CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015600010001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 13, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
13 February 1970
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 SECRET
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No. 0038/70
13 February 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Laos: The Communists have launched a counteroffensive
in the Plaine des Jarres area. (Page 1)
Jordan: The fedayeen and government have reached a
cease-fire pending talks on a new agreement. (Page 2)
Egypt-Israel: The Egyptians have suffered civilian
casualties from an Israeli raid. (Page 3)
East Germany - West Germany: Stoph's proposal to be-
gin talks was probably a tactical ploy. (Page 4)
Romania - Warsaw Pact: A Pact command post exercise
reportedly will be held in Romania. (Page 5)
European Communities - Japan: The Commission is ex-
ploring a commercial agreement with Japan. (Page 6)
Nigeria: Reconciliation is off to a good start. (Page 7)
Turkey: Demirel's damaged leadership position will
probably be rebuilt. (Page 8)
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Bolivia: The government may be forced to institute a
severe austerity program or devalue. (Page 12)
USSR: Intelsat equipment (Page 13)
USSR-Australia: Meat purchase (Page 13)
Czechoslovakia: Reform under fire (Page 14)
Italy: New government sought (Page 14)
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Plaine des Jarres Under Communist Attack
Muong
Soui
ala
ahou
houn
10 20Miles
l ~
10 20 Kilometers
Meng Khouang Kha g
JAR*S Y
Under heavy
attack
Na
Khan
AS, Government-held location
? Communist-held location
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I Laos: The Communists have launched a major
counteroffensive against government forces in the
Plaine des Jarres.
In an important first step toward moving back
into the Plaine, a large number of Communist troops
supported by tanks and armored cars began pushing
into the Nong Pet area on 11 February. The enemy
thrust has been directed against the several groups
of government guerrillas who have been blocking
Route 7, the northeastern gateway to the Plaine,
since last August. Preliminary reports indicate
that the government has lost most of the strategic
hilltops overlooking Nong Pet, and it apparently
will be only a short time before the entire area
is in enemy hands.
On the Plaine, government forces were able to
thwart a North Vietnamese attack against General
Vang Pao's forward headquarters at Xieng Khouang
airfield. According to initial accounts, the enemy
lost over 70 killed while government casualties were
light. The airfield was the scene of a costly enemy
commando raid in mid-December.
Although General Vang Pao had hoped to make the
Communist capture of the Plaine as difficult and ex-
pensive as possible, rapid loss of key terrain fea-
tures overlooking the Plaine could upset these plans.
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C Jordan: Arab fedayeen and King Husayn agreed
late yesterday to a cease-fire pending the working
out of a new, apparently less restrictive agreement
on fedayeen activities.
The announcement from Amman followed a series
of meetings yesterday and the day before between the
King and fedayeen leaders, and after fedayeen defi-
ance of the King's new restrictions and clashes be-
tween fedayeen and police in Amman. The two sides
agreed to cease "all provocative acts" and to sus-
pend "all measures and steps causing tension." The
latter provision apparently means a suspension of
the King's 11-point restriction order of 10 February.
The two sides are to begin discussions immediately
on a new arrangement.
The King appears at this point to have backed
down rather quickly and to have lost another battle
with the fedayeen. He had the military muscle to
follow through on a showdown, but it would. have been
bloody. Husayn was also under strong pressure re-
sulting from domestic and foreign support of the
fedayeen.
fedayeen forces,
0 owing the announcement o e King's restrictions
on 10 February, withdrew from the front lines into
Amman and took physical control of parts of the city.
Some Jordanian Army reinforcements were moved into
the capital, but they never really got into the fray
and generally sat on the sidelines awaiting orders
from Husayn. No figures on government casualties
have been released. Apparently about a dozen fed-
ayeen were killed in the two days.
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Egypt-Israel: The Egyptians have suffered a
large number of civilian casualties, apparently for
the first time, as a result of an Israeli air raid.
Israeli aircraft yesterday struck a steel rein-
forcing rod factory some ten miles north of Cairo.
Egypt claimed some 70 persons were killed and almost
100 wounded in the attack. The Israeli radio sub-
sequently announced that there had been no change in
Tel Aviv's policy of hitting only military targets,
and that if a civilian target had been struck it was
the result of a mistake."
It is not clear how much pressure will be exerted
on Nasir to retaliate for the Israeli raid. He had
previously indicated that if Egypt suffered large
civilian casualties in one of the raids, he would
feel compelled to strike back at Israeli civilian
targets no matter what the price. Nasir may decide,
however, that he is too weak at present to risk re-
taliation. In any event, he will exploit the propa-
ganda windfall provided by this incident, and almost
certainly hopes that the bad publicit will cause
Israel to cease its raids near Cairo.
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Last Germany - West German : East German Premier
Stoph's proposal to Chancel or Brandt to begin talks
next week probably was more a tactical ploy than a
serious offer to negotiate.
in a letter delivered in Bonn yesterday, Stoph
proposed that he and Brandt meet on 19 or 26 February
to discuss an "arrangement by treaty" establishing
normal relations between the two Germanies.
Although he did not say so specifically, Stoph
implied that the draft treaty sent to Bonn last De-
cember by party leader Ulbricht would serve as the
basis for discussions. Much of his letter is devoted
to rehashing the treaty's main points, and Stopn noted
"with regret" that Bonn has yet to reply to Ulbricht's
proposal.
u e East German move was somewhat surprising,
especially because Uloricht had indicated last month
that Pankow would not rush to begin talks. It is
possible that the East Germans have been influenced
by the course of West German negotiations with the
Poles and Soviets. Last fall, the Soviet response to
the Allied overture on Berlin was instrumental in
leading the East Germans to propose technical talks
with Bonn.
he East Germans, nevertheless, clearly still
differ with their allies concerning the desirability
of relations with West Germany, and they may hope
that Bonn will reject their offer. Pankow could then
cite the West German refusal as evidence that Bonn
cannot be trusted.
Bonn no doubt realizes that a simple rejection
of Stoph's offer would play into East German hands.
Therefore, while perhaps rejecting Pankow's timetable,
the West Germans are expected to respond favorably to
the East German offer. Chancellor Brandt clearly
stated his willingness to engage in "government-
level" negotiations in his state of the nation ad-
dress last month. Brandt, although aware that pros-
pects for a successful outcome are not good, is likely
to conclude that an attempt to negotiate should be
made.
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Romania - Warsaw Pact: A Warsaw Pact command
post exercise reportedly will be held in Romania
this year.
DI,425X1 I I said
that he learned o tne exercise rom r-IM chief of
the Romanian Defense i~iinistry's foreign liaison
office. The Romanian officer said the exercise
would involve about 300-500 "players"--presumably
staff personnel--but no troops or air units from
other Warsaw Pact countries. he would not say in
what month the exercise would be held, nor did he
indicate which countries would participate. He
DIA25X1told both the US Iattaches that there would
be no Pact maneuvers wit troops" in Romania in
1970.
14o Warsaw Pa
ct exercise has been held i
n Romania
since 1962. Presi
dent Ceausescu has denounc
ed the
holding of military maneuvers "on the territ
ory or
near the frontiers
of other states," and Buc
harest
has been especial
ly reluctant to allow Pact
maneu-
vers in Romania s
ince the invasion of Czecho
slovakia
in 1968. The Rom
anians obviously fear that
Pact
troops might not leave once the maneuvers end. An
exercise of the type described by the Romanian of-
ficer would enable Romania to fulfill at least part
of its obligation to the Pact without jeopardizing
its sovereignty.
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European Communities - Japan: The EC Commis-
sion is exploring the outlook for an EC-Japan com-
mercial agreement.
EC Commissioner Deniau will visit Japan next
week. His discussions with Japan will be a major
test of the Commission's authority as negotiator
of trade agreements for the Communities. According
to the Treaty of Rome, the Commission should have
fully assumed that role from the member states by
the end of this year. The common commercial policy
agreed to last year implements the treaty require-
ments with the exception of negotiations with some
East European countries, which will not be included
until 1972.
A primary issue will be how far the EC is will-
ing to go in reducing existing discriminatory meas-
ures against Japanese exports in return for the re-
moval of Japanese non-tariff barriers to trade.
Such liberalization would facilitate expansion of
trade between Japan and the EC and would help to
set the stage for Japan to lower barriers to its
trade with the US.
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Nigeria: The federal government '.a reconcilia-
tion policy is off to a good start, butthe.restora-
tian of a normal political and economic situation
in _'the` secessionist area will take time.
The military occupation of the former Eastern
Region has gone well so far, and ear roo dis-
cipline problems have been overcome
the Easterners
have genera -y been reassure by he conduct of fed-
eral troops and have been fraternizing freely with
them.
The Ibos' willingness to forget the past so
quickly probably results in part from the govern-
ment's massive relief program. Malnutrition and
suffering have been severe, however. Relief opera-
-tions are `improving, but'a month after the end of
the war, food distribution is stillnot'weli organ-
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A major problem in the enclave is that there
is still virtually no Nigerian currency in the hands
of the people. Federal officials arework--ing out
the details of a currency exchange, which is report-
edly to get under way tomorrow.
Another problem for General Gowon is the belief
among many minority tribesmen in eastern Nigeria,
and among some elements within the federal government
as well, that too much is being done for the Ibos.
Probably in part as a concession to these elements,
Lagos has established a military tribunal to screen
secessionist army officers who are seeking reinstate-
ment in the Nigerian Army. The tribunal presumably
will decide which officers were "misguided" into
secession and which were the "misguiders," but there
are no indications that a large-scale purge is in
the offing. F7 I 25X1
13 Feb 70 '_' Central' intelligence Bulletin
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Turkey: Prime Minister Demirel's leadership
position has been damaged by the Assembly's rejec-
tion of the budget, but political observers in
Ankara believe that he will be able to recover most
of the lost ground.
Demirel is still in firm control of the Justice
Party, although he has lost, at least temporarily,
the votes of the 41 members of the party's conserv-
ative wing. He needs only 13 votes, however, to
regain a bare majority in the lower house. His ma-
jority in the Senate has not been affected by the
present controversy. Demirel has several possible
courses of action available, including forming a
coalition with one of the smaller parties and some
of the independents.
As parliament resumes today, the only matter
of immediate urgency is the need to pass a budget,
either interim or final. It must be approved by
28 February, the end of the Turkish fiscal year.
Meanwhile, political bargaining probably will de-
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Bolivia: The Ovando government may either have
to insti~'tute a severe austerity program or devalue
its currency.
These politically unpalatable choices loom in
the wake of a forecast by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) that Bolivian reserves may drop as much
as $12 million in 1970. Although reserves increased
by $6 million in late 1969, a loss is expected be-
cause of the overvaluation of the currency and Bo-
livia's takeover of the Gulf oil operation. The IMF
has been conferring on Bolivia's financial woes
since before the coup that brought Ovando to power
last September.
Some of Ovando's ministers favor devaluation
and believe that they can persuade the military to
go along. An austerity program., which might prove
less damaging for the government's prestige, would
be fought by a variety of sectors.
Bolivia will probably ask for US financial
support, especially for the military, if it accepts
the IMF's devaluation plan. F77 I
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USSR: Since late 1969 Soviet trade officials
have several times expressed interest in obtaining
equipment used in Intelsat ground stations. The So-
viets announced plans in early 1969 for their own
stationary-orbit communications satellite, called
Statsionar. Since Statsionar would operate on many
of the same frequencies as Intelsat, the Soviets may
want to use Intelsat equipment in their own program.
They may also want to copy the Intelsat equipment or
to test its compatibility with their own ground sta-
tions. Statsionar is supposed to be in operation
by December 1970, but problems with the failure-prone
SL-12 launch system may cause delays.
USSR-Australia: The Soviet Union recently con-
tracted to buy some 30,000 tons of beef and mutton
from Australia, for, delivery by 30 June, to help off-
set Moscow's shortfall in domestic. meat production.
This deal alone, valued at nearly $30 million, 4
will
boost Australia's total meat exports ten erce t over
those of 1969.
additional meat sales may be negotiated with they
Communist countries, including Czechoslovakia, Ro-
mania, and Hungary. Canberra is encouraging such ex-
ports as a means of reducing its heavy dependence on
the US market, where its meat exports are limited by
quota. The Soviet purchase is probably a one-time
sale, however.
(continued)
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Czechoslovakia: Another reform from Dubcek's
liberal Action Program--the granting of rights to
group interest associations--is under fire. Early
in 1968 organizations such as those for industry and
trade and communal enterprises were authorized to
protect the rights of their individual members even
in the face of Communist Party opposition. They also
were to operate independently of the party's control
machinery. Recently, however, the Czech party bureau
issued a directive that presages abolition by the end
of March of those interest groups accused of failing
to support the party. The withdrawal of this reform
probably will generate minimal resistance from the
organizations themselves, but it will add to popular
disaffection and cast further doubt on Husak's prom-
ise to introduce genuine reforms in the future.
L
C Italy: President Saragat requested yesterday
that Mariano Rumor attempt formation of a new Italian
government. Negotiations looking toward a new cen-
ter-left coalition including the Christian Democrats,
the Socialists, the right-wing Unitary Socialists,
and the Republicans are expected to last several
weeks. The Socialist Party must still resolve some
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