CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015700020001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 28, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
28 February 1970
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No. 0051/70
28 February 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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Jordan: A cabinet reshuffle may be in-the works.
Page 3)
Laos: Communist forces are beginning to probe gov-
ernment positions south of the Plaine des Jarres.
(Page 5)
Italy: Negotiations to form a coalition government
are faltering. (Page 6)
Guatemala: All political groups are making contin-
gency plans for a crisis. (Page 7)
India: Violence likely (Page 9)
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Jordan: A cabinet reshuffle, possibly linked to
last weekend's agreement between King Husayn and the
fedayeen, may be in the works.
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A cabinet reshuffle was one of the fedayeen s
widely advertised demands during the pre-settlement
period last week. A Damascus press agency, not a
very reliable source, has since quoted Fatah leader
Yasir Arafat as saying that the King "agrees" with
the commando organizations regarding Talhuni's re-
placement by Abd al-Munim al-Rifai, the present for-
eign minister. According to the same source, Arafat
added that the fedayeen have also requested the re-
moval of the King's uncle, Sharif Nasir, as commander
of the Jordan Arab Army, but he did not indicate
whether the King had agreed to this as well.
Rifai is somewhat more conciliatory than Talhuni
on the fedayeen issue. His appointment, should it in
fact materialize, could represent another aspect of
the compromise hammered out between the King and the
fedayeen, but would tend to confirm that neither side
had won a clear-cut victory. Sharif Nasir's replace-
ment, on the other hand, would be widely interpreted
as a significant concession on the King's part.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Mg - P(,AINE Mond
DES
#Xlsng Khou*
JARRES ; T. -
Phi X#Opg
LAW cwt....
wc~
,- w
New Communist Activity South o
the Plaine
-h8 tion
*nist aration
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Laos: Communist forces are beginning to probe
government positions south of the Plaine des Jarres.
In the early morning of 27 February an enemy
force overran the lightly defended government posi-
tion at Phou Pha Say, a mountain outpost only ten
miles from Long Tieng. Vang Pao is now moving troops
in to retake the mountain top. Only a handful of
enemy troops were reported to still be on the summit.
Meanwhile in Vientiane, Prime Minister Souvanna
is putting pressure on his generals in south Laos to
provide reinforcements for the fighting in the north.
Although Souvanna was able to get the grudging sup-
port of the generals to supply some troops to bol-
ster defenses north of Vang Vieng, their limited
numbers and poor quality indicate they will have
little bearing. on the government's ability to with-
stand a Communist threat from this direction.
Souvanna also is making an effort to shift the
conflict back into the diplomatic arena. The prime
minister has called publicly for a reconvening of
the signatories to the 1962 Geneva Accords, although
he has to date not yet issued a formal request to
the cochairmen.
(Map )
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Italy: Negotiations to form a coalition govern-
ment are faltering over the issue of relations with
the Vatican.
Papal pressure, in the form of a diplomatic note
of protest and a public statement against pending
Italian divorce legislation, has created friction
among the political parties. The Socialists, Unitary
Socialists, and Republicans are calling on the care-
taker Christian Democratic government to reject the
note. Mariano Rumor, who is both caretaker prime
minister and prime minister-designate, has made no
move to do so.
A bill permitting divorce passed the lower house
last
year. The center-left parties had agreed that
its
passage over Christian Democratic opposition would
not
be considered a no confidence vote in the
govern-
ment
leadership. Prior to the Vatican action,
polit-
ical
spokesmen had not considered the question
of
upper house action on the bill an important hurdle
for the current negotiations. Now, however, the
divorce issue has become critical. Other difficult
problems include attitudes toward granting amnesty for
some of those accused of breaking the law during the
1969 strikes, economic policy, and the extension of
center-left cooperation to local governments.
President Saragat has the constitutional power
to call for early national elections, but it is un-
likely that he would exercise it except as a last
resort and after repeated failures to find a suc-
cessor government.
28 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Guatemala: All political groups are making
contingency plans for a crisis after the general
elections on Sunday.
Despite the presence of OAS observers and the
government's all-out efforts for a model election
day, the leftist and rightist opposition groups
continue to stress the theme of impending electoral
fraud. Both groups contain elements ready to go
into the streets to protest election irregularities.
Hopes for order continue to depend largely on
rightist presidential candidate Colonel Carlos
Arana's evaluation of the honesty of the outcome.
He has disclaimed any intention of fomenting dis-
turbances and says that he will deal with fraud
through legal channels.
The deaths of three persons--one a government
legislative candidate--in a gunfight between rightist
and government partisans in downtown Guatemala City
on 25 February are indicative of the tension that
permeates the electoral scene. A policeman was
killed and another policeman and two bystanders
were wounded in a terrorist attack in Guatemala
City yesterday.
28 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Violence is likely in Bombay
Local movement
demands awarding
of disputed area
to Maharashtra
GOA
Major area -
of dispute MYSORE
aangalor.e
CEYLON!
State boundary
MILES 400
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NOTE
India: Violence is likely in Bombay, the capi-
tal of Maharashtra state, on Monday. The Shiv Sena,
a local chauvinistic movement, is calling for a ban
on all vehicular traffic to press the central gov-
ernment into awarding Maharashtra a disputed area
now incorporated in the neighboring state of Mysore.
The police were unable to control serious disorders
that erupted during a Shiv Sena - initiated demon-
stration a year ago. The leaders of the ban have
said that their intentions are peaceful, but the
Shiv Sena can be expected to rally substantial sup-
port for its cause. The police commissioner plans
to deploy all his forces within the city to protect
hon-Maharashtrans--particularly natives of Mysore
who now live in the city. (Map)
28 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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