CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019600030001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 23, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed
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No. 0175/71
23 July 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
SUDAN: A countercoup has apparently succeeded.
(Page 1)
ARMS CONTROL: The Soviet draft treaty on biologi-
cal weapons has accommodated substantially the
changes desired by the US. (Page 2)
JAPAN: Mounting criticism may cause Sato to re-
sign later this year. (Page 3)
FRANCE: The government is tightening its monetary
policy. (Page 5)
CHILE: The opposition Christian Democrats now hold
the leadership of both houses of Congress. (Page 6)
TURKEY: Martial law extension (Page 7)
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C SUDAN: Forces loyal to General Jaffar Numayri
apparently have successfully moved against the Com-
munist-affiliated junta that ousted Numayri on 19
July.
Tank and small-arms fire was observed through
out Khartoum yesterday, according to the US Interests
Section, as Numayri supporters regained control of
the radio and television stations. Numayri announced
by radio and television the restoration of his gov-
ernment and directed the armed forces and the people
to begin an all-out search for Communists. At night-
fall the city had become quiet and only scattered
shooting was being reported.
Early yesterday the Libyan Government, which
has a long-standing antipathy for Sudanese Commu-
nists, forced the BOAC airliner carrying two members
of the anti-Numayri government, Babakr al-Nur Uthman
and Faruq Hamdallah, to land at Benghazi. The two
men were removed from the aircraft by Libyan author-
ities, an act that drew an angry British protest.
Shortly thereafter, the shooting began in Khartoum
and the leader of the anti-Numayri forces, Colonel
Hashim al-Atta called for resistance to "foreign
intervention." Numayri later announced that al-Atta
had escaped.
The chances of success for Numayri's counter-
coup are enhanced by the fact that his opposition
had only three days in which to consolidate their
power. Numayri's plea for a roundup of Communists
is in line with his efforts since last fall to re-
move them from cabinet and other government posts.
23 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ARMS CONTROL: The USSR has substantially
accommodated the changes desired by the US in the
Soviet draft treaty on biological weapons (BW).
Ambassador Roshchin, chief of the Soviet
delegation to the Geneva disarmament talks, in-
formed Ambassador Leonard Wednesday of Soviet
acceptance of virtually all the proposed US re-
visions. The Soviets have modified five of the
US points, but even the modifications mark con-
siderable movement toward the US position. The
Soviet response could lead to agreement in Geneva
this summer on a BW convention to be submitted
to the UN General Assembly this fall.
The door was opened for the current progress
by Soviet presentation in March of a draft BW
convention dropping Moscow's previous insistence
on an all-embracing treaty to include chemical
weapons (CW). Ambassadors Roshchin and Leonard
will consult further in the days ahead on how to
submit an agreed US-Soviet text to the other
conferees in Geneva. Roshchin has indicated
that the Soviets are flexible on this question,
and that the basic Soviet desire is to handle
it in a way that will develop maximum support
among the nonaligned delegates. Although the
latter still would prefer a joint BW-CW conven-
tion and are urging rapid progress on CW, they
deny any intention to obstruct agreement on a
treaty limited to BW.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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JAPAN: Mounting criticism over the China issue
has a ecc impetus to speculation that Prime Minister
Sato may resign later this year.
Former foreign minister Ohira, a leading aspir-
ant to succeed Sato, told the US ambassador on 20
July that the prime minister would probably step
down following Diet ratification of the Okinawan re-
version agreement in late fall. Other party leaders
have also recently evinced a rising lack of confi-
dence in the prime minister? whose unprecedented
fourth consecutive term does not end until November
1972.
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The prime minister now faces a dilemma: his
flexibility on China is somewhat limited by his
right wing supporters' close political and economic
ties with Taiwan, while rivals within the LDP are
prepared to abandon his ship if it appears to be
foundering over the China issue.
Ohira claimed that the question of Sato's suc-
cessor was far from settled. He suggested that dis-
sident LDP members might be willing to join with op-
position parties to elect an LDP leader as prime
minister who was not the official party candidate.
This was a reference to opposition within the party
to Foreign Minister Fukuda, who is widely regarded
as Sato's heir apparent. Ohira speculated that who-
ever succeeds Sato would have to call general elec-
tions promptly to seek a popular mandate. He claimed
that the LDP would suffer a "substantial" loss in
Diet strength as a result of such elections.
23 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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FRANCE: The government is tightening its mone-
tary controls to slow inflation and squelch rumors
of revaluation.
The Bank of France has raised the reserve re-
quirements for commercial banks by another percent,
the third such increase in two months. The move,
prompted by the recent strengthening of the franc
on foreign-exchange markets and heavy inflows of
funds into France, is aimed at slowing inflation
by braking the rapid monetary expansion. It also
is designed to suppress rumors that the government
is considering revaluation as a means of coping
with inflation. In the first three months of this
year, the money supply was expanding at an annual
rate of 30 percent. This has now been slowed to
15 percent, but it is still well above the growth
of gross national product. Prices are rising at
an annual rate of nearly seven percent.
With wage rates rising at around ten percent
a year, and with contracts in several of the public-
sector industries pegged to the cost of living, a
key political objective is to moderate the rate of
inflation. Added pressures, however, will make this
objective difficult to achieve. These include higher
import costs stemming from the floating of the German
mark and Dutch guilder and another substantial rise
in French farm prices, scheduled for next month,
which will bring them to the levels of those of its
partners in the European Community.
23 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Opposition Christian Democrats now
hold the leadership of both houses of Congress.
The election of Fernando Sanhueza as president
of the Chamber of Deputies on 20 July gives the
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) all three top posts
there. The PDC won the leadership of the Senate
earlier this year. Sanhueza was elected without the
support of the conservative National Party (PN), but
this probably does not indicate abandonment of the
hard-won opposition cooperation that defeated the
government in last week's legislative by-election.
The PDC is still the largest political party
in Chile; it has the largest congressional represen-
tation, and with the PN and a smaller opposition
party makes up a majority in both congressional
houses. The leadership posts are not powerful, but
they provide prestige and some procedural leverage
that could be useful in implementing stronger op-
position tactics against the government's Popular
Unity (UP) coalition.
Congressional opposition thus far has not been
a serious obstacle to Allende. If trouble is cer-
tain, as in the case of control of banking, he has
bypassed the legislature. Now, however, the govern-
ment faces increasing problems in transforming Chile
into a socialist system. The UP may, therefore,
proceed with its reported plans for a propaganda
campaign to discredit the opposition, particularly
the Congress, in an effort to emphasize the need
for a unicameral assembly, which was part of Allende's
campaign program. The UP believes that it can create
such an assembly more responsive to its control and
may use the constitutionally acceptable resort to a
national plebescite to push the issue if the coali-
tion decides it could win such a test.
23 Jul 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NOTE
TURKEYS A second 60-day extension of martial
law, due to expire on Monday, appears to be a vir-
tual certainty. Eleven of Turkey?s 67 provinces,
embracing all major cities and sensitive areas, were
placed under military control on 26 April following
a period of increasing violence by leftist radicals.
The situation now is generally quiet and many known
terrorists who have been arrested in recent months
are being tried in military courts. Twenty-one al-
leged terrorists under indictment face the death
penalty; several other key figures remain at large.
Although Prime Minister Erim has publicly declared
his hope for an early end to martial law, he prob-
ably will not press for it at this time.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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