CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 8, 1971
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900Stet
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
8 January 1971
Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0gj tjjWDP79TOO975AO1
No. 0007/71
8 January 1971
Central Intelligence Bulletin
POLAND: Shipyard workers reportedly are striking
again in Gdansk. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Petroleum stocks in Phnom Penh are
dwindling rapidly. (Page 3)
FRANCE-ALGERIA: Economic negotiations are at an
impasse. Page 4)
MALAYSIA: The flooding may have affected about half
the rice crop. (Page 5)
CEYLON: The government may call for neutralization
of the Indian Ocean. (Page 6)
CHILE: Allende has reviewed his government's ac-
complishments in the first two months. (Page 7)
HONDURAS: Lopez' plan for a "government of national
unity" could be partially implemented. (Page 8)
JORDAN: Fedayeen (Page 9)
EGYPT-US: Debt renegotiation (Page 10)
HAITI: Duvalier's son (Page 10)
Approved For Release 2003/ :, f DP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/ 7 61 -..k, 79T00975A017900120001-0
POLAND: Shipyard workers reportedly are strik-
ing again in Gdansk.
The US Embassy reports information from a high
official of the Polish ocean lines that as of yes-
terday the departure of vessels from Gdansk was
being delayed because of "a lack of workers." This
tends to confirm the strike which the Swedish press
claims began on Tuesday, but there has been no men-
tion of it in Polish media. The strikers are said
to be demanding that workers arrested in the Decem-
ber riots be released, and that Gierek come to Gdansk
for personal discussions with them.
Gierek will find it difficult to refuse to go
to Gdansk because he has placed so much emphasis on
re-establishing communications, lost by the Gomulka
regime, between the workers and the party. There
is no indication how Gierek will handle the demand
for releasing prisoners.
The new strike apparently has not yet affected
plans for a forthcoming central committee plenum to
analyze the causes of the December disorders. On
Wednesday local party meetings were held throughout
the country in preparation for the plenum. These
meetings centered on restoration of the "Leninist
norms of party life," which the departed leaders are
being accused of ignoring. Although this serious
charge is clearly aimed at Gomulka, he has not been
attacked by name and the theme has not been carried
beyond Gierek's original criticism of the former
leaders for a wide range of economic and political
failings. F77 I
8 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0w R IF
 Approved For Release 2003/0K:1&DP79T00975A017900120001-0
CAMBODIA
t3ATE DE
jinA1PONG SfiM
{JI OUKV111~
Approved For Release 2003/O Clti DP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0 1d fi1Q- pP79T00975A017900120001-0
CAMBODIA: Petroleum stocks in Phnom Penh are
dwindling rapidly.
Supplies of fuel oil and kerosene, used prima-
rily for civilian consumption? are close to depletion.
According to the US Embassy, Prime Minister Lon Nol
will apply restrictions on the use of petroleum prod-
ucts to ensure the continued operation of electric
generating plants and other essential facilities,
which may otherwise be forced to shut down before
the end of the month if resupplies are not forth-
coming. Military stocks contain a two-week supply
of aviation gas and about one month's supply of gas-
oline for vehicles.
The shortage has been brought about by the
closure since late November of Route 4, the highway
between Phnom Penh and Cambodia's only oil refinery
and deep-water seaport, and by the recent enemy am-
bushes of petroleum barges and a tanker on the Mekong
River.
The major oil, companies have been making emer-
gency riverine deliveries from Saigon to Phnom Penh
since mid-December. It remains to be seen, however,
whether crews and ship owners can be persuaded to
risk further runs up the river in view of recent
heavy Communist attacks.
Steps are under consideration to increase air
support for future! river convoys and to mount in-
tensified Cambodian - South Vietnamese ground opera-
tions to control river banks between Phnom Penh and
the South Vietnam border. Overland resupply efforts
from South Vietnam via Route l are also. contemplated.
It is not likely, however, that adequate amounts can
be moved in the near future, given the shortage of
tanker trucks and the continuing security problem
along the road. These and other contingency plans
should be able to meet Phnom Penh's essential needs,
but the shortages will make the war more immediately
felt in the capital.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0wZ"RIRLFDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
SECRET
FRANCE-ALGERIA: Negotiations on oil and other
economic pro lems re at an impasse and could break
down completely.
Talks between Paris and Algiers, aimed prima-
rily at revising their 1965 petroleum accord but
also at resolving other economic problems, have been
going on intermittently since late 1969. According
to French Foreign Ministry officials, Algeria in
late December rejected a major French offer on pe-
troleum prices and control of production. The offer
would have given Algeria one third (approximately
ten million tons) of the current annual petroleum
production of French companies, bringing the share
of Algeria's national oil company SONATRACH to 50
percent of annual production. In addition, France
offered to increase the reference price per barrel
of oil and to cede the Hassi R'mel gas field to
SONATRACH along with French shares in associated
pipelines.
Algeria's objective is to gain greater control
over petroleum production not only to maximize rev-
enues but also to increase the prestige of the
Boumediene regime. Its tough position has caused
Quai officials for the first time to envisage the
possibility of a breakdown in the talks with the
consequent danger of a rupture in the over-all re-
lationship. They believe Paris can make no further
concessions. Influential Gaullist elements, on the
other hand, are pushing the line that the talks
have "every chance of succeeding."
A breakdown could damage both sides. More
than half of Algeria's foreign trade is with France,
and Paris provides technical, educational, and fi-
nancial aid. For Pompidou, a collapse would se-
verely undermine his Mediterranean policy. He sees
Algeria as an important political link to the Arab
world.
The talks, now in recess, resume on 18 January
in Paris. France's position at that time is expected
to depend on a personal review of the matter by Pom-
pidou.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0 Q1A FjDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
SECRET'
MALAYSIA: West Malaysia's worst flooding in
40 years may have affected about half of the rice
crop.
Most of West Malaysia has been hit by more than
six days of continuous rains. Transportation and
communications facilities have been affected and
Kuala Lumpur has experienced power shortages. Rains
have subsided in the capital city, but another storm
is predicted to hit. the southernmost states shortly.
Ricelands were hit in the early part of the
harvesting season. Damage estimates are not yet
available, but any loss would be a setback to the
government's aim of rice self-sufficiency. The rub-
ber areas, however, are not believed to have been
damaged.
Kuala Lumpur has reacted quickly to cope with
the emergency. The US, UK, and Singapore have pro-
vided relief supplies and are assisting in their
distribution.
8 Jan 71 Central Intelligence, Bulletin 5
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/*RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
SECRET
CEYLON: The Ceylonese Government, concerned
by increasing major-power activities in the Indian
Ocean, may call for neutralization of the area.
The over-all tone of an official Ceylonese mem-
orandum prepared for next week's Commonwealth meet-
ing is relatively moderate and even-handed. It
takes note of the increasing presence of Soviet and
US naval ships in the Indian Ocean and of the greater
utilization of island and mainland support facili-
ties. The memorandum then warns that this will make
the area a "security satellite" of the major powers
and will intensify cold war politics in an area al-
ready subject to colonial, racial, and economic ten-
sion.
The paper advocates that no nation should be
allowed to monopolize naval power in the Indian
Ocean and that the area should be made a "peace
zone." The memorandum urges that the Commonwealth
lead the way in developing peaceful change and co-
operation among the states of the Indian Ocean re-
gion.
Ceylonese concern over the strategic use of
the Indian Ocean does not stem from a simple anti-
Western bias. At least some Ceylonese officials
are aware of growing Soviet activity in the area.
They fear that measures such as the recently an-
nounced plan for a US communications facility at
Diego Garcia will prompt the USSR to increase fur-
ther its presence in the region.
Prime Minister Bandaranaike will probably sup-
port any resolution at the Commonwealth conference
calling for the exclusion of "foreign" forces from
the Indian Ocean. She might even introduce such a
resolution, if only to refurbish her image in non-
aligned circles and to deflect domestic attention
from Ceylon's growing economic problems.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0~jjDP79T00975A017900120001-0
0XII
 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
SECRET
CHILE: President Allende has reviewed his gov-
ernment's accomplishments during its first two
months.
Before a rally in Valparaiso on 5 January he
belabored the Supreme Court for reversing a lower
court decision that stripped a conservative senator
of congressional immunity with respect to charges
connected with the murder of General Schneider last
October. He also contrasted the bank robbers he had
amnestied with those who allegedly steal from banks
by more subtle means. Allende was alluding to
Christian Democratic legislators who borrowed heav-
ily from state banks to finance political campaigns.
The President also attacked two of the remain-
ing anti-Marxist political commentators, adding that
he will seek to have the professional journalism as-
sociation police and discipline reporters. In an-
other move toward radicalization of the news media,
Regis Debray was named to Allende's press office.
Debray was released by Bolivia last month after
nearly four years in prison for involvement with
Che Guevara's guerrillas.
In talking about foreign affairs, Allende re-
affirmed his intention to remain in the Organization
of American States. He also said that Chile will
import 120,000 tons of sugar from Cuba, paying in
agricultural and industrial products. Imports of
this magnitude would displace supplies from other
members of the Latin America Free Trade Area.
The same day Foreign Minister Almeyda told a
press conference that consular relations would be
established with East Germany in late January or
early February as a preliminary to full diplomatic
representation. He added that Chile was interested
in diplomatic ties with North Vietnam but said that
this would have a lower priority. The Chilean Gov-
ernment announced on 6 January that the $42 million
in Soviet credits unused in the four years since
they became available will be drawn on to build a
fishing port, probably at Valparaiso.
8 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/08 (DP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
SECRET
HONDURAS: The two major political parties have
agreed on a proposal that would partially implement
President Lopez' plan for a "government of national
unity."
The governing Nationalist Party and the oppo-
sition Liberal Party have agreed to divide congres-
sional seats, cabinet posts, and judicial positions
equally, but have balked at supporting one nonpolit-
ical person for the presidency. Both parties have
named presidential candidates and expect to hold
elections in March as scheduled.
The Liberals have chosen as their standard
bearer Jorge Bueso Arias, an experienced politician
and former cabinet officer. In a last-minute deci-
sion before the adjournment of their nominating con-
vention, the Nationalists chose Ramon Ernesto Cruz,
a scholarly but aging and lackluster lawyer who
headed the Nationalist Party ticket in 1963 when
Lopez staged a coup.
The fact that the Nationalists have nominated
a candidate may indicate that Lopez is willing to
accept a modification of his original plan to sup-
port a unity candidate. If, however, this proves
unacceptable to Lopez and the military establish-
ment, a coup is a strong possibility.
8 Jan 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/08/,~r:, P79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/DP79T00975A017900120001-0
JORDAN: Fedayeen leaders have committed them-
selves to eliminating militant troublemakers from a
stronghold in Amman. Continuing armed provocations
by uncontrollable fedayeen elements in this eastern
sector--near the US ambassador's residence--resulted
in three dead and nine wounded on 6 January. Cease-
fire supervisor Ladgham, just before his final de-
parture from Jordan, had a stormy session with fed-
ayeen leaders about these maverick terrorists, who
may be non-Palestinian Arabs. If the fedayeen
leaders fail, the army will have another opportunity
to lean hard on the armed commandos remaining in the
capital, and may take even harsher measures in the
absence of Ladgham and most of his observers.
25X1
25X1
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003&2f? 1A-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/:ig_EQft79T00975A017900120001-0
EGYPT-US: The government will seek a three-
year moratorium on its overdue debt to the US unless
Washington is willing to supply $70 to $100 million
annually in new Commodity Credit Corporation loans.
These would not only offset interest and principal
repayments on Egypt's existing debt to the US over
the next eight years, but would provide Egypt with
at least $40 million annually to defray the cost of
wheat and other commodity imports. Such an arrange-
ment would contrast sharply with other Egyptian debt
agreements with Western countries, which generally
provide only enough new credit to cover repayments
on past debts.
HAITI: President Duvalier's son Jean-Claude
has been publicly identified as Duvalier's chosen
successor. On 6 January a public letter of fealty
to father and son signed by ranking military offi-
cers affirmed Duvalier's right to choose his suc-
cessor and to modify the constitution as he sees
fit. The armed forces pledged to crush any opposi-
tion to the President's decision. Duvalier's in-
tentions are becoming clearer, but unless the young
and feckless Jean-Claude reveals some unsuspected
strengths and consolidates reliable support, his
chances of fulfilling his father's ambitions are
dim.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/08/,~flECGNL-R&79T00975A017900120001-0
 Secri'oved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/08/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A017900120001-0