CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018100070001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 28, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
41
28 January 1971
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SECRET
No. 0024/71
28 January 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA: Civilian fuel stocks in Phnom Penh are
nearly exhausted. (Page 1)
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KOREA: Disposition of the North Korean pilot who
recently crash-landed in the South is a thorny
issue. (Page 4)
ECUADOR-OAS: Ecuador is trying to'extract maximum
political mileage from the tuna boat incidents.
(Page 5)
CUBA: Castro has admitted serious difficulties in
the sugar harvest. (Page 6)
TURKEY: Left-wing labor is planning a large demon-
stration in Istanbul. (Page 7)
PAKISTAN: Party leaders are meeting to resolve
differences. (Page 8)
DAHOMEY: Coup possibility (Page 9)
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VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: Troops on the border
INDONESIA-MALAYSIA-USSR: Rubber (Page 11)
Page 11)
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CAMBODIA: Civilian fuel stocks in Phnom. Penh
are again nearly exhausted.
The US Embassy reports that, despite the re-
cent delivery of some oil products via Mekong River
convoys, industrial fuel supplies in the capital
now are depleted. Moreover, fuel oil` for one of
the city's two main power plants, as well as gaso-
line, will run out early next week unless fresh
stocks are received. Cambodian Army stocks are
expected to last until about 20 February.
A large POL convoy from South Vietnam was
scheduled to arrive at Phnom Penh this week, but
it reportedly stopped at the South Vietnamese mili-
tary base at Neak Luong instead and then went back
to South Vietnam. It appears that the convoy turned
back for security reasons; Neak Luong does not have
facilities for storing large amounts of POL.
In an effort to help meet the fuel crisis,
the government has charted four large barges and
a small tanker from a Philippine firm. Two of
these barges were to have been in the last convoy
and two more are expected to arrive in Saigon in
the next few days to load petroleum products for
Phnom Penh. Other emergency measures, such as
using convoys of.tank trucks to move supplies from
Saigon, are being used. Such convoys, however,
would have a difficult time meeting even the capi-
tal's minimum needs. It is not yet known when
Route 4 will be ready :Eor a resumption of petroleum
shipments from the refinery at Kompong Som. It
appears, therefore, that some fuel oil supplies
will have to be airlifted from Saigon to ensure
the operation of key industrial and power plants.
Even a partial blackout at this stage could
have a serious effect on the morale of the city's
population. More importantly, it would also fa-
t terrorists
i
s
cilitate the movement of Commun
throughout the capital.
28 Jan 71
Central intelligence Bulletin
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KOREA: Disposition of the North Korean pilot
who crash-landed his MIG-15 in South Korea last
December continues to be a thorny issue for all
parties concerned.
Pyongyang, increasingly frustrated by Seoul's
insistence that the pilot is a defector, is adopting
a more threatening tone in its public commentary on
the matter. A recent North Korean news service item
contained an implicit warning that unless the pilot
is returned, any South Korean or UN command personnel
who may be apprehended in North Korean territory in
the future will face indefinite incarceration. The
item claimed that in the past North Korea had dealt
"leniently" with the crews and passengers of civilian
and military aircraft and ships--including the Pueblo--
who had "intruded."
For their part, the South Koreans. may realize
that they acted too hastily in labeling the pilot a
genuine defector, because they now see him as a
possible quid pro quo for the remaining South Korean
airline passengers and crew hijacked to North Korea
in 1969. Even though some deal or swap may even-
tually be worked out, early resolution. of the' issue
seems unlikely because this is an election year in
the South and the Pak government is even more con-
cerned than usual about matters of prestige.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ECUADOR-OAS: Ecuador is trying to extract max-
imum political mileage from the tuna boat incidents
by formally presenting its case against the US in
the OAS.
President Velasco will gain little practical
benefit from this move, but he will continue to reap
favorable publicity at home and abroad. So far the
President has successfully depicted the seizure of
US vessels as the act of an aggrieved but defiant
victim of US economic interests. His decision to
request a special meeting of OAS foreign ministers
following the breakdown of negotiations with the US
was made because he knows that other Latin nations
will back him on such nationalistic issues as fish-
ing rights and the claim of a 200-mile territorial
sea limit. Yesterday's vote (22 to 0 with the US
abstaining) to convoke the meeting reflects this
solidarity. Ecuador will contend that the US vio-
lated article 19 of the OAS Charter, which forbids
economic coercion, when it suspended military sales
following the seizure of the tuna boats.
The current OAS special assembly dealing with
terrorism apparently will simply reconvene on Saturday
as a foreign ministers' meeting. The special assem-
bly is already having problems trying to hammer out
an agreement on terrorism and kidnaping and the as-
sociated issues of extradition and asylum. The open-
ing debates only emphasized the contrasting opinions
of such states as Mexico and Chile, which desire a
narrow convention that does not infringe on the right
of asylum, and others like Brazil and Argentina,
which favor a broadly defined agreement. Bolivia
has further complicated the situation by stating that
the UN is the proper forum for a discussion of such
a treaty. The Ecuadorean-US dispute in any event
clouded the atmosphere during these initial sessions,
and with
attention
now shifting to
the coming con-
flict
the
pros
pects
for success at
the current ses-
sion
are
poor.
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CUBA: Castro has openly admitted that Cuba
is having serious difficulties with the 1971 sugar
harvest.
During a conversation on Monday with members
of the National Food Industry Plenum, Castro said
that the harvest is falling considerably behind
schedule and that only 15 percent of the cane has
been harvested to date. Acknowledging that Cuba
cannot carry out this year's sugar harvest by
"traditional methods," Castro announced that the
"new" technique of burning the cane fields before
cutting would be implemented immediately in order
to increase the productivity of the cane cutters
and to save manpower.
Before the revolution, this technique was
widely used in Cuba but was abandoned by Castro
because it reduces milling yields unless the cane
is ground within a short time after cutting. Slow
delivery of cane to the mills has been a major
problem for a number of years, however, and wide-
spread use of the burning technique may again
force milling yields back to the very low levels
of last year.
28 Jan 71 Central Intelligence BuUetln 6
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TURKEY: Left-wing labor is planning a dem-
onstration in Istanbul. soon that could get out of
hand.
Up to 60,000 workers affiliated with the
leftist labor organization DISK plan to converge
on the central square to protest tax increases
and the high cost of living. A similar demon-
stration last June brought martial law to the
Istanbul area. Although DISK leaders reportedly
have discouraged extremist participation and have
stressed the need for nonviolence, they admit
there could be trouble. The Revolutionary Student
.Federation, which regards DISK as a participant
in the struggle against "fascism," may try to
exploit the demonstration.
Meanwhile, the tempo of the student protest
against the government's new policy of firmness
is beginning to pick up in Ankara and has spread
to Istanbul.
28 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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PAKISTAN: This week's meetings between East
and West Pakistani party leaders could determine
the form of the future government or whether a
constitution can be written.
The National Assembly, which will probably
hold its first meeting next month, has been assigned
the task of writing the new constitution. Mujibur
Rahman's Awami League will have a majority in the
assembly, but represents only East Pakistan. The
Pakistan People's Party of Z. A. Bhutto, meanwhile,
holds over half the West Pakistani seats.
Bhutto and Mujib are now meeting in Dacca,
East Pakistan, to try to resolve their differences
over the constitution. The most important subject
they will discuss will be Mujib's six-point program
for provincial autonomy, which in its present form
leaves the central government responsible only for
defense and foreign affairs. Bhutto is on record
as favoring a large degree of provincial autonomy,
but he apparently believes Mujib's six points go
too far in decentralization.
If the two leaders are able to reach a compro-
mise on the autonomy issue, other constitutional
questions can probably be settled fairly easily.
On the other hand, should the meetings end in clear
disagreement, it will mean that the National Assembly
itself will have great difficulty in drafting a
constitution acceptable to both wings of the country.
President Yahya Khan met with Mujib and Bhutto
earlier this month but it is still unclear what
success he had in laying the groundwork for con-
stitutional agreement. There are, however, several
indications that he was satisfied with the results
of the meetings.
28 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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DAHOMEY: With President Maga in Chad for an
African regional meeting, the Dahomean military re-
portedly is closely watching the outcome of a stu-
dent strike that began a few days ago. Although
student demands are apparently legitimate, the
strike is probably being orchestrated by Maga's po-
litical opponents. The situation could provide a
convenient pretext for inveterate coup-plotters
within the military to move against the government.
(continued)
28 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Colombia-Venezuela Boundary
NETHERLANDS
ARUBA ANTILLES
GUAJIRA
PENINSULA
8Sucaramanja
0
Banancabasmeia
cUa*cAo
WILLEMSTAD
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VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: Venezuela is reinforcing
its troops in the Colombian border area. This ac-
tion results from exaggerated estimates of Colombian
strength on the border, reports of Colombian over-
flights, Colombian reaction to mass expulsions of
their nationals, and a jingoistic campaign by the
Venezuelan press. As tensions increase between the
two countries, an armed clash along the border can
not be ruled out.
INDONESIA-MALAYSIA-USSR: Djakarta has begun
talks to increase its rubber exports to the Soviet
Union, according to press reports. The Soviet Union
normally imports about 300,000 tons of rubber annu-
ally, of which no more than 15 percent comes from
Indonesia and most of the rest from Malaysia. Any
sizable Indonesian sales to the USSR would mean a
reduction in purchases from Malaysia, because Soviet
natural rubber consumption is not likely to increase
very much in the next few years. Moscow may be
willing to buy more from Indonesia, however, to re-
duce its large trade deficit with Malaysia, which
amounted to $125 million in 1969. Indonesia, as
well as other Southeast Asian rubber producers, are
mounting a strong campaign opposing any future US
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