CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018300020001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 16, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 041
16 February 1971
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No. 0040/71
16 February 1971
Central Intellz~ence Bulletin
CONTENTS
LAOS: The Communists put heavy military pressure
on government forces around the Long Tieng complex
over the weekend. (Page 1)
USSR: The Soviets' expectations for economic growth
remain modest. (Page 3)
POLAND: The parliament has approved measures for
improving the lot of the workers. (Page 5)
PERU: The government plans to request US military
assistance and the reinstatement of the US military
mission. (Page 6)
INTERNATIONAL OIL: Negotiations with Libya (Page 7)
USSR-CUBA: Submarines (Page 7)
BOLIVIA: Kidnap threat (Page 8)
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,-lam Bac
Irregolar government battalion
begk s sweep operation
4P ?~
Luang Prabang
My
Heavy enu my
firer rode' _..
Xieng lKhouanguklle;
an Nay a.
Arr
Sam
Thong .KhangKho
}
7Long Tieng
Communist attack`';
14 Feb
k, S10
NORTH
VIETNAM
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.MiLi
LAOS: The Communists put heavy military pres-
sure on government forces around the Long Tieng
complex over the weekend, and more attacks may be
in prospect.
General Vang Pao appears to have the situation
at Long Tieng under control for now, following a
costly early morning enemy attack on his headquar-
ters on 14 February. An estimated two North Viet-
namese companies overran a 105-mm. artillery posi-
tion about a mile from the center of Long Tieng
town, and spiked the gun before withdrawing to high
ground on the southwest edge of the Long Tieng val-
ley. From that position, the Communists shelled
US installations and the base residential area, de-
stroying the main supply warehouse, the diesel fuel
depot, and billeting quarters. The electrical power
station, the air operations building, and Vang Pao's
home--which took a direct hit--were damaged, but can
be repaired. The airstrip and the main gasoline and
ammunition depots escaped damage. Government casu-
alties are still uncertain, but at least 11 irregu-
lars were killed and a number of civilians injured.
In the meantime, some 1,400 reinforcements ar-
rived yesterday at Long Tieng and were being de-
ployed in the town and along the high ground from
which the enemy mortar attack came. The morale of
the irregulars does not seem to have suffered ap-
preciably as a result of the Communist attacks.
To the north of Long Tieng, the irregulars'
position at Ban Na, which contains several key ar-
tillery emplacements, reportedly is under heavy
enemy fire. The site is surrounded by well-en-
trenched Communist troops.
Other ground action in northern Laos was
limited. Government irregulars are using the lull
to improve their defensive positions northeast of
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Luang Prabang and have reoccupied ridge positions
lost on 9 February. An irregular battalion has
been airlifted into position about 25 miles north
of Luang Prabang to conduct sweep operations.
On the political front
Laotian 'National assembly President
Phoui Sananikone wants to convene an extraordinary
session of the assembly to consider the worsening
military situation in the north. Prime Minister
Souvanna Phouma reportedly also wants the assembly
to petition King Savang to leave Luang Prabang and
come to Vientiane in the interest of his own safety.
The King had previously indicated that he intended
to stay in the royal capital despite any possible
danger. ""j
The nationwide state of emergency declared by
the government on 12 February so far has had lit 1
visible effect.
11 1
the declaration is intended only as a sop to the
military, which had been eager to have Souvanna
take this step. The state of emergency will, how-
ever, facilitate conscription and add a note of
austerity to the Lao scene,.
(Map)
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USSR: The draft directives for the ninth five-
year plan that is to be presented at the 24th party
congress, which opens on 30 March, indicate the mod-
erate expectations for economic growth that have
characterized pronouncements by the leadership dur-
ing the past year.
According to the TASS summary of the directives,
the average annual rates of increase planned for in-
dustry, agriculture, and other sectors are only
slightly above those attained in the 1966-70 plan
period. Given the somewhat lower rates of growth
targeted for new investments and the labor force,
the USSR will be hard pressed to better the overall
growth rate of 5.5 percent which it is believed to
have achieved in the last half of the 1960s.
Although data remain incomplete, the figures
at hand on allocations to the principal claimants,
investment, and consumption indicate a continuation
of recent patterns. The somewhat lower rates of
growth targeted for personal incomes compared to the
past five years reflects official awareness of re-
pressed inflation and pent-up demand.
Agricultural goals make clear that augmented
resources decided on last year to improve farm pro-
duction have not been abandoned. Special efforts
are pledged to increase the supply of meat and other
quality foods and to improve the overall quality of
soft goods and consumer durables. The announced in-
tention to hold the line on consumer prices, and
even to reduce some, clearly was made with an eye
to the recent events in Poland.
The announcement contains the usual pledge that
the plan will ensure the further growth of the Soviet
Union's "defense capacity" but does not provide any
clear indication of the relative share of resources
to be allocated to military programs. There are,
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however, enough references to priorities to be ac-
corded to defense-related industries to suggest that
defense's current share of resources will not be
materially altered.
Brezhnev signed the Central Committee resolution
approving the draft directives--further evidence of
his increasing primacy in the leadership as the 24th
party congress approaches. In the post-Stalin period,
such documents have appeared only over the imprimatur
of the Central ittee itself. Moreover, a although
the
directives were approve at a dust-concluded plenum
of the Soviet Central Committee, the TASS announce-
ment was notably ambiguous on when and how the Cen-
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POLAND: As the parliament met on 13 February
to reshuffle a number of government positions and
to make economic policy changes, work stoppages oc-
curred in central Poland.
A personal appearance by Premier Jaroszewicz
before the striking workers in Lodz appears to.have
damped down the unrest, and most workers reportedly
returned to their jobs on 15 February. Jaroszewicz
told them that improvements in working conditions
were being made, but that their pay demands were un-
realistic and could not be met with the government's
available resources.
The significant revisions in the 1971 plan and
budget approved by the parliament are aimed at im-
proving the lot of the workers. The plan now pro-
vides for more consumer goods, a reduction of food
prices to the level prevailing in early December, an
increase in the wages' fund to cover payments for
increased productivity, and the transfer of some in-
vestments to consumer goods industries and to the
development of consumer services. Taxes were raised
10-15 percent to provide funds for additional social
and health services.
The announced personnel changes suggest that
party leader Gierek is further determined to sweep
out officials responsible for former economic policy
shortcomings. Two deputy premiers in charge of eco-
nomic sectors were ousted, including one who also
held the post of planning chief; the slot he occupied
remains vacant. The ministers of foreign trade and
the food industry, both of whom dealt with areas of
immediate economic concern to the regime, were re-
placed.
There were less significant shifts in the par-
liament's own leadership and in the ceremonial Coun-
cil of State, Poland's collective presidency, caused
by the ouster of several of ex-party leader Gomulka's
associates from the party central committee on 6-7
February. The retention of Gomulka on the State
Council, however, bears out Gierek's statement that
the former first secretary would not be further pun-
ished, at least for
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PERU: The government plans to request US mil-
itary assistance and the reinstatement of the US
military mission.:;
..Peru is traditionally fearful of Chilean mili-
tary strength and has become even more distrustful
since the election of President Allende. Military
ties with the US have been at a low level ever since
the US military group was withdrawn at Peru's re-
quest in 1969 and was replaced with a seven-man mil-
itary assistance team. The government's willingness
to expand these ties is an indication of the serious-
ness with which it views the potential danger from
Chile
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INTERNATIONAL OIL: Negotiations now shift to
Libya, whose government will add its demands to the
pact reached at Tehran. Sharp bargaining can be ex-
pected on the tax increase and mandatory reinvest-
ment of a stated portion of oil company profits
that Libya is insisting upon. Threats of production
cutbacks or cutoffs are likely, as Libya is less
concerned than were the Persian Gulf producers over
reaction in West European consuming countries.
Saudi Arabian and Iraqi officials who will attend
the meetings in Tripoli may, however, smooth the
USSR-CUBA:ASoviet submarine tender and a
nuclear-powered N-class torpedo attack submarine
arrived at Cienfuegos on the morning of 14 Febru-
ary. U-2 photography
showed the submarine tender moore to e tour
buoys north of Cayo Alcatraz in the naval basin.
A Soviet rescue tug, which has been in Cuban waters
since last September, and the nuclear submarine
that came across the Atlantic with the submarine
tender were tied up alongside the tender. The two
support barges delivered to Cienfuegos last Septem-
ber are also moored there. A Kresta-class guided-
missile cruiser and a tanker continue their port
visit in Havana.
(continued)
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BOLIVIA: Members of the extremist National
Liberation Army (ELN) plan to kidnap a US official
in La Paz and possibly another in Cochabamba lI
Previous in orma-
ti.on indicated that the ELN planned to kidnap a US
official to inaugurate its urban warfare campaign.
In July 1970, the ELN temporarily held two German
technicians, but is has not carried out previous
threats against US personnel. The US Embassy has
taken special security measures. The ELN has been
relatively inactive since the capture of its leader,
Oswaldo "Chato" Peredo, in October.
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