CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018500060001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 15, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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No. 0063/71
15 March 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
TURKEY: Discussions proceed toward forming a new
government. (Page 1)
ISRAEL: The prime minister's party should easily
defeat no-confidence motions. (Page 2)
IAEA: There is progress on safeguards negotiations.
Page 4)
CHILE: Allende reportedly believes that his own
party will not do as well as the Communists in mu-
nicipal elections, (Page 5)
? PAKISTAN: Return-to-work order (Page 6)
LIBYA: Qadhafi's whereabouts (Page 6)
LIBYA: Oil talks continue (Page 7)
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TURKEY: The situation remains tense but under
control as discussions proceed toward forming a new
government.
Prime Minister Demirel's government is continuing
in office on a caretaker basis pending the naming
of an interim coalition to serve until national elec-
tions can be held. Both houses of Parliament have
closed their sessions, at least temporarily. The
president of the Senate, a Demirel supporter and an
associate of former premier Menderes, caused an up-
roar in the chamber when he rejected the charge of
the military leaders that Demirel's government had
allowed the situation to get out of hand.
There is no evidence of dissension among the
military leaders, whose main concern seems to be
early establishment of a government that will crack
down on extremists of every stripe. Although the
make-up of the interim government to replace Demirel
may be revealed by President Sunay when he addresses
the nation today, it is more likely that this an-
nouncement will not be made until Wednesday. The
military would like a broad coalition in which the
members avoid partisan politics. They are not likely
to settle for anything less and may themselves name
one or more ministers, although not publicly.
One candidate for prime minister reportedly be-
ing given consideration is the 67-year-old independ-
ent senator from Kayseri, Suat Urguplu, who served
as interim premier for nine months in 1965 after the
resignation of the last Ismet Inonu government.
Urguplu's term in office was relatively unmarked by
political strife. This fact, together with his lack
of party connection, may recommend him to the mili-
tary leaders. Urguplu is viewed as clever and ener-
getic,
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C ISRAEL: Prime Minister Golda Meir's Israel
Labor Party should easily defeat no-confidence mo-
tions introduced by right-wing opposition parties
to protest proposals made by Mrs. Mei.r on ultimate
borders.
In a newspaper interview on Saturday, Mrs.
Mei.r called for an Israeli presence at Sharm ash-
Shaykh and retention of Jerusalem and the Golan
Heights, but implied that much of the West Bank
would be returned to Jordan. The Gahal and Free
Center parties., which introduced the no-confidence
motions, favor retention of most of the occupied
territories..
At yesterday's cabinet meeting, Mrs. Mei.r is
reported to have said that her. statement reflected
only personal suggestions and did not commit the
government. Nevertheless, the National Religious
Party (NRP), which is a member of the government,
announced afterward that it was not satisfied with
the prime minister's explanations and would call
for further clarification. The NRP is known to
favor the retention of the West Bank for religious
and historical reasons.
There is practically no chance that the no-
confidence motions will be adopted when they are
debated on Tuesday. In the unlikely event that the
NRP should leave the government and vote for the
motions, the Israel Labor Party and other parties.
affiliated with it would still control a majority
of the Knesset votes. The political tumult caused
by Mrs. Meir's statements, however, is an indica-
tion of the type of crisis which might occur once
the government attempts to adopt an official policy
with regard to the disposition of the occupied ter-
15 Mar 71
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IAEA: Agreements reached last week in the
special committee of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) should facilitate negotiations on the
safeguards required by the Nonproliferation Treaty
(NPT).
The key accord dealt with the financing of in-
ternational inspections. Virtually all of the veri-
fication work will be done in states that do not
have nuclear weapons but do have advanced peaceful
nuclear technology programs, and also in the US and
the UK, which have voluntarily offered to open cer-
tain of their facilities to IAEA inspection. Less
developed countries did not wish to pay for such
work in other nations,.and a compromise finally was
reached that generally reduces their assessment per-
centage for safeguards below that for other IAEA
programs.
Formal approval of this compromise by the Board
of Governors, probably next month, will help the
IAEA staff to proceed more vigorously to negotiate
safeguards agreements with most NPT adherents. It
should, moreover, increase pressure on the EURATOM
countries to break the long-standing impasse on
their position. Some of the more reluctant NPT sig-
natories will also be denied further excuse for de-
laying their treaty ratification processes. Insti-
tutional arrangements for a worldwide system of
policing nuclear programs thus may be reached within
the next year or two.
Throughout the lengthy committee sessions the
USSR played a helpful role. Moscow continues to
attach great importance to the NPT, whatever reser-
vations it may have about an experiment in enforcing
an arms control agreement by international inspec-
tion. Unlike the US, the Soviets will not open any
of their facilities. to IAEA inspection.
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CHILE: President Allende reportedly believes
that his own Socialist Party (PS) will not do as
well as the Communist Party (PCCh) in the municipal
elections on 4 April.
The PCCh electoral effort has been extremely
effective, and Allende thinks that the Communists
will improve their voting percentage more than the
PS.
The new hard-line leaders of the PS consider
elections less important than do their Communist
rivals within the UP. 'The PS leaders prefer rapid
and drastic moves to consolidate the Chilean revo-
lution, apparently believing that if they can set
the pace, they will ultimately emerge as the domi-
nant party. The PS central committee has issued
specific orders on the conduct of the municipal
campaigns.
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NOTES
PAKISTAN: East Pakistani leader Mujibur Rahman
has criticized c ed as a "provocation" a direct challenge
by martial law authorities to the noncooperation
movement which he launched one week ago. The au-
thorities ordered civil employees paid from defense
funds to return to work today or else face termina-
tion of employment, up to ten years imprisonment,
and possible trial by a military court. Mujib is
reportedly facing some pressure from within his party
to let some government workers return to their jobs
to prevent economic collapse. There are also some
in his party who would like'to attach conditions,
such as an end to martial law, b fore he agrees to
meet with President Yahya Khan. Nevertheless, Mujib
yesterday reiterated his wit ?ngness to meet with
Yahya without preconditions. J Strict enforcement of
the return-to-work order cou make it difficult for
Mujib to meet with Yahya, who is apparently in Kara-
chi but still expected to go to Dacca soon.
LIBYA: The whereabouts of Premier Qadhafi, who
has not been seen or mentioned in the press for a
week, remains the subject of widespread speculation
in Tripoli. A Sudanese diplomat claims that Qadhafi
met with the Syrian deputy premier during his visit
to Libya last Wednesday, but this has not been other-
wise confirmed. Some rumors have placed him in Mos-
cow seeking aid or in Switzerland taking a rest cure,
while others insist that he is "holed up" in Libya,
recovering from an illness, under house arrest, or
preparing a dramatic political announcement. The
US Embassy is at loss to explain his absence, but
believes that some surprise may emerge when Qadhafi
finally surfaces.
(continued)
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J ,K~
i yan of officials continued
to show some give in their demands for retroactive
payments and mandatory reinvestment--the main stick-
ing points. The meetings were notable for the ab-
sence of any new deadlines or threats by Tripoli.
The oil ministers of Algeria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia
continue to stand by awaiting a report by the Libyans
on the results of the negotiations.
15 Mar 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
LIBYA: Negotiations with the oil companies are
continuing; Saturday's "deadline" passed without
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