CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A015500040001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 2, 1970
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5o
2 February 1970
STATE review(s) completed.
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No. 0028/70
2 February 1970
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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Philippines: Student demonstrations could force Mar-
cos to abandon efforts to extend his term in office.
(Page 3)
South Vietnam: An upswing in Communist harassing
attacks took place over the weekend. (Page 4)
El Salvador -- Honduras: The armed clashes last week
have increased tensions along the border. (Page 5)
South Korea: The opposition is regrouping following
its failure to prevent Pak from seeking a third term.
(Page 6)
Korea: Quibbling over procedures for the return of
the people aboard a hijacked South Korean airliner
continues. (Page 7)
European Communities s Spain: Trade agreement (Page 8)
East Germany - West Germany: Postal and telecommuni-
cations agreement, (Page 8)
Bolivia: Export earnings (Page 9)
Communist China - USSR: Trade talks (Page 9)
Zambia: Copper industry (Page 10)
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Philippines: The student demonstrations could
generate enough resistance to President Marcos' po-
litical ambitions to force him to abandon efforts to
perpetuate himself in office.
The protests in Manila last week were sparked
by Marcos' anticipated bid for a third term. It has
generally been assumed that he will try to pack next
year's constitutional convention in order to guide
it toward abolishing a constitutional provision lim-
iting the president to two terms in office.
Marcos was obviously stung by the degree'to
which the demonstrations were directed against him
personally. He has attempted to obscure the fact
that his political ambition was the target of the
students by dismissing the violence outside the pres-
idential palace as part of a Communist plot to take
over the government. The students' opposition is
shared by some powerful families in the oligarchy
who see Marcos' ambitions as a threat to their own
political fortunes and are themselves maneuvering
to block him.
Ceremonies being planned in honor of the five
students killed could erupt into further disturb-
ances. Marcos probably will try for the time being
to blur the issue of student protests by exaggerating
the Communist involvement. He may, however, eventu-
ally be forced to still the outcry with firm public
assurances that he will not try to prolong his ten-
ure of office and with steps toward a meaningful re-
form program.
2 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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South Vietnam: An upswing in Communist harass-
ing attacks took place over the weekend.
Numerous, but generally not very intense, shell-
ings were directed at allied military targets, mostly
in the northern half of the country. The bombard-
ments were coupled with occasional guerrilla and sap-
per attacks on bridges, roads, and remote. outposts,
as well as against US and South Vietnamese military
positions. Aside from a brief mortaring of My Tho
and an apparent renewed emphasis on terrorism in
Saigon, no key urban centers have been struck. Low
casualty and damage reports reflect the relative in-
effectiveness of this latest spurt of enemy action,
which most likely was designed as a covering action
to 4llow many Communist first-line combat units more
time to prepare themselves for battle.
Similar enemy activity is likely to erupt in
other sectors of South Vietnam before 5 February,
the start of the Communists' unilateral, four-
cease-fire.
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intensified hostilities will also take pl
ace fol-
lowing the lunar New Year holiday period.
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2 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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El Salvador - Honduras: The armed clashes last
week have increased tensions along the border.
The latest incident occurred on Saturday when
a prolonged firefight took place. Active patrolling
along an undefined border rather than aggressive in-
tentions appears to have caused the trouble.
Both governments have reacted calmly, and their
bilateral, talks that began last Monday in Costa Rica
have not been broken off. The talks went into re-
cess on Friday, however, and are not scheduled to
resume until 23 February. Neither government is
blowing the incidents out of proportion, but further
clashes could generate press and ublic pressure
both sides for a tougher stance. T I 25X1
2 Feb 70 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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South Korea: Opposition elements are regroup-
ing following their failure to prevent President Pak
from seeking a third term next year.
Twenty independent politicians recently joined
the New Democratic Party, the country's only signifi-
cant opposition party. The leader of the group, Yi
Chol-sung, is dynamic, ambitious, and a prospective
candidate to run against Pak.
In a rare display of unity, the New Democrats
at their annual convention last week rallied behind
party vice chairman and veteran politician Yu Chin-
san to fill the leadership vacuum created by former
chairman Yu Chin-o's serious illness. Having re-
solved their leadership problem, the New Democrats
may now be prepared to return to the National Assem-
bly. They walked out last summer in protest over
the government's high-handed tactics in ramming the
third term proposal through the Assembly.
The next hurdle facing the party is its nomi-
nating convention in June to select a presidential
candidate. Because Pak is generally conceded to be
unbeatable in 1971, the convention may be able to
settle on a candidate with a minimum of conflict.
But even if the New Democrats are able to maintain
their unity until the election, their only possible
chance to improve their position will be in the Na-
tional Assembly where they hold 42 seats compared
with the regime's 112. 1 -1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Korea: Pyongyang and Seoul continue to quibble
over procedures for the return of the people aboard
a South Korean airliner hijacked to the North last
December.
Although the North Koreans insist that negoti-
ations take place between private organizations to
arrange a release, they now seem desirous of getting
rid of those passengers who want to return to South
Korea.
Seoul, anxious to avoid even tacit recognition
of the regime in the North, has been demanding the
unconditional return of the plane as well as all
passengers and crew. This uncompromising position
has now been modified. Seoul has informed the US
Embassy that it will accept whatever passengers
Pyongyang is willing to return. and has authorized
a representative of the South Korean Red Cross to
sign a receipt but not to negotiate for the release.
Seoul's new position will be presented to the
North Koreans by the UN Command at the next secre-
taries' meeting of the Military Armistice Commission,
scheduled for today. A similar arrangement brought
the release of the American crew and most of the
passengers of a South Korean airliner hijacked to
North Korea in 1958.
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European Communities - Spain: Agreement was
reached last week on all but a few minor details of
a preferential trade arrangement between the European
Communities (EC) and Spain. It is similar to EC
preferential trade agreements that are coming under
increasing criticism from other contracting parties
to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
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East Germany - West Germany: The two sides
have reached an impasse over West Berlin's inclusion
in a postal and telecommunications agreement. Dur-
ing the third round of talks Bonn maintained that
the agreement should include provisions concerning
East German - West Berlin postal matters because the
Federal Republic handles these affairs for the city.
The East German negotiators rejected this argument
and again emphasized Pankow's claim that West Berlin
is an independent political entity. Another round
of talks will probably be held.
(continued.)
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Bolivia: Rising tin prices and the govern-
ment's discouragement of imports have at least tem-
porarily offset the loss of export earnings resulting
from the nationalization of the Bolivian Gulf Oil
Company. Foreign exchange reserves, which had fallen
to $27 million in November, rose to $33 million by
the end of the year, about the level they were when
General Ovando came to power last fall. A promising
arrangement with the Spanish state oil company to
operate former Gulf properties and to complete the
gas pipeline to Argentina has been jeopardized, how-
ever, by press reports of that company's involvement
with Gulf. Long-term economic improvement remains
dependent upon a solution of oil and gas marketing
problems.
Communist China - USSR: Low-level talks on a
1970 trade agreement beg in Peking last month,
according to a press report. These talks probably
are a resumption of similar negotiations held in
Moscow during the last half of 1969 that failed to
produce an agreement. Although the two countries
have not concluded a trade pact since 1967, the ex-
change of Soviet industrial goods for Chinese agri-
cultural and consumer goods has continued. The
signing of a new trade agreement probably would not
significantly increase trade, which in 1969 remained
below the $100-million level.
(continued)
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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Zambia: The recent reorganization of industrial
ownership is primarily a bureaucratic change to man-
age the recently acquired copper companies. On 1
April 1970 the Industrial Development Corporation
(INDECO), the agency for managing government partic-
ipation in the economy, will become a subsidiary of
a new Mining and Industrial Development Corporation,
which will be chaired by President Kaunda. A second
subsidiary, the Mining Development Corporation, will
be created to manage the government's newly acquired
51-percent share of the nation's copper industry.
Effective management of both subsidiaries will re-
main under the present chairman and managing director
of INDECO.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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