CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A017300010002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 1, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51
1 October 1970
State Department review completed
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No. 0235/70
1 October 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
JORDAN: sBoth fedayeen and army troops have started
pulling out of Amman. (Page 2)
CAMBODIA: The Communists continue to harass the
government column on Route 6. (Page 5)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking's coverage of National Day
celebrations reveals frustration over domestic po-
litical problems. (Page 6)
INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: The US resolution on aerial
hijacking has an even chance of passing. (Page 9)
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GUATEMALA: A sharp rise in terrorism seems designed
to discredit the Arana government. (Page 11)
ARGENTINA: A nationwide strike has been called for
9 October. (Page 12)
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MALI: Rail line disrupted (Page 13)
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JORDAN: Both fedayeen and army troops have
begun pulling out of Amman, but fighting again
flared up in the north.
The army seems to have taken the lead in with-
drawing from. the capital.. The three-man follow-up
committee stated yesterday that army forces had
moved to temporary positions five kilometers out-
side the city--a perimeter which approximates the
location of the major intersections controlling
access to the city. The fedayeen were said to have
turned their weapons in to-.their-command headquarters.
According to press reports, however, cease-fire
observers have admitted that it will be difficult
to ensure total guerrilla withdrawal from the city;
although some truckloads of fedayeen have been seen
leaving Amman, other commandos claimed to have re-
ceived no orders to pull out.
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The US Embassy in Amman has found a. number of
indications that the fedayeen are consolidating
their areas of control rather than leaving. Com-
mandos in the Ashrafiyyah area have set up an ad-
ministrative organization, and are systematically
checking houses for relief need, distributing food
and water, and operating a bus service. Fedayeen
at checkpoints are challenging vehicles, even of
diplomatic personnel. The US ambassador believes
that, Amman is back to two separate sovereignties.
He speculates that the fedayeen, having for two
weeks absorbed the worst the Jordanian Army could
1 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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` SECRET N%ve
throw at them, have emerged little worse than be-
fore, and may well regard the Cairo agreement as a
kind of political victory.
The Israelis are taking a dim view of the pro-
vision of the agreement which would redeploy the
fedayeen in positions "suitable for commando action."
They read into this that the fedayeen will be given
some kind of extraterritoriality in certain areas of
Jordan, probably opposite the Beit Shean Valley,
which the Israeli Army regards as Israel's "most
sensitive area." Defense officials view such a de-
velopment as "extremely serious," and are probably
drawing up contingency plans.
Commando spokesmen yesterday morning accused
the Jordanian Army of shelling both Irbid and Ramtha.
According to press accounts, Jordanian tanks cut the
main supply route from Syria in the course of the
fighting. The three-man truce committee in Amman
hastily dispatched observers to investigate; feda-
yeen spokesmen last night confirmed that the fight-
ing ended after their arrival. Each side, predict-
ably, blames the other for the violation of the
cease-fire, which could have grown out of fedayeen
harassment of army positions or the enthusiasm of
a local army commander.
I some units
of tM-e Syrian Army are still stationed along the
Syrian-Jordanian frontier. The forces include two
tank brigades, an airborne battalion, and a para-
military unit specializing in sabotage operations..
Although these units are in a position to move into
Jordan in the event of fresh fighting, their dispo-
sition is probably part of a contingency plan and
does not necessarily imply a government decision
to re-intervene l
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Current Situation
I
Purs rf6f
f _ Enemy mnu r altac
KomPon, Tang$'Chhnanc8 Kou
Pr3lklram
tkou "E fry l
Kor3ppoc
Chcrji
En l --y-, lc`kl
Phnom Prey V
Penh ~# o eng
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Population over 125 per sq. mi.
Communist-controlled area
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Konipong3oni vKampof
(Sihanoukville)
_l1 ~d
o Principal city (10,000 or over)
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Thbeng "Ain
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CAMBODIA: [The Communists continue to harass
the government column on Route 6. A Cambodian Army
battalion midway between Skoun and Prakham was hit
by enemy mortar fire on 29 September, while a small
Communist unit clashed with elements of three other
battalions just southeast of Prakham. Few friendly
casualties resulted, and air strikes halted the en-
emy actions. Government troops have not yet moved
in force beyond Tang Kouk and continue to be pre-
occupied with "pacification" operations near that
village .3
ilitary authorities in Phnom Penh are worried
that the enemy will try to take advantage of the
current religious holiday by staging some sort of
attack near the capital. They claim that the Com-
munists reportedly are moving ammunition into an
area. just three miles southeast of the city on the
west bank of the Mekong. Although the enemy is
capable of launching terrorist attacks on Phnom
Penh, there are no reliable indications that any
large-scale action against the city is imminent
eng Meanchey,
is controlled by a 300-man
enemy garrison. Well-equipped enemy troops infil-
trating from Laos apparently use the town as a tem-
porary way station en route to.Kompong Thom and
Siem Reap. Over half of the townspeople have fled
Thbeng Meanchey since government troops abandoned
it in late July, but the Communists still have re-
cruited most of the town's remaining young males s
a local defense force
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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COMMUNIST CHINA. Peking's coverage of National
Day celebrations yesterday reveals continued frustra-
tions over persistent domestic political problems.
Echoing last year's themes, the sober joint
People's Daily - Red Flag - Liberation Army Journal
editorial called attentT&n to the slow progress in
reconstituting the shattered Chinese Communist Party
apparatus as a viable authority and the difficulties
in obtaining an effective performance from China's
local government organs--the revolutionary commit-
tees. The editorial gave more than routine treat-
ment to the need for competent local leadership, im-
plying that both high-ranking civilian and military
administrators are often out of step with Peking's
policies and are having difficulty reconciling "the
thousand and one things they have to do."
The extent of the regime's concern. over such
issues has also been evidenced in propaganda in re-
cent weeks complaining of political infighting in
revolutionary committees, strained civil-military
relationships, deficiencies in the army's political
performance, and resistance to the authority of
party committees that are painstakingly being estab-
lished at the local levels of administration.
The editorial offered no new blueprint for ac-
tion in resolving the host of difficulties it out-
lined beyond calling on local leaders to do "a bet-
ter job" in carrying out the periodic--and often
vaguely worded.--central instructions attributed to
Mao Tse-tung. Moreover, the editorial failed to is-
sue any broad policy guidelines and did not note
significant progress toward convening the long-
delayed National People's Congress. The congress
is expected among other things to serve as a forum
for presenting the long-anticipated fourth five-year
economic plan; the editorial implied that the re-
gime's long-term planning efforts are not yet firm.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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On foreign affairs, neither the editorial nor
a brief speech by Premier Chou En-lai at the Na-
tional Day reception broke any new ground. The
editorial laid particular stress on the sins of "US
imperialism" but also denounced US collusion with
"Social imperialism"--the Soviet Union.
1 Oct 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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INTERNATIONAL AVIATION: EThe revised US draft
resolution on aerial hijacking has a 50-50 chance
of passage at today's meeting of the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council in Mont-
real
[Fourteen of the 27 council members must vote
for adoption of the draft, which the US has revised
to accommodate West German concern. The revisions
slightly weaken prospects of international community
action to boycott air services of countries harbor-
ing hijackers engaged in international blackmail.
Ten council members appear certain to support the
US initiative in its new form, with the UK and Ar-
gentina regarded as key states in the quest for addi-
tional votes. France appears reluctant to oppose
the US draft openly and reportedly is seeking suffi-
cient abstentions to deny the US a majority of coun-
cil members
/,Complicating prospects for the US draft are
Canadian and Japanese alternatives that may be more
palatable to a number of countries. Ottawa has
offered a proposal that all bilateral air agreements
be amended to cover hijack problems--a lengthy and
imprecise process. Tokyo has not yet formally in-
troduced its resolution, which also lacks immediacy
_and indicates a preference for bilateral action.'
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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GUATEMALA: A sharp rise in terrorism seems
designed to discredit the Arana government and to
provoke a repressive response.
Terrorist incidents have occurred almost daily
during the past two weeks. Assassinations of po
lice officers and civilians, dozens of bombings,
kidnapings, and other scattered acts of sabotage
have raised questions about the President's inten-
tions to follow through on his promise of maintain-
ing law and order. Leftist student groups again
are charging government complicity in some of the
incidents, and university demonstrations protest-
ing the "repression" are being planned.
The resumption of terrorism comes in the wake
of dissension in the Cuban-oriented Rebel Armed
Forces (FAR) over the stand-down on violence or-
dered by the leadership. It remains unclear whether
the new round of terrorism is the work of splinter
groups or whether the dissidents have convinced
the FAR command to regain the initiative against
the government.
The government has expressed its determination
to fight the terrorists with legal methods and to
that end has worked at upgrading the security
forces. The minister of government believes, how-
ever, that in the face of rising terrorism, the
government soon will have to react strongly or lose
the support of civilian and military groups. He
expects the FAR to attempt a "spectacular" murder
of a prominent figure to increase the pressure on
the administration. Congress is expected to pass
a new emergency law expanding the President's
power in the security field.
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ARGENTINA: The General Labor Confederation
has called a nationwide strike for 9 October as part
of a campaign to force the government to change its
economic policies and give labor a voice in the
governing process.
The governing body of the confederation has
planned a 24?-hour "passive" strike for 9 October
followed by a ten-hour. "'active" strike with street
demonstrations on 22 October. The board subsequently
will review the situation and may call for a 36-hour
nationwide work stoppage in November.
It is highly unusual for the labor confedera-
tion to call two strikes in succession. This ex-
ceptionally strong action program probably was in-
fluenced by a recent directive to labor leaders
from former dictator Juan Peron urging them to in-
crease their opposition to the government.
Given existing labor unrest in the provinces
and the militancy of provincial labor leaders, the
planned strikes could lead to a serious confronta-
tion with the government., which might resort to re-
pressive measures. The administration is more
likely to offer some concessions, however, in an
effort to give labor leaders a chance to save face
and in order to buy time for itself. The announce-
ment by President Levingston that elections will be
held by 1975 may be a preliminary conciliatory move.
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MALI: Bamako's economic recovery program has
been dealt a blow by the interruption of rail
freight transportation on the vital line from Sene-
gal. Damage to a bridge by a train accident on 17
September has severed the country's sole rail link
to the sea for an estimated 30 days, choking off
the major artery for import of petroleum products
and important foodstuffs. Alternate routes involv-
ing costly truck transportation through the Ivory
Coast or to the distant railhead in Upper Volta
would increase the strain on Mali's alreath ntTCr-
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