CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A014300060001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 9, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
'90
9 August 1969
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No. 0190/69
9 August 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: The Soviets are girding for pos-
sible violence during the invasion anniversary. (Page 2)
Romania-USSR: The two countries have restated their
views at the party congress in Bucharest. (Page 4)
Western Europe: The devaluation of the franc will have
broad repercussions. (Page 5)
Israel-Jordan: Israel has retaliated for alleged fed-
ayeen and Jordanian Army activity. (Page 7)
Malaysia: Antagonism between Malays is adding to the
precariousness of the political situation. (Page 8)
Burma: Rice exports this year may be the lowest since
World War II. (Page 9)
Greece: Two different groups appear to be behind the
recent bombings in Athens. (Page 10)
Congo (Kinshasa): The government has taken a hard-
nose atti.tu e toward student demonstrations. (Page 11)
USSR-China:
Border talks (Page 12)
Colombia: Guerrillas Page
Panama: Insurgents (Page 13)
Chile-USSR: Soviet diplomat (Page 13)
Surinam-Guyana: Border dispute (Page 13)
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E South Vietnam: Several sharp military engage-
ments occurred on 7-8 August, but enemy-initiated
activity remained at the relatively low levels of
the past few weeks.
Heavy fighting erupted just south of the Demil-
itarized Zone on 7 August when US Marines engaged
Communist forces in three separate battles. Scattered
action elsewhere generally was prompted by allied
initiatives.
There are tenuous signs that the Communists may
be maneuvering toward a new announcement concerning
the Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG). The
PRG press spokesman in Paris on 7 August said once
again that the Communists are consulting with non-
Communist South Vietnamese opposed to the present
Saigon government. In response to a newsman's ques-
tion, he claimed that discussions were going on in
Paris, South Vietnam, and elsewhere on the "restora-
tion of peace and cessation of the American war of
aggression."
This statement could mean that the Communists
intend to push some kind of cease-fire scheme under
the auspices of various non-Communist South Vietnam-
ese. It seems more likely, however, that the Commu-
nists might either broaden the PRG or attempt to as-
sociate it more closely with other groups or individ-
uals, perhaps even in a "provisional coalition." A
new move, however, might be merely an announcement
of a meeting of some of these groups and the issuance
of a set of common objectives.
the commu-
nists nave made some headway in getting he coopera-
tion of certain South Vietnamese exiles in Paris. A
hint of something new to come was also dropped in a
Viet Cong broadcast on 2 August that a "draft plan to
heighten further the prestige" of the PRG had re-
cently been adopted at a meeting of PRG officials.
I
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: After nearly a year's oc-
cupation the Soviets have achieved only some of their
aims and are now girding for possible violence during
the anniversary of the invasion.
Moscow's record in Czechoslovakia suggests that
it may regard forcible measures rather than concilia-
tion as the best means of avoiding aflareup on 20
August. The Soviets have reason to be concerned. The
population is ignoring official appeals not to engage
in any kind of demonstration; handbills continue to
appear, mostly calling for peaceful anti-Soviet and
antiregime demonstrations. Nevertheless, tension is
so high in some areas that a small wrong move could
grow into something more serious. In the'past few
weeks there have been instances of violence directed
against Soviets. While no large-scale violence is
likely, the possibility of isolated outbreaks is real.
Hardliners in the Czechoslovak party, probably
confident of Soviet backing, are critical of party
chief Husak for proceeding too slowly in recreating
an orthodox Communist regime. They are calling for
arrests and trials of liberals and other anti-Soviet
and anti-Communist individuals. They want a condemna-
tion of Dubcek, Smrkovsky, and others. They want the
government to follow the party's orders again, and
demand that nonparty groups such as labor unions and
student groups profess their fealty or disband. Most
of all, they want the leadership to justify the War-
saw Pact's invasion.
Husak condemned the invasion along with other
leaders and is holding off from endorsing it. Husak,
who suffered long imprisonment in the name of Soviet
Communism, is opposed to the return of terror and
wants to run a controlled version of last year's
participatory government.
In an effort to obtain a statement justifying
the invasion, the Soviets are undoubtedly pressing
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demands similar to those expressed by the Czechoslo-
vak conservatives on Husak and President Svoboda,
who have been closeted with Brezhnev and Podgorny
in the Crimea since last weekend. The Soviet leaders
may also be calling for a ruthless purge of Dubcek's
appointees and their replacement by reliable hard-
liners. The same kind of pressure is probably being
exerted in Prague under the direction of General
Yepishev, chief of the Soviet armed forces political
administration, who arrived on 6 August. He may be
taking a hand in a purge of liberal and anti-Soviet
officers in the Czechoslovak armed forces which seems
to be reaching further into the upper levels of the
defense ministry. Yepishev may also be looking at
the readiness of Soviet forces and trying to determine
the reliability of the Czechoslovak armed forces.
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Romania-USSR% Romanian and Soviet spokesmen at
the party congress in Bucharest are talking past each
other, restating their divergent views but avoiding
an open clash.
Ceausescu spoke of a system of sovereign Commu-
nist states but again opposed the concept of a bloc.
He defined imperialism in a way that could apply
equally to the USSR and the US. He expressed a deter-
mination to fight to preserve his country's indepen-
dence but at the same time took a conciliatory line
toward Moscow.
The Soviet delegate, K.V. Katushev, indirectly
reproached Bucharest for President Nixon's visit by
condemning "the perfidious practice of bridgebuilding."
He declared Moscow's intent to "resist" economic and
political penetration of Communist countries by non-
Communists, and reminded all present that the Kremlin
considers itself entitled to act against dissidents
who threaten the Communist system. Katushev's speech,
nevertheless, met with strong rebuffs from the Yugo-
slav, Italian, and Spanish parties.
Katushev's remarks were backed up yesterday by
an article in Izvestia containing Moscow's first di-
rect and authoritative statement linking criticism
of the "bridgebuilding" concept with President Nixon's
visit to Romania.
Katushev's walkout while a telegram from the ab-
sent Chinese Communists was read reflected the Soviets'
displeasure not only with the Chinese but also in part
with the Romanians. Katushev's act seemed planned in
advance for maximum effect. Peking's otherwise rou-
tine greeting wished Romania success in its "defense
of national independence and socialism," an oblique
dig at Moscow's doctrine of "limited sovereignty."
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I Western Europe: The decision to devalue the
franc yesterday was made in response to the pressure
of steadily declining external reserves and in an-
ticipation of heavy speculation against France's cur-
rency this autumn.
The Pompidou government. took the international
financial community, including the finance ministries
and treasuries of the major Western countries, com-
pletely by surprise. The value of the franc has
been reduced by 11,1 percent, and the gold content
of the French currency has now fallen from 0.180 to
0.160 grams.
In light of the pressures which have been build-
ing against the franc since the political troubles
of May and June 1968 as well as the widely recognized
overvaluation of the franc relative to the West Ger-
man mark, devaluation has been one of the most likely
options available to the post - De Gaulle government.
It was not expected at precisely this time, however,
inasmuch as relative calm had returned to world ex-
change markets. The French have thus scored an im-
pressive tactical success by accomplishing their de-
valuation amid a minimum of speculative pressures.
The devaluation will have major repercussions
throughout Western Europe, although competitive de-
valuations of other currencies are not expected. The
move will throw the EEC's agricultural financing
scheme--and therefore the Common Agricultural Policy--
into even greater disarray. The British pound, now
rendered even weaker by the French move, almost cer-
tainly will suffer speculative attack when the major
foreign exchange markets reopen on Monday. Although
a principal source of speculative pressure for re-
valuation of the deutschemark has been removed by
the devaluation, the German currency remains substan-
tially undervalued against most other major curren-
cies, so that the speculative crisis expected after
the German elections still may occur.
tcontinued)
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C Devaluation will help considerably to slow the
growth of French imports and should stimulate French
exports, thus beginning to reduce the French trade
imbalance that had grown to serious proportions dur-
ing 1968 and 1969. Devaluation will have to be
buttressed by a continuation or intensification of
restrictive policies designed to moderate the French
economic boom. But in the longer run it may facil-
itate French economic expansion by easing the pres-
sure on the balance of payments.
Other members of the franc currency zone have
been invited to a meeting in Paris tomorrow to dis-
cuss the impact of the devaluation on their curren-
cies.
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Israel-Jordan: Israeli planes have hit Jordan
for the third time in three days in response to what
Tel Aviv claims is increased fedayeen and Jordanian
Army activity.
Israeli aircraft yesterday. attacked army posi-
tions near the southern end of the Dead Sea. Earlier,
a spokesman for the Palestine Armed Struggle Command
claimed that several hundred Arab commandos had struck
three military outposts in the northern Jordan Valley,
causing heavy casualties. An Israeli Army spokesman
denied the Arab claims, but acknowledged that a set-
tlement in the northern Jordan Valley had been hit by
bazooka fire.
On Wednesday Israeli jets struck a Jordanian
brigade headquarters. On Thursday other army positions
were hit after an Israeli soldier and a civilian were
killed and 12 soldiers wounded when a bus ran over a
mine south of Lake Tiberias.
The Israelis have asserted that during the past
week the Jordanian Army has fired "at any target
found," military or civilian, but primarily military.
They say that the Jordanians have used tanks and
artillery as well as small arms. The Israelis be-
lieve that this is not the result of local initiative
but of a higher level decision.
Unless the Jordanians cool things off along the
cease-fire line they can expect more Israeli retalia-
tion.
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Malaysia: Growing antagonism between Malay
moderates and extremists is adding to the precarious-
ness of the political situation.
The recent ouster by Prime Minister Rahman of
two prominent Malay chauvinists from responsible posi-
tions in the government and ruling party has appar-
ently checked for the moment the extremists' efforts
to challenge Rahman's leadership. Nevertheless, it
seems probable that a majority of the rank and file
of the party support the extremists, and the positions
of the moderates and extremists are polarizing.
The other ministers have stood by Rahman, and,
at least by implication, endorsed his conciliatory
policies toward Malaysia's Chinese community. This
has had the effect of undermining Malay support for
the entire government, because most Malays see the
Chinese as responsible for the country's current dif-
ficulties and tend to turn against even hitherto
popular Malay politicians such as the home minister,
who recently attacked the extremists for trying to un-
seat Rahman. Many Malays have been calling for
Rahman's resignation, and there is some evidence that
he would like to quit when the time seems propitious.
For the near term, the extremists still do not
appear to have developed sufficient strength to effect
a change in party leadership. The moderates within
the party continue to retain both firm control over
the national administration and the loyalty of the
police and the upper echelons of the military. A
recurrence of serious communal violence, which could
come at any time, would greatly strengthen the ex-
tremists' hand. F7 I
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Burma: Rice exports this year may be the lowest
since World War II.
Exports of this commodity, Rangoon's principal
source of foreign exchange earnings, have declined
steadily since 1963 when Burma led the world with
exports of 1.7 million tons. Last year they fell to
350,000 tons. Production has remained fairly stable,
but a low government purchase price has encouraged
domestic sales in the black market at the expense of
exports. A bumper crop,in 1968 and increased sales
to the government despite the low price have increased
the supply of available export stocks to more than
500,000 tons, but Burma's principal customers have
lower import requirements this year.
Ceylon's record rice crop makes purchases from
Burma this. year unnecessary, and Indonesia's require-
ments have been met by a bumper crop and US PL-480
assistance. India bought about 200,000 tons of Bur-
mese rice earlier this year, but no further purchases
are contemplated. Because rice contracts as of July
1969 had been concluded for only 295,000 tons and no
further large orders are in sight, Burma's exports
in 1969 may not amount to much more than 300,000 tons.
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Greece: Greek authorities believe that two
different groups are responsible for the recent spate
of bombings in the Athens area.
Some of the arrested professors, lawyers, and
students reportedly have confessed to bombing some
government buildings. They are said to have organ-
ized the resistance organization, the Democratic
Defense, and to be supporters of Andreas Papandreou.
The homemade bombs were reportedly delivered to Athens
by a Swedish citizen late in April; Papandreou's front
group is based in Stockholm.
Since the middle of May at least two dozen home-
made bombs have been exploded in various government
buildings and American cars and installations. Leaf-
lets left at the scene of the bombings of American
property led authorities to believe that a conserva-
tive proroyalist group was responsible. Security
officials, however, were not convinced that the same
group had bombed the Greek buildings.
. Greek authorities now conclude that the resist-
ance group is responsible for the bombings of public
places in the center of Athens, while retired or
cashiered military officers are behind the bombings
of American cars. Although no one has been seriously
injured, the Greek Government is anxious to stop
these incidents before they adversely affect tourism.
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Congo (Kinshasa): Some 35 students have been
put on trial for fomenting demonstrations in Kin-
shasa last June.
Use of troops to disperse Lovanium University
students parading through downtown Kinshasa on 4
June resulted in the death of at least a dozen stu-
dents. The bloodshed and peremptory closing of
Lovanium provoked sympathy demonstrations and strikes
at the Congo's two smaller universities and several
technical schools. An early summer recess deflected
the sympathy strike undertaken at the Official Uni-
versity of the Congo in Lubumbashi, which might have
led to clashes between students and troops. Most
students at the technical schools then yielded to an
ultimatum that they take final exams in June or face
expulsion.
The trial of the students may be intended to
set the stage for reopening Lovanium in the fall.
President Mobutu's firm stance toward student pro-
tests probably convinced most students that marching
on government buildings is even more perilous than
taking make-up exams.
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USSR-China: The border river navigation talks
conducted in Khabarovsk since 18 June have ended.
TASS has announced that the two sides signed a pro-
tocol on the improvement of shipping on border water-
ways for the current season, and that the next annual
meeting will be held in China. The apparent success
of the talks came in spite of tensions between the
two sides and shows that on matters of mutual prac-
tical advantage they are able to reach agreement de-
spite their problems. F_ I
Colombia: The ambush and murder of all ten mem-
bers of an army patrol in central Colombia on 6 Aug-
ust demonstrates that security forces have not elim-
inated guerrillas in inaccessible areas. A strong
antiguerrilla campaign has greatly reduced their ac-
tivity in the past two years, but recent attacks in-
dicate that competing guerrilla groups responsive to
Havana, Moscow, and Peking retain some capabilities
in remote areas protected by rugged terrain.
(continued)
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Panama:
small insurgent bands have been operating for
e first time in an area less than 50 miles east
of Panama City. .National guard forces have arrested
some 20 persons there because of suspected links to
deposed president Arnulfo Arias.
five well-armed "guerrillas," also
believed to be Arias supporters, were captured by
Costa Rican authorities on 3 August near the Panama-
nian border. Although these are the first reported
actions after a long period of quiet, the chances
of a signific nt resumption of rural insurgency ap-
pear remote.
Chile-USSR: The Soviet union wishes to assign
a diplomat to its embassy in Santiago to work as
liaison with the UN Economic Commission for Latin
America. Such an assignment would require special
permission from the Chilean Government because it
would further exceed the official quota for Soviet
diplomats in Chile. The Soviet deputy permanent
representative to the UN said that the request was
being made to "symbolize the interest of the USSR
in Latin America." The matter has been referred to
President Frei for final decision.
I Surinam-Guyana: The Guyana Government has con-
firme that a small Surinam military contingent has
occupied a portion of the two countries' disputed
border area. Surinam has long laid claim to the
area--almost 6,000 square miles of Guyana's eastern
region--and although the dispute has been a major
source of friction it has not resulted in an armed
clash. Nevertheless, the Surinam encroachment comes
at a time when the Guyana Government is worried about
Venezuela's claims to over half of Guyana's territory,
and may give Prime Minister Burnham's domestic oppon-
ents the opportunity to embarrass the government over
its handling of the entire border problem.
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