CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017600080001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 24, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/03/28: CIA-RDP79T00975A01760S&9r"
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DIRECTORATE OFF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
.0
24 November 1970
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No, 0281/70
24 November 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA: Government forces near Kompong Cham are
making little headway. (Page 1)
THAILAND: The insurgent movement in the northeast
is rebounding from earlier setbacks. (Page 3)
AUSTRALIA: The government coalition will continue
to control the Senate. (Page 5)
GUINEA: The government continues to reflect fear
of new armed attacks. (Page 6)
CHILE: Allende is bidding to solidify labor support.
(Page 7)
.COMMUNIST CHINA - USSR: Trade agreement (Page 8)
JAPAN: Reduced demand for coal (Page 8)
IRAQ: Maneuvering for power (Page 8)
ETHIOPIA: General killed (Page 9)
NIGERIA: Nationwide strike possible (Page 9)
SOUTH AFRICA - MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Economic aid
Page
LIBERIA: Expansion of port (Page 10)
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Current Situation
Battambango
Cambodia
o Principal city (10,000 or over)
Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
rwncr uyrivul aIaucu n.en r~earrr 7
Chilean\?
tTotuh9, Blocked by Enew pe
*Salgon
ETNAM
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CAMBODIA: Government forces attempting to re-
lieve Communist pressure near Kompong Cham city are
making little headway.
A 16-ship relief convoy bound for Kompong Cham
is still stalled on the Mekong River at Peam Chikang,
20 miles southwest of the city. Enemy attacks on
the convoy on 22 November caused heavy damage to
two ships, killing four Cambodians and wounding 52.
The convoy now is awaiting orders whether to
proceed north or return to Phnom Penh. If it turns
back, Kompong Cham city will continue to rely on
air drops because the threat of Communist harassing
fire is deterring cargo planes from landing at its
airfield. Elsewhere in the province, government re-
inforcements trying to move east along Route 7 and
reopen that road between Skoun and Kompong Cham have
not yet been able to do so because of the presence
of enemy troops near Prey Totung.
In the southwest along Route 4, Cambodian Army
soldiers reportedly are moving to retake government
positions in the Kirirom area that fell before co-
ordinated Communist attacks last weekend. I
The
oss of e irirom p.Lant wij_1 not serlous.Ly ect
Phnom Penh's power supply. The loss of the cart-
ridge factory--which apparently was largely destroyed
by retreating Cambodian troops--also is not a major
blow.
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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THAILAND: The insurgent movement in the north-
east is continuing to rebound from the setbacks suf-
fered during the 1967-68 period.
During the past rainy season, the insurgents
concentrated on improving their organization and
village support network in traditional operating
areas. There is evidence, however, that for the
first time in the northeast, the insurgents have
established a secure base, in the Dong Luang area
of Nakhon Phanom Province. This region has been
the most active insurgent area since the movement
in the northeast began in 1965.
In addition to supporting the training and
indoctrination of insurgents and the filling out
of quasimilitary village units, the base has fa-
cilitated an increase in external support for the
insurgency. Chinese AK-47 rifles reportedly have
been infiltrated into the region from Laos in in-
creasing numbers, and there are indications that
more Thai cadre who have been training in China
and North Vietnam are returning to the area. There
is also limited evidence suggesting an increase in
the links between insurgents and their sympathizers
in urban areas.
Despite their improved capabilities, the in-
surgents so far have avoided large-scale or highly
visible actions. Increased terrorism and harass-
ment of the government's fledgling village defense
forces are designed to gain the initiative without
prompting a major government counteroffensive. Such
tactics are effectively playing on both Bangkok's
belief that the insurgency in the northeast is well
in hand and the Thai Army's desire to turn over its
counterinsurgency role to police and civilian
agencies.
With the deteriorating situations in Cambodia
and Laos providing the pretext, the 2nd Army has
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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since mid-summer reduced its counterinsurgency force
commitment in the northeast by two-thirds, or to
less than 1,000 troops. Moreover, the army now is
under orders to engage in suppression operations
only in response to emergency situations.
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AUSTRALIA: Despite a loss in popular support,
the Liberal-Country coalition government will con-
tinue to control the Senate with the support of the
small Democratic Labor Party.
Final results of the 21 November elections for
30 Senate seats (half of the Senate membership) will
not be available for about two weeks, but indications
are that the government and Labor opposition lost
one seat each with the Democratic Labor Party and
independents profiting at their expense. By present
count, the new Senate line-up should be government
26, Labor 27, Democratic Labor five, and independ-
ents two.
The government registered the lowest share of
the popular vote (37.8 percent) in its 21 years in
power. The Labor Party, although winning more votes
than the government, still showed a decline since
the 1969 elections for the more important House of
Representatives. It took its principal losses in
the state of Victoria, where the electorate is con-
cerned over Communist and leftist strength in the
Labor Party apparatus. The Democratic Labor Party,
which is strongly anti-Communist, almost doubled its
share of the popular vote since 1969--from six to
11 percent.
Although these off-year Senate elections are
unimportant in themselves, they provide further
evidence that the 1972 elections for the House of
Representatives may well put a Labor government in
power. The elections also indicate internal party
dissatisfaction, which in the interval between now
and 1972 could force leadership changes in both the
Liberal and Labor arties. r- -1
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I GUINEA: The government continues to reflect
fear of new armed attacks following the seaborne
invasion of Conakry Sunday by a still unidentified
external force, most of which is presently unac-
counted for.
Again yesterday heavy firing occurred sporadi-
cally in various parts of the capital. These inci-
dents appear mainly attributable to jumpy Guinean
Army and militia patrols bent on flushing intruding
"mercenaries" from hiding. The government has not,
however, produced hard evidence that it has either
captured or killed any of the invaders and even the
few reported contacts with them are not confirmed.
The ships which brought the invaders--almost cer-
tainly from Portuguese Guinea--departed at dawn on
23 November.
Heavy contingents of well-armed Guinean regular
troops were on guard at all key points in and near
Conakry yesterday and roadblocks were much in evi-
dence throughout the city. The government continued
to broadcast claims of complete.victory, but was
also saying "the struggle continues" and warning
the populace to be vigilant against possible new
attacks.
Most African countries have declared their full
solidarity with the Toure government. Nigeria re-
portedly has offered "military assistance" and Tan-
zania has said it will make a large cash "donation."
Many other countries are organizing supporting dem-
onstrations or committees.
The UN fact-finding mission, authorized by the
Security Council early yesterday, has been selected
and reportedly plans to leave today for Guinea. The
resolution actually adopted by the Council did not
link the invading force to any country, although the
draft submitted by several African and Asian states
echoed Guinea's char e that Port I al is responsible.
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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CHILE: The Allende government is bidding to
solidify labor support.
Government press leaks indicate that its 1971
wage policy will further shift income away from
management, and a. new "escalator" feature will re-
distribute income among wage-earners by granting
substantially larger increases to lower-paid groups.
Prices will be rigidly controlled and companies will
be expected to offset the additional profit squeeze
by expanding output. The takeover of two partly
US-owned companies last weekend may serve as a warn-
ing that the administration is willing to force pri-
vate enterprise to cooperate.,
The new government also intends to increase
sharply public expenditures to stimulate the econ-
omy and reduce unemployment, at a time when reve-
nues will drop because of lower taxable private
profits and reduced charges for public services.
A large budget deficit, combined with the recent
expansion in money supply and the proposed liberal
wage increases, normally would produce marked price
increases. The government, however, has the means
to mask or suppress inflation for a considerable
time without resortin to Politically un-PoDular
measures. F7 I
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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COMMUNIST CHINA - USSR: The trade agreement
signed yesterday in Peking, the. first since 1967,
apparently is the product of low-level talks that
began last February. Although trade has continued
since 1967 without an official agreement, it has de-
clined,reaching an all-time low of $56 million last
year. Details of the agreement, including its dura-
tion, were not specified, but the wording of the
Chinese announcement suggests that some specific
trade items are still under discussion. Neverthe-
less, agreement on the pact may imply that trade
will increase somewhat over the 1969 level.
JAPAN: Because of the slowdown in the economic
growth rate, Japanese demand for imported minerals
and metals has fallen off. This in turn has con-
tributed to a temporary easing of world coal short-
ages, particularly in the US, which is a major sup-
plier. Steel production is running three million
tons below the target set for the year ending March
1971, resulting in an oversupply of coking coal in
Ja an.
span is
agreeable to delayed deliveries of US coking coal.
Demand for aluminum and copper also has declined,
leading to Japanese attempts to defer and, in some
cases, to cancel shipments under long-term contracts
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IRAQ: Maneuvering for power continues within
the Iraqi Baathist regime,
Saddam Husayn Tikriti, the
vice chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council
(RCC), the real locus of power in the country, is
said to be lining up new support and has plans for
a cabinet reshuffle. RCC Chairman Bakr apparently
is ill, and his death or removal would set off a
scramble for position within the council.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ETHIOPIA: The well-executed ambush on
21
No-
vember in which the commander of the army's
2nd
Di-
vision was killed. is the most. dramatic success
scored yet by the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF)
in its current terrorist campaign. Although ELF
guerrillas have staged random ambushes in the past,
this one was apparently aimed specifically at the
division commander, the highest ranking Ethiopian
killed to date in the Eritrean insurgency. The gen-
eral's death has already sparked heavy army retalia-
tion and is likely to bring renewed pressure on
Haile Selassie to establish total military rule
throughout Eritrea. The Emperor has not favored
such a step, although he recently permitted the arm
wider latitude in provincial affairs.
NIGERIA: Key labor groups are threatening a
nationwide walkout for l December unless the govern-
ment orders an interim wage increase recommended by
a study commission. Wage earners have been hit hard
by inflation since the end of the civil war and are
now also feeling the pinch of year-end taxes and
school levies. In addition, rank-and-file unionists
are increasingly distressed over the growing number
of violent incidents between civilians and restive,
underemployed soldiers. If the strike is called,
the workers may gain support from the general pub-
lic, which is already disaffected by the army's at-
tacks on civilians. This could present a serious
problem for General Gowon's military government.
(continued)
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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SOUTH AFRICA - MALAGASY REPUBLIC: Officials
have signed economic aid agreements worth almost
$6.5 million. Half of the money will come from pri-
vate South African sources and half from the South
African Government. The loans will be used to de-
velop a tourist complex in northeastern Madagascar.
Coming in the wake of Ivory Coast President Houphouet-
Boigny's call for talks between black- and white-ruled
states, these agreements are likely to strengthen
further Prime Minister Vorster's hand domestically
in pursuing his "outward-looking policy." Malagasy
officials, although effusive in their gratitude for
aid, nevertheless gave no indication that they are
ready to move beyond the economic agreements to es-
tablish diplomatic relations with the South Africans.
F777 I
LIBERIA: The expansion of the port at Harper
will further strain Liberia's already overburdened
budget. The port now handles only about five per-
cent of the country's general cargo traffic and no
large increase is foreseen unless substantial eco-
nomic development is undertaken in the area it
serves. Harper, on the other hand, is President
Tubman's birthplace, and development of the port
has been a pet project of his for a number of years.
Liberia acquired a $15-million loan from a group of
Belgian bankers for the expansion. The terms of
the loan have not been reported, but scheduled pay-
ments on the government's existing heavy debt amount
to about 20 percent of anticipated annual revenue
through 1974. 25X1
t;continued)
24 Nov 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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