CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014700060001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 9, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51.
9 October 1969
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No. 0242/69
9 October 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: The enemy may launch attacks northwest
of Saigon. (Page 1)
Japan: Public opinion is gradually accepting a more
active self-defense role. (Page 2)
Norway: The government hopes to frustrate efforts to
force recognition of Hanoi. (Page 3)
European Communities: The Commission achieved a pro-
cedural victory in its compromise with Bonn. (Page 4)
USSR: The Soviets have launched another weather
satellite. (Page 5)
USSR-Syria: The USSR is helping Syria develop its
petroleum industry. (Page 6)
Tunisia: A former defense minister is bidding for
political power. (Page 7)
Guatemala: The largest rural guerrilla action in two
years occurred this week. (Page 9)
Panama: The government plans three major policy pro-
nouncements on Saturday. (Page 10)
Chile - Eastern Europe: Copper exploitation (Page 11)
Pakistan: New constitution (Page 11)
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t
AVERAGE STRENGTH
NORTH OF ENEMY UNITS
VIETNAM Battalion: VC 200- 400
NVA 300- 500
Demilitarized Zone
Regiment: VC 1,0001,500
NVA 1,200-2,000
Division: VC 5,0007,000
NVA 5,000-3,000
LAOS
THAILAND
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C South Vietnam: Firefights between South Viet-
namese troops and Communist forces continued to
flare up in the Mekong Delta on 7-8 October, amid
indications the enemy may soon launch fresh attacks
northwest of Saigon.
I fthe Communists.. plan to close the
campaign with several assaults on allied outposts
in Tay Ninh Province, after which the results will
be analyzed with an eye to beginning a winter-spring
campaign.
There are more reports of North Vietnamese
troops being absorbed into Viet Cong local force
units, reportedly in part to create an appearance
of a North Vietnamese withdrawal from the battle-
field.
A recent defector has confirmed earlier in-
formation that a North Vietnamese regiment in Phu
Yen Province was disbanded last summer and its sub-
ordinate units reassigned to provincial forces.
The defector claimed this was done to give the
impression of a North Vietnamese disengagement from
South Vietnam. Other reports suggest this same
process may have occurred in some parts of the coun-
try but hard evidence of this sort is lacking.
Earlier reports claimed the North Vietnamese were
joining Viet Cong units to bolster their sagging
(Map) J.
9 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Japan: L ablic opinion is gradually accepting
a more active self-defense role and less reliance
A recent poll by a leading Japanese newspaper
show-h"at significant portions of the Japanese
public now favor armed neutrality or at least a
greater role for Japan within its defense alliance
with the US. The preference for more self-reliance
in the future is probably related to a feeling by
nearly half of those polled that the US would not
come to Japan's aid in an emergency. This attitude
and the replies to questions about US bases suggest
that the Japanese Government has little room for
maneuver_j its negotiations with the US on Okinawan
No ._surpris:ingly, almost half of those polled
favored the same regulations for US bases in Okinawa
after reversion that now apply to US bases on the
Japanese mainland. Thirty-seven percent want the
bases removed before reversion. On the question of
future use of Okinawa bases for combat operations,
56 percent of those polled on the mainland and 60
percent of those on Okinawa said that the Japanese
Government sbould veto such use through prior con-
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Norway: The government hopes that it will be
able to frustrate any effort by radical members of
the opposition to force recognition of North Viet-
nam, but its success is not assured.
If Norway were to recognize Hanoi, it would be
the first NATO member to do so. Recognition was
promised as part of the program of the opposition
Labor Party, which came close to unseating the
ruling center-right coalition in the elections early
last month. The party's leadership has apparently
decided not to raise the issue, but its position
could be challenged by party radicals.
The radicals may try to force the issue when
the new parliament's general foreign policy debate
is held in late November or early December. A de-
bate on recognition alone could, however, be pre-
cipitated by some extraneous development, such as
the recent declaration by the Swedish Social Demo-
crats of support for substantial aid to North Viet-
nam.
Key Norwegian officials are alert to the prob-
lem and aware of the potential consequences for US-
Norwegian relations. Yet the government is also
aware that parliamentary discussion of the issue
might reveal that some radical members of the coali-
tion Liberal Party are sympathetic to recognition.
Rather than risk being forced out of office by the
defection of as few as two deputies on this issue,
the coalition may prefer to take action leading to-
ward relations with Hanoi.
The government's first line of defense is to
keep the issue from ever coming up in parliament,
arguing that Norway already has useful contacts with
Hanoi through its embassy in Peking. At the same
time, the government has attempted to placate the
opposition with such gestures as inviting a touring
North Vietnamese delegation of technical experts to
entral Intelligence Bulk-t-in
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European Communities: fThe Commission has
achieved at least a procedur victory in the com-
promise reached with Bonn to protect German farmers
from the impact of the floating mark.
The EC Court of Justice in special session on
Sunday refused Germany's request to set aside the
Commission's decision opposing the unilateral German
supplementary levies. At the Council of Ministers
meeting on Monday, the Commissioi sked the council
to recommend a temporary solution.
A compromise proposal put forward by the French
was accepted by the Commission and Germany. The Com-
mission then revised its previous decision in light
of the council's recommendation and agreed to permit
limited German supplementary levies. The levies
would be less than those proposed by Germany and
valid only until the mark is pegged. They would
also be on a restricted number of products to be
determined by the Commission. The Germans indicated
that a de jure revaluation would be the highest_i-
ority item once a new government had been formed.
The problem of what Bonn will be allowed to do
for Ge-rman farmers, however, is far from resolved.
There has been no agreement on what measures will
be taken once the value of the mark is pegged, when
the Commission maintains that the supplementary
levies will expire. The Germans apparently feel en-
titled to treatment equal to that granted the French
following devaluation of the franc. This would in-
volve supplementary levies for a period of up to
two years and lead to a f ther deterioration of the
Common
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR: The Soviets launched a weather satellite
from Plesetsk on 5 October either to supplement or
replace the only other active Soviet weather satel-
lite in orbit.
The older satellite has been functioning since
March 1969 and may be approaching the end of its
active life. Both have been designated by the So-
viets as "Meteor" satellites--the first of which re-
portedly transmitted real-time television pictures
of the earth's cloud cover only while over the So-
viet Union. Recent statements by a Soviet scientist,
however, suggest that future "Meteor" satellites will
transmit continuously while orbiting the earth.
The Soviets may intend to use frequencies sim-
ilar to those of US weather satellites. A ground
receiver named "Meteorit," built by the Soviets and
given to the Cubans, is used to pick up US weather
satellite real-time television transmissions. The
same "Meteorit" device might receive future "Meteor"
transmissions.
If the Soviets begin continuous television
transmissions from orbit using the same frequencies
as US weather satellites, any nation with a suitable
ground receiver could pick up transmissions from
both the US and the Soviet satellites.
9 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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USSR-Syria: The USSR continues to help Syria
develop its petroleum industry.
Experts from the Soviet oil research institute
arrived in Syria last week to spend two months pre-
paring a comprehensive plan for oil production.
Following his visit to Moscow last August, the Syr-
ian minister of oils and electric power announced
that the USSR would help in establishing a research
laboratory for Syria's proposed oil institute.
The Soviets have been involved in the explora-
tion of oil resources in northeast Syria for more
than ten years. Largely through their assistance,
Syria was able to begin commercial production of oil
in April 1968. Last year's goal of three million
tons was not met, but production did reach about one
million tons. The output has been increasing stead-
ily, but the'1969 production target of five million
tons probably is also unrealistic.
With domestic consumption of less than two
million tons annually, Syria is becoming an oil
exporting nation. Despite the fact that its high-
sulphur crude is not readily marketable, Syria re-
portedly has concluded deals with France, Italy,
r- I
Austria, East Germany, and Bulgaria.
9 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Tunisia: Former defense minister Ahmed Mestiri
has initiated an unprecedented bid to gain political
power outside the country's one-party political sys-
tem.
Mestiri, who resigned early in 1968 in protest
over prevailing economic policies, called last Sat-
urday for the postponement of the presidential and
parliamentary elections scheduled for 2 November.
As justification for the delay, he cited President
Bourguiba's prolonged ill health and a number of
problems requiring urgent solutions. Mestiri warned
that if the elections were not delayed, he would be
"obliged" to offer his own candidacy, but his some-
what ambiguous statement suggests that he would run
for the national assembly rather than for the presi-
dency.
Mestiri's proposal to postpone the elections is
probably only a tactic to introduce his bid for fu-
ture power. Over the short term, he may hope to use
a seat in the assembly as a forum for broadening his
support. When the question of presidential succes-
sion is eventually posed, he could then be in a posi-
tion to challenge Bourguiba's heir apparent, Bahi
Ladgham, whose power is based on his positions as
secretary of state for the presidency and secretary
general of the ruling party.
It is premature to evaluate Mestiri's prospects.
He is well regarded for his honesty and courage by
both the business community and the military. He
might also draw some support from organized labor.
9 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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GUATEMALA: Guerrillas Stage Largest Rural Action in Two Years
Sites of guerrilla attacks
4-5 Oct
nter-Ameriean
Highway
uehuetenango
f
Quezaltenango
Retalhuleu+F`'- \ N
Champerico 9' pueble Nuevo
Tiquisate
*/ .Jalapa
Guatemala City
Escuintla 4Cw~ap
Jutiapa
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Guatemala: The largest rural guerrilla action
in at least two years occurred this week.
The attacks against three oil drilling camps
near the Mexican border took place on 4 and 5 October
in an unpopulated area with no history of guerrilla
activity. A well disciplined group of about 40 men
systematically stripped the camps of supplies and
equipment and painted Rebel Armed Forces (FAR) slogans
on the walls. The workers were subjected to an anti-US
harangue and were invited to join the insurgency
movement.
The Guatemalan defense minister says he is di-
recting a 100-man parachute drop into the main camp
today. The mobility of the guerrillas and the iso-
lation of the oil company sites will probably give
the operation little chance of success. It is pos-
sible that the guerrillas intended to draw Guatemalan
troops away from their regular posts.
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the Zomunist organization soon intends to of ac prominent Guatemalan political figure.
one attack might be the assassination
or Kidnaping of one of the presidential car dates
to gain national and international publicity
The various Communist guerrilla-terrorist bands
have been concentrating for over a year on organizing,
training, and arming themselves. The professionalism
of the unusual raids in Alta Verapaz suggests this
strategy has been effective. The insurgent groups
are likely to inaugurate a siege of terror soon,
probably to coincide with the official opening of-
the camp in Nnygrber for the elections next
March. Map)
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Panama: &le provisional junta government is
planning to make three major policy pronouncements
on Saturday, the first anniversary of the military
coup
th e
government wii-L announce the immediate restoration
of constitutional guarantees, including freedom of
the press. All political prisoners except suspected
guerrillas will be released, and election of a con-
stitutional assembly will be scheduled for October
1970. The assembly will be charged with revising
the constitution and ratifying a new canal treaty
with the US.
These initiatives apparently are designed to
remohe major popular grievances against the gov-
ernment, but it seems clear that the present leaders
have no intention of relinquishing power in the near
future. All political parties have been dissolved,
and the government is organizing a broadly based
political organization ' atterned on the Mexican
example to replace thm
This new organization, the New Panama Movement,
will'F?e formally unveiled tomorrow. Its platform
reportedly will proclaim an end to corrupt govern-
ment by rich business interests and will promise
reforms designed to benefit urban laborers and pea-
sants. The key fo gn policy goal will be revision
of the canal treaty.
I I
mill t opposition elements are planning to ear-
rass the government by disrupting the 11 October
celebrations. The arrest of potential troublemakers
may have dampened chances of major demonstrations,
li_t some violent incidents cannot be ruled ou
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Chile - Eastern Europe: Chile and Romania
have signed an agreement to form a joint company for
exploration and exploitation of copper and other
mineral deposits. This agreement represents the
third joint venture Chile has concluded with an East
European country involving the exploitation of Chil-
ean copper. Earlier this year, the Chilean Govern-
ment approved a joint Hungarian-Chilean company to
manufacture copper cable in Chile. In return for
50 percent ownership in the company, Hungary will
provide mining machinery, technical assistance, and
an assured market for the company's output in Hungary
and other East European countries. A joint Chilean-
Yugoslav company also was estahlishp-d last May to
prospect for copper in Chile.
Pakistan: President Yahya Khan reportedly has
had a new constitution drawn up and intends to pub-
lish it next January following the completion of
the preliminary electoral rolls. In a nationwide
broadcast on 28 July, Yahya warned that he would
propose a constitution if the country's disparate
politicians failed to come up with their own. It
is uncertain whether a government-sponsored consti-
tution would be acceptable, particularly to students
and other dissidents, but Yahya is said to have al-
ready gained the sport of popular Bengali politi-
cian Mujibur Rahman.
9 Oct 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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