CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A018100040001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 25, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
40
State Department review completed
25 January 1971
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No. 0021/71
25 January 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists continue to prepare
for increased military action. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: The government is moving to reinforce
Phnom Penh's defenses. (Page 3)
POLAND: The government is beginning to draw the
line on unruly workers. (Page 5)
YUGOSLAVIA - EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Belgrade has
made significant progress in cooperation with the
Communities. (Page 7)
FRANCE - WEST GERMANY: Pompidou-Brandt talks (Page 8)
YUGOSLAVIA: Devaluation (Page 8)
CHILE-CUBA: Trade negotiations (Page 8)
ECUADOR: US fishing boats (Page 9)
MEXICO-USSR: Trade mission (Page 9)
ARGENTINA: Urban guerrillas (Page 9)
UGANDA: Disturbance (Page 10)
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TET CEASE-FIRE PERIODS
Tot Holiday January 27-29
Saigon
Washington
Communist
Begins
Jan. 26-0100
Jan. 25-1200
Ends
Jan. 30-0100
Jan. 29-1200
Allied
Begins
Jan. 26-1800
Jan. 26-0500
Ends
Jan. 27-1800
Jan. 27-0500
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SOUTH VIETNAM: The Communists continue to
prepare for increased military action, but most
information suggests that they intend generally
to abide by their unilateral four-day cease-fire
which begins at noon today (EST).
The Tet holiday period usually stimulates a
rash of reports of Communist attack plans, but
most of these do not materialize, and a country-
wide, coordinated offensive of the kind seen in
past years is not in the cards. Some enemy units
celebrated Tet early, probably to allow them to
reposition forces and supplies during the brief
allied military standdown.
Further preparations for post-Tet military
action, however, continue to come to light. The
areas most threatened include the northern prov-
inces and the sector northwest of Saigon near the
Cambodian border. North Vietnamese combat units
have recently either moved into, or are positioned
near, both of these areas and could be used to
put some pressure on allied forces.
Elsewhere, the Communists will continue to
rely mainly on their local forces and guerrillas
to carry on the war.
because o manpower an supply problems created
in part by the Cambodian situation, the expected
shellings and harassments are likely to be small
in scale. Enemy ground actions likely will be
limited to the more remote allied military out-
posts and field positions.
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CAMBODIA: Current Situation
Kompong Chhnangi
.Kompong Thom
%JKOYPONG
! ~,. CAA
l
d SPEt1 -'`
KOMPONG PHfOM PE
-..J j
-
. -\_ in Phnom Penh Mil tary PPL Depot'
Terrorism continuing
operations
FANKE 4al'.nHQ
Pick ntj ARVN-FANK ctearin
;it" JW
1,111 In VG %f r
eat
Re\i nh.'
Kompong Som,
(Sihl~SQuk,sIHey:
KampOtb,
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CAMBODIA: The atmosphere in Phnom Penh re-
mains tense as the government moves to reinforce
the city's defenses.
Several harassing attacks against government
positions near the capital were reported over the
weekend, but no significant fighting developed.
Cambodian troops suffered only light casualties
during an unsuccessful enemy probing attack on a
military petroleum storage area just north of
Phnom Penh. A similar probe of a government bat-
talion's position several miles southeast of the
city apparently was also quickly repelled. Jittery
Cambodian soldiers continue to submit a rash of
enemy sighting reports in the capital area, most
of which are still unconfirmed.[ Late press re-
ports claim that the Communists directed a_minor
mortar attack on the airport early today. 3
In the city itself, the third terrorist bomb-
ing incident in as many days destroyed a small
?building next to an electric company office yester-
day. No serious damage resulted to any power fa-
cilities, however.
the recent attack on the Phnom Penh airfield has
for the first time caused the population of the
city to question the ability of the Cambodian Army
(FANK) to protect them. Many residents reportedly
are particularly concerned over FANK's apparently
total failure to respond to the airfield raid.
The government has moved to strengthen Phnom
Penh's defenses by bringing in five FANK battalions
from Pursat and Kompong Speu provinces and reportedly
has ordered several more battalions now operating
along Routes 6 and 7 in Kompong Cham to return to
the capital immediately. The total number of gov-
ernment forces moving into the capital area remains
unclear at this time, however. Although these moves
will provide some reassurance to the city's popula-
tion, they are not likely to discourage or prevent
the Communists from carrying out additional harassing
attacks and terrorist actions.
(continued)
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In other military developments, FANK and South
Vietnamese forces are now engaged in clearing opera-
tions and road repair on Route 4, following-their
linkup in the Pich Nil pass area. The highway may
be passable for some traffic today.
Some of the South Vietnamese forces involved
in the clearing operations have already begun re-
deploying. One South Vietnamese ranger battalion
was airlifted back to South Vietnam nn 23 January.
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POLAND: The government is beginning to draw
the line on unruly workers, demanding work in return
for redress of grievances.
The decision to take this stand apparently was
made over the weekend, after large-scale work stop-
pages had recurred in and around Szczecin, a trouble
spot where the authorities had thought they had
largely succeeded in restoring peace.C After a se-
ries of actions this weekend, party leader Gierek
flew to Szczecin to address a meeting of shipyard
workers yesterday and was reportedly well received.,
Premier Jaroszewicz sent a letter to all government
ministers and directors of economic enterprises
calling for action to ensure normal production, but
also instructing management to resolve just griev-
ances in favor of labor. Because the letter only
urged the workers to be realistic and to oppose
demagogy, it is doubtful that the new leaders are
making a fundamental change in policy.
On Saturday, the US consul from Poznan was pre-
vented by police from entering Szczecin, but he
learned that the city was quiet. On the same day,
it was announced that the minister of interior had
requested a leave of absence for health reasons.
This was granted, but Jaroszewicz then submitted a
motion to the parliament calling for his ouster.
One of the six deputy ministers was also transferred
out of the ministry. The new minister, Franciszek
Szlachcic, who was promoted from a deputy's slot,
has a reputation for ruthlessness that apparently
is well deserved. Nevertheless, his appointment
most likely is intended to back up the demands in
the premier's letter and to signify a continuation
of present policies, rather than as a first step
toward a return to repression of strikers.
The ministerial switch suggests that the first
scapegoats for the killings and woundings on the
coast during the December riots have been sacrificed,
even though the ministers are smaller fry than the
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politburo members the workers have in mind. This
has been the workers' insistent demand ever since
order was restored, and the timing may be directly
related to the renewed work stoppages in -Szczecin
where there is bitterness over the many casualties.
Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be ruled out
that there is, or has been, di-sagreement within the
leadership over how to handle the continuing labor
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YUGOSLAVIA - EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Yugoslavia
has made significant progress in cooperation with
the Communities (EC).
At a meeting in Belgrade earlier this month, an
EC-Yugoslav mixed commission discussed Yugoslavia's
soaring trade deficit in the West. It was agreed to
set up working groups to facilitate Yugoslav exports,
encourage joint economic activities between Yugoslav
and EC firms, and extend certain trade preferences to
Belgrade. In addition, the Tito regime received new
support for participation in EC-sponsored European
scientific and technical cooperation. Yugoslavia re-
gards the meeting as highly successful and as another
move toward strengthening its ties with Western Europe.
The political significance of the meeting was
underscored by a hostile article in Pravda on 7 Jan-
uary warning "neutral European states" against "con-
nections in any form" with the EC. Romanian Minister
of Foreign Trade Burtica recently told Community of-
ficials that the Soviets are exerting pressure on
all CEMA countries not to recognize the Common Mar-
ket, but to deal with its members individually.
Burtica made this assertion during a recent visit
to Brussels where he indicated Bucharest's interest
in an eventual Romanian-EC agreement similar to that
of the Yugoslavs. However, Burtica said his govern-
ment must move with extreme caution because of Soviet
sensitivities. The Hungarians, at their recent party
congress, stated their intention to deal selectively
with the EC and predicted that the nat'nns of Eastern
Europe must ultimately reckon with it.
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FRANCE - WEST GERMANY: The talks which open
in Paris today between President Pompidou and Chan-
cellor Brandt will deal primarily with European Com-
munity questions and East-West relations. Bonn and
Paris took opposing positions in last month's dis-
cussions on the projected European monetary union,
but Pompidou's remarks at his press conference of
21 January suggest Paris now may take a more posi-
tive attitude toward the German view that movement
toward monetary unification requires some commitment
to future political integration. Brandt will no
doubt ask Pompidou for clarification of the French
positions on Ostpolitik, Berlin, and a conference
on European security--all subjects on which Paris
has made contradictory public and private statements
over the last few months. 7 7 1
YUGOSLAVIA: With the approval of the Interna-
tional Monetary Fund, Belgrade has devalued the
dinar by 20 percent to a new value of 15 to the dol-
lar. The change in parity, intended to strengthen
Yugoslavia's competitive export position and improve
its balance of payments, is part of -Belgrade's eco-
nomic stabilization program. Other decisions an-
nounced concurrently include payment of an addi-
tional six-percent interest on savings accounts and
the extension of price controls to rents, transpor-
tation, and other community services.
CHILE-CUBA: A 22-man Cuban delegation arrived
in Santiago on 21 January to negotiate a new commer-
cial agreement. According to a Chilean Government
official, the delegation, headed by the Cuban vice
minister for external commerce, is interested in
Chilean foods, wood, and manufactured goods. There
has been a limited amount of trade between the two
countries for about a year.
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ECUADOR: The government is continuing to press
its campaign against US fishing boats operating
within the 200-mile territorial waters over which
it claims sovereignty and is seeking foreign support
for its stand. The navy has now seized at least 14
boats and collected fines nearing $750,000. On Fri-
day, the defense minister claimed that if the US
cuts off military assistance to his country, the
government is prepared to give back US military
equipment on loan and turn to "other sources," pre-
sumably European, for help. The foreign minister
reportedly intends to criticize the US' handling of
the issue at the special session of the General As-
sembly of the Organization of American States meet-
ing in Washington this week.
MEXICO-USSR: A Soviet trade delegation report-
edly will visit Mexico in early February to try to
lay the groundwork for a commercial agreement be-
tween the two countries. Mexico is eager to develop
new export markets, and government officials have
said that future trade relations will be based upon
economic rather than political considerations.
Nevertheless, no decision has yet been made to sign
an agreement with the Soviets.
ARGENTINA: Urban guerrillas are increasing
their attacks on the security forces. A guard at
the presidential residence was shot to death from
a passing car recently, and last Friday a guard was
killed and two policemen seriously wounded by ter-
rorists robbing a bank to obtain funds to finance
their operations.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
(continued)
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C UGANDA: Explosions and gunfire were heard in
Kampala early today. According to press reports,
there were troops in the streets and armored ve-
hicles were surrounding government buildings, in-
cluding the residence of President Obote. Obote
has not yet returned from the Commonwealth confer-
ence in Singapore and it is possible that a coup
against him is under way. On the other hand, the
army is a notoriously ill-disciplined and faction-
ridden force, and today's disturbance could be an
outgrowth of personal and tribal antagonisms within
the military.
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Secret
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