane and Khang Khay.
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COMMUNIST CHINA - BURMA: Peking's restrained
public treatment of Prime Minister Ne Win's visit
to China suggests that relations have not yet reached
the warmth of pre-Cultural Revolution days.
Although the visit was given high-level atten-
tion by Peking--Ne Win was honored by a visit with
Mao and was personally accompanied from Peking to
Canton by Chou En-lai--the New China News Agency
(NCNA) limited its coverage to straightforward re-
porting. It has so far failed to publicize the
speeches by both sides.
An NCNA excerpt from Chou's toast at a banquet
on 6 August reflected the slightly reserved atmos-
phere of the visit. Chou expressed pleasure that
Sino-Burmese relations "have returned to normal" and
predicted that relations will improve further as a
result of Ne Win's visit; however, he omitted the
standard reference on such occasions to the five
principles of peaceful coexistence and failed to
praise the achievements of the Burmese Government.
Moreover, there has been no mention of the Sino-
Burmese treaty of friendship and non-aggression.
The visit nonetheless represents another step
in a return to the friendly relations that existed
prior to the 1967 anti-Chinese riots in Burma. Since
Ne Win's trip was described in advance as "friendly
and informal," the fact that the Chinese issued the
invitation at this time suggests they were prepared
to discuss such thorny problems as the question of
continuing Chinese support to Burmese insurgents.
Some progress may have been made toward the resolu-
tion of this issue, but the neutral tone of the Chi-
nese comment on the visit seems to indicate that
there is still some distance to go in fully settling
the problem.
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INDIA: Parliament has unanimously approved the
government's request for additional funds for refugee
relief.
New Delhi believes that the $267 million in new
appropriations, together with $80 million allocated
earlier, will care for the refugees now in India
throughout the remainder of 1971. So far only about
$11 million has been received from foreign aid
pledges of approximately $145 million, but India is
counting on receipts of about $95 million in 1971
to help offset some of the costs. A million addi-
tional refugees crossed over into India last month,
pushing the total number to an estimated 7.5 million.
The new appropriation may push India's budgetary
deficit for the year to over $500 million. The gov-
ernment, concerned about resultant inflationary pres-
sures, is proposing to reduce non-plan expenditures
and to tighten tax coll
ections.
The
US Embassy in
New Delhi, however, is
doubtful
that
the government
can make a dent in the
projected
deficit by either
of these methods.
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PAKISTAN: Foreign exchange revenues will be
seriously affected by mounting problems in the jute
industry in East Pakistan.
Export earnings from both raw jute and jute
manufactures may decline this calendar year by as
much as one quarter despite relatively high world
jute prices. Last year, jute exports amounted to
over $300 million, or 45 percent of Pakistan's total
exports. The jute crop, now being harvested, is
estimated at almost 20 percent below that of last
year. Acreage declined by one fifth and planted
fields went untended because many farmers fled or
went into hiding after the military crackdown.
Although almost all mills have now reopened,
production is still only half of normal. Abnormally
high inventories resulting from mill shutdowns from
March to June could help overcome the production
shortfall, but laborers are still terrified of the
army and afraid of guerrilla retaliation should they
return to work. Internal jute shipments are hampered
by the lack of security for water transport and by
shortages of barges and tugs, many of which were de-
stroyed or confiscated by the military.
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CHILE: The government-owned airline (LAN) is
hard pressed to keep its operations abreast of Chil-
ean international relations.
LAN recently
told the Chilean Civil Aviation Board hat it cannot
afford to include Havana on its route to'Europe and
wants negotiations on the Cuban stop to be suspended.
According to LAN, the Castro government has reneged
on a commitment to guarantee a high occupancy rate
on, LAN flights from Havana to Madrid.
The only round-trip flight via Havana, made in
July under the much-publicized Cuban-Chilean air
agreement of last February, reportedly reached Madrid
with many empty seats. In addition, the French and
German governments have raised obstacles that compli-
cate the inclusion of Havana. The schedule for fu-
ture LAN flights on that route is in doubt, posing
a problem for Cuban Foreign Minister Raul Roa's
scheduling of his visit to Chile next week. Bi-
monthly Cuban flights between Santiago and Havana
continue.
Meanwhile, Brazil has belatedly approved LAN's
request for landing rights on its Santiago-Europe
run,
Earlier this year LAN's ambitious route expan-
sion, reaching from Frankfurt to Tahiti, was over-
straining the airline's limited equipment and sched-
ules were not being met.
were reportedly considered but rejected as an alter-
native.
increasing the number of US aircraft, already used
exclusively in LAN overseas routes. British VC10s
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The airline executives pre ter for technical
and economic reasons to fill their growing needs by
(continued)
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Chile is also short of cargo aircraft, and this
may have an effect on the Allende government's abil-
ity to meet growing food shortages. A lack of planes
reportedly is hampering the administration's emer-
gency efforts to fly in beef from Argentina.
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INDIA-NEPAL: On 13 August the two countries
signed a new trade and transit treaty, replacing one
that expired last October. In the interim, numerous
negotiating sessions failed to break the deadlock
and bilateral relations dipped to one of their low-
est points in a decade. As a landlocked underde-
veloped country almost totally dependent on India as
a trading partner, Nepal had little choice but fi-
nally to agree to Indian demands, particularly for
measures to check smuggling into India. The Paki-
stani crisis probably encouraged Nepal to give up
its insistence for a land route to East Pakistan via
India. The new treaty--whose specifics will be re-
leased in a day or two--should provide sound footin
for improved Indo-Nepalese relations. 17
LIBYA: Prime Minister Qadhafi's announcement of
a largely civilian cabinet yesterday appears to be
yet another move to give the Libyan people the illu-
sion of greater participation in their government.
That these changes are mainly cosmetic is evident in
the fact that Qadhafi and his two ranking colleagues
from the Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) hold all
the significant ministries. Four members of the RCC
were replaced by civilians and have apparently re-
turned to solely RCC duties. In line with his ear-
lier promises, Qadhafi recently has also formed an
Arab Socialist Union party and has scheduled the pop-
ular ratification of the proposed federation with
Egypt and Syria. The cabinet change might be another
"accomplishment" for Qadhafi to note at his regime's
second anniversary on 1 September. F77 I
(continued)
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VENEZUELA: President Caldera is trying to reach
a national consensus on joining the Andean regional
economic group, comprising Chile, Peru, Ecuador,
Colombia, and Bolivia. At a government-sponsored
forum, membership in this grouping is being presented
as the country's most promising integration option.
A government position paper rejects association with
the Central American Common Market and the Caribbean
Free Trade Association because their markets are too
small. At the same time Venezuela, fearing Brazilian
and Mexican domination, is reluctant to confine it-
self to the Latin American Free Trade Association.
Venezuela declined to join the Andean grouping when
it was created in 1969, largely because of strong
opposition from influential industrial interests,
but Caracas has recently renewed negotiations to de-
termine the terms hick it might enter.
(continued)
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COLOMBIA: A violent and destructive strike pro-
testing layoffs at the country's largest oil refinery
has led to gasoline shortages that may continue for
several months. Military intervention at the state-
owned complex at Barrancabermeja obliged striking
workers and supervisory personnel to release 17 en-
gineers being held hostage, but was unable to prevent
some $5 million in physical damage to the refinery.
Because the initial resumption of production is ex-
pected to be at one fifth of normal capacity, the
government has asked for voluntary reductions in con-
sumption to avoid rationing of fuel and reportedly
intends to import gasoline from Aruba. The military
is investigating what is officially called the "il-
legal" strike, and plans to court-martial the "sub-
versives" and "agitators" involved. The government's
unusually forceful action averted a national trans-
port paralysis, but may have angered labor suffi-
ciently to provoke add' ional strike calls.
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