CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A019000020001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 23, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 8, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
USAID, State Department reviews completed
N2 040
8 May .1971
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No. 0110/71
8 May 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
EGYPT: A cabinet reshuffle is reported imminent.
(Page 1)
EAST PAKISTAN: The food situation. (Page 3)
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SITUATION: Opposition to
change in the mark. (Page 6)
ZAMBIA: Party factionalism (Page 7)
PERU: Squatters (Page 7)
USSR-THAILAND: Air service (Page 8)
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EGYPT: The US Interests Section in Cairo be-
lieves that a major cabinet reshuffle is imminent.
The reputed scenario,
calls for Prime Minister
Mahmud Fawzi to move up to the vice presidential
post vacant since All Sabri's dismissal. The can-
didates for the prime minister's office reportedly
include Foreign Minister Mahmud Riad, Minister for
Industry, Petroleum, and Mineral Resources Aziz
Sidqi, and Minister of Interior Sharawi Goma. All
three now serve concurrently as deputy premiers.
Septuagenarian Fawzi, widely respected for his
long and distinguished diplomatic career, has served
largely as a figurehead in the government formed
last October after Nasir's death. Riad is princi-
pally known for his capable stewardship of the For-
eign Ministry over the past seven years. Sidqi has
been the primary Egyptian negotiator in the trade
and economic aid talks with the USSR.
Among those mentioned in the alleged realign-
ment, only Goma is known to have a strong political
base. His control of the security apparatus places
him in the inner circle of the three or four most
powerful men in the regime, but it has also earned
for him the enmity of some segments of the popula-
tion, particularly the students. Unlike the others,
who are essentially subject to Sadat's wishes and
control, Goma as prime minister would expect to ex-
ercise authority in his own right and to take pub-
lic positions of his own, even though his actions
to date identify him as a supporter of the Presi-
dent.
8 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Area ............ 56,000 sq. miles
Population ........ 70 million
Population density . . .1,250 per sq. mile
N D=; i A
pDACCA
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Mymensingh
?
EAST PAKISTAN
Cincinnati,
EAS -
PAKIST
Atlan
Sylhet'
Chittagong
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EAST PAKISTAN: The food situation is becoming
critical in many sectors.
Although Islamabad insists that food stocks in
the East are adequate and has refused so far to al-
low international relief agencies like the Red Cross
into the province, senior government officials in
West Pakistan have admitted the possibility of fam-
ine in certain areas later this year. The coastal
area devastated by the November 1970 cyclone is
probably in the worst shape at the present time,
and government stocks for that area are almost ex-
hausted. The military, however, claimed to have
made one airdrop of foodgrains earlier this week.
Official stocks appear sufficient to maintain
urban areas until early July, but distribution of
foodgrains in rural areas is the immediate problem.
Extensive damage to East Pakistan's internal trans-
portation network as well as priority given to mil-
itary shipments make distribution from government
warehouses almost impossible without extreme emer-
gency measures.
The major port of Chittagong has recently
started operating after being closed for more than
a month, but only about 5,000 tons of foodgrains are
being unloaded per week compared with a port capac-
ity of about 40,000 tons. Ships containing 80,000
tons of grain were lying at anchor unable to unload.
The Pakistani Government has diverted some of these
ships to Karachi in West Pakistan, as well as most
of an additional 200,000 tons of grain en route to
East Pakistan. Unloading is being hampered by the
lack of additional storage space because there has
been no distribution from Chittagong, even to Dacca,
the capital. No foodgrain unloading has been re-
ported at the smaller port of Chalna yet. The US
has temporarily suspended shipment of 300,000 tons
of PL 480 wheat until the backlog can be unloaded
and distributed.
(continued)
8 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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There is increasing concern about the size of
next autumn's rice crop, now being planted, which
accounts for about one quarter of the total annual
harvest. With many farmers in hiding or fleeing
from the army, and fertilizer and pesticide distri-
bution disrupted, a smaller crop is in prospect.
The Awami League, which hopes to minimize the lev-
erage that control of imported food could give the
government and to increase the government's foreign
exchange problems, is urging farmers to plant rice
instead of jute, East Pakistan's main cash crop.
Even taking such a shift into account, USAID esti-
mates a decline of about 300,000 tons or ten percent
in the rice crop this September.
8 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SITUATION: Change in
the parity of the German mark, even in the form of
a temporary official "float," is facing opposition
both at home and abroad.
German businessmen, bankers, trade unionists,
and farmers object to a change. There is fear that
exports will be reduced at a time when the German
economy is showing signs of a slowdown, and farmers
complain that agricultural prices received under the
Common Agricultural Policy will be reduced. Eco-
nomics Minister Karl Schiller, who first proposed
the float, apparently could not win support of the
West German cabinet for a decision to float the
mark unilaterally.
At Thursday's EC Monetary Committee meeting,
Germany's partners opposed a revaluation of the mark,
a floating of the mark, or a floating of all Commu-
nity currencies. The finance ministers of the Six,
meeting today in Brussels, will look for a compromise
solution. They will probably recommend that Germany
attack the inflow by imposing a 100-percent reserve
requirement for, and stop paying interest on, foreign
deposits. Other possible measures include restrict-
ing German corporate borrowing in the Eurodollar mar-
ket and reducing the volume of Community central
bank reserves placed in Eurodollar accounts.
If the solution acceptable to the Germans is
not worked out this weekend, a floating of the mark
cannot be ruled out despite the opposition from
other Community partners. On the other hand, Chan-
cellor Brandt surely recognizes that to act without
the approval of the rest of the Community would put
into question his efforts to demonstrate that he is
committed to Western unity,
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
8 May 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ZAMBIA: The general conference of the ruling
Unite National Independence Party (UNIP) which be-
gins today is expected to result in decisions that
will help President Kenneth Kaunda control party fac-
tionalism. Party unity has been seriously strained
by tribal-oriented politicking ever since free elec-
tions were held for the UNIP central committee in
1967. To curb this tribalism, a new party constitu-
tion has been drawn up that is designed to ensure
that all major party factions will be represented,
but with none dominant, in the party's leadership
when new elections to the central committee are held
later in the week. The draft document, which prob-
ably will be passed by conference delegates with
only minor amendments, requires party leaders to sup-
port a balanced "official" slate of candidates.
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PERU: The military government faced its first
incident of mass violence in the Lima area since
taking power in October 1968, when police clashed
with some 8,000 squatters on 5 May. One person was
killed and 64 were injured, mostly policemen, when
police attempted to dislodge the squatters who had
seized an area just outside the city. To avoid fur-
ther bloodshed the police were withdrawn and the
government announced that the squatters would be re-
located in another area. This action seems to have
defused the situation but the incident has embar-
rassed the government, which claims to be the de-
fender of the disadvantaged.
(continued)
8 May 71
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USSR-THAILAND: Moscow has concluded a.civil
air agreement wit Thailand. Signature of an agree-
ment had been delayed for several years because
Bangkok insisted that a trade pact--signed late in
1970--precede conclusion of the air negotiations.
Aeroflot reportedly has been given rights by Bangkok
to fly on to several cities in the Far East and Aus-
tralia. Moscow has been trying to get landing rights
from Canberra for several years as part of the USSR's
efforts to establish round-the-world service, but the
Soviets have thus far been unsuccessful. Thai Inter-
national will have the reciprocal right to fly from
Moscow to several west European cities as well as to
New York.
8 May 71
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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