CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013900020001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 5, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51.
5 June 1969
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0134/69
5 June 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia: Husak may have temporarily bought
the support of pro-Soviet conservatives. (Page 3)
Latin America: Opposition to the Rockefeller mission
continues to mount. (Page 5)
Chile: Laws are being drafted to nationalize US-owned
copper companies. (Page 6)
Guatemala: A new round of terrorism seems likely.
(Page 7)
Ecuador: Leftists exploit government's inability to
control student lawlessness. (Page 8)
Communist China: Disunity and violence beset provincial
governments. (Page 9)
USSR: Soviet forces in East Germany are being
equipped with SA-4 surface-to-air missiles. (Page 11)
India: Violence has erupted in Andhra Pradesh. (Page 13)
Congo (Kinshasa): Calm returns after a clash between
students and police. (Page 14)
International Labor: The WCL moves to become a truly
world-wide labor international. (Page 15)
International Communism: Moscow conference (Page 17)
Arab States: Fedayeen's anti-US plans (Page 17)
Curacao: Still tense (Page 17)
Peru. Communist labor confederation (Page 18)
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L Demilitarized Zone
AVERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENEMY UNITS
Regiment: VC 1,000-1,500
NVA 1,200-2,000
Division: VC 5,000-7,000
NVA 5,000-8,000
SOUTH VIETNAM
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Vietnam: @ommunist forces have been alerted
for a ~J une Action Period,"
The. attacks could come soon, and are slated to
be countrywide. Enemy troops are being called on to
exert stronger action on the battlefield, while guer-
rillas are to increase activity against the major
cities. The Communists could be planning a new
phase of violence to coincide with the Midway meet-
ing on 8 June
enemy did not launch any significant attacks
on 3-TJune, but some sharp clashes occurred in Binh
Long Province north of Saigon, and in a few delta
provinces. South Vietnamese civilians in the delta
suffered heavy losses from enemy mining and bombing
After some dramatic gains, the pacification
program in South Vietnam faces a period of slow=,
down and consolidation.
The recovery of contested areas during the Ac-
celerated Pacification Campaign in late 1968 and early
1969 led to improved security in many parts of the
countryside. Other major factors contributing to
rapid progress in the same period were the absence
of any concerted enemy drive against the pacifica-
tion program and greater availability of US forces
for security operations,
In
recent months, however, there has been
some
slowing
down of the rate of progress. This is
due
partly
to a normal loss of government momentum
dur-
ing the Tet holidays and partly to upsurges of
Com-
munist military activity in March and May.
(continued)
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C Moreover, the 1969 pacification effort focuses
heavily on consolidating past gains, particularly in
those areas where the government has recently estab-
lished a full-time military presence but where some
Viet Cong influence and activity persist. Saigon
also hopes soon to expand its authority to persons
living in some long-time Viet Cong redoubts where
it will face even tougher opposition.
In addition, the current pacification concept
has shifted from the hamlet to the more complex vil-
lage level. The effort to strengthen village gov--
ernments will require a considerable training and
organizing period. At present, Saigon appears hard
pressed to provide the necessary financial and skilled
human resources both to consolidate its recent gains
and to expand to new areas.
Despite the Communists' current low-level re-
sponse, there are indicatio s that pacification is
causing problems for them. reflect
some erosion of Viet Cong control or intiuence over
segments of the population and resultant difficulties
in obtaining adequate manpower and resource to meet
the Communists' military and economic nee ss s Enemy
documents continue to give high-priority to dest ?uc.
tion of the programs.
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Czechoslovakia: Party first secretary Husak
may have temporarily bought the support of pro-So-
viet conservatives.
The moderate Husak leadership, which has been
under incessant pressure from the hard-liners, has
returned them to positions of power in the party.
Conservative leader Lubomir Strougal has been given
a new prominence as Husak's deputy. Party secretary
Indra, who was accused of collaborating with the
Soviets at the time of the invasion last August,
has been given responsibility for state and social
organizations. He is now in a position to place
other conservatives in high government posts and
in such major national organizations as the trade
unions. A Moscow-trained, former Stalinist youth
leader has replaced a recalcitrant liberal as head
of the key Prague city party committee, which until
3 June had been the last remaining stronghold of
the liberals in the party.
In theory, Strougal will now have to answer
directly to Husak for his actions. In practice,
however, Strougal's new prestige, as well as his
control of the largest regional party body--the
Czech party bureau--makes him more of a potential
rival to Husak.
A struggle for power between Husak and Strougal
is a distinct possibility; the two men have dissim-
ilar backgrounds, temperaments, and political out-
looks. For the present, Husak needs the conserva-
tives to help reassert the party's authority but
his attempts to keep them within bounds will prob-
ably lead to trouble. The time may soon come when
the hard-liners find Husak an obstacle to their am-
bitions. Many of the liberals recently demoted by
Husak probably would have supported him in a clash
with the conservatives.
(continued)
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The present political setup, even aside from
any disputes between Husak and Strougal, will prob-
ably exacerbate animosities between the Czechs and
the Slovaks. Husak's base is in Slovakia, where he
commands considerable respect for his Slovak nation-
alism and where he has imposed his strong will on
the party. Many Czechs distrust him, however, be-
cause of his nationalism and his espousal of feder-
alization: of the party and government--a policy which
eventually would give the Slovak minority near equal-
ity with the more numerous Czechs. Strougal prob-
ably is not above capitalizing on such distrust. As
a consequence, the nationalities problem may become
critical.
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C Latin America: Opposition to the Rockefeller
mission continues to mounE3.
The Chilean Government has decided to cancel
the visit, and Foreign Minister Valdes plans to an-
nounce that during his appointment with the Governor
in Washington next week he will explain the reasons
for the decision. The government's action will have
virtually unanimous support from all sectors of so-
ciety as most Chileans clearly believe that the
visit is not worth the cost of whatever casualties
might be suffered during planned anti-US demonstra-
tion
Mangy believe, moreover, that the Governor's
visit--has been superseded by joint Latin American
efforts to draft a united position to present to
President Nixon. President Frei's decision was
also probably affected by his belief that conflict
over the visit was weakening his ability to control
Chile's fractious politicians.
position forces in Brazil are also preparing
to protest the Rockefeller mission. Radical student
leaders reportedly are ready to make an all-out ef-
fort to stage demonstrations, despite the knowledge
that they will invite heavy government repression.
The students not only want to embarrass the US but
also to show their opposition to the Costa e Silva
administration; many believe that they must prove
they are as militant as students in other countries.
Brazilian security forces and general public apathy
will probably combine to make nationwide demonstra-
tions unlikely, but such agitation as develops may
well encourage Brazil's well-organized terrorist
groups to try violent action on their ow7n::.~
ih le's cancellation of the visit, two days
of anti Rockefeller student riots in Santiago, and
Venezuela's postponement of the visit will probably
cause other Latin American governments to take a
harder look at their own situation and perhap sug-
--+- nAnnpl 1 ati on or postponement of the vi it.
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Chile: All political parties except the Radi-
cals and Nationals are drafting legislation that
would nationalize US-owned copper companies..
On 2 June representatives of the Communists,
the Socialists, and a break-away group of left-wing
Christian Democrats met to discuss a Communist
draft. Most of the political fire is being directed
at the Anaconda company, which retained full control
of its existing installations under the Chileaniza-
tion agreements signed in 1966 and 1967.
President Frei's Christian Democratic Party is
also considering nationalization legislation. A
group of moderate Christian Democrats has proposed
a bill that, would nationalize the Anaconda installa-
tions, paying for them over a period of 10 to 15
years on the basis of the original investment minus
depreciation. A declaration by the National Coun-
cil of the Christian Democratic Party emphasized
the necessity to obtain "full recovery" of the min-
erals in the Anaconda mines in the shortest possible
time.
President Frei, hoping to postpone nationaliza-
tion, has proposed revision of the Chileanization
agreements to give the government a controlling in-
terest in the Anaconda operations. Congress opened
yesterday, and copper legislation promises to be
one of the most important issues debated during the
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Guatemala: xnmunist-inspired violence has
increased during the past month, and a new round
of terrorism and counterterrorism now seems more
likely.
President Mendez has reportedly recalled Colo-
nel Manuel Sosa Avila from his diplomatic exile in
Spain to become minister of government. Sosa,
formerly chief of the national police, was one of
the three top security men ousted in March 1968
when Mendez called a halt to the clandestine coun-
terterror campaign against the Communists. One of
the others, Colonel Carlos Arana, is the rightist
presidential candid te.
The choice of a tough anti-Communist to coor-
dinate police activities is probably designed to
offset reaction against appointments to various
government posts of persons considered leftist by
political conservatives. Sosa's_return may also
indicate that the government is ready to opt for
the counterterror method in the event Communist
activity continues to grow.
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Ecuador: President Velasco's inability to con-
trol student lawlessness is encouraging leftist
plans for further disruptive actions.
Velasco vacillated for nearly two months on
how to deal with secondary students who had seized
most of the University of Guayaquil in early April
to enforce demands that university entrance exami-
nations be abolished. His indecisiveness emboldened
students and hoodlums to activities that have dis-
rupted downtown Guayaquil, Ecuador's largest city,
as well as. other provincial capita. s.
Suddenly, on the eve of Governor Rockefel.ler's
arrivaI-"in Ecuador, Velasco ordered security forces
to retake Guayaquil University. This was done on
29 May in a battle in which six or more students
were killed and many injured. The government aban-
doned the administration building without explana-
tion on 2 June, and the building was immediately
reoccupied.
Ecuadorean, leftists, usually ineffectual be-
cause of their lack of agreement among themselves,
were encouraged by the public's adverse reaction
to the government's handling of the university cri-
sis. on 31 May they met to pool efforts to dis-
credit Velasco in the hope of helping to oust him.
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Communist China: Political disunity and spo-
radic factional violence continue to beset China's
provincial governments.
Recent national and provincial radiobroadcasts
reiterating the ninth party congress' call to "unify
leadership" at local levels indicate that officials
of the revolutionary committees now governing China's
29 provincial-level units still have far to go in
rebuilding effective power structures. Continuing
weaknesses and divisions at the basic levels of gov-
ernment were highlighted at a series of provincial
party meetings last month. These meetings were used
to warn local authorities that failure to restore
unity threatened the policies and programs outlined
at the ninth congress.
Recurring disorders in both east and west China
suggest that factional conflicts are preventing some
provincial governments from consolidating their au-
thority and dealing with basic law and order problems.
Armed clashes were reported last month from at least
a half dozen provinces.
I limited fac-
tional fighting also broke out again t month in
Canton--the first such incident since the heavy
crackdown on Red Guards there last August.
Canton authorities are increas-
ingly over the problem of maintaining
order.
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USSR: Qaviet forces in East Germany are being
equip with the SA-4 mobile surface-to-air missile
system
Missile cannisters and vehicles associated with
the SA-4 Ganef missile at two
locations in East Germany soutnwest o er in. The
normal deployment pattern of new SAM systems has
been to distribute them to forces in the USSR first
and then to equip Soviet forces in East German
he SA-4 missile and its associated radars are
mounted on tracked vehicles and can provide more
mobile antiaircraft missile protection for field
forces than the widely deployed SA-2 system. The
SA-4 ma l be more effective a a' st low-fl
aircraft.
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INDIA: Major Violence Erupts in Andhra Pradesh
AFGHANISTAN
PAKIST'AN
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MINICOY,
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ANDHRA
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f1hsbaneswar,
Andhra Pradesh
upset by agitation
for Telengana
statehood
Province capital
Province boundary
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India: Major violence has erupted in Andhra
Pradesh State, where agitation demanding separate
statehood for the Telengana region has been fester-
ing for five months.
Army troops have been called in by state author-
ities, but the violence that resulted in at least 19
deaths on 2-4 June shows no sign of slackening. The
agitation is now supported by the Telengana sections
of most of the state's political parties, including
some prominent members of the state's governing Con-
gress Party.
Because New Delhi fears regional fragmentation,
it has thus far been willing to grant only modest
concessions, designed mainly to reduce economic in-
equities. It may now become more conciliatory, how-
ever, in an effort to calm the situation. One pos-
sibility is that Chief Minister Brahmananda Reddy,
who symbolizes state government intransigence on
Telengana grievences, may be forced to resign.
Prime Minister Gandhi left suddenly for Hydera-
bad yesterday but it is unclear what she might offer
the dissidents.
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Congo (Kinshasa) : /Kinshasa is calm following
the clash between tuden s and security forces early
Wednesday mornin
Students from Lovanium University had originally
planned a campus strike to protest the overnment's
failure to produce a promised increase in their
monthly subsidies. Hoping to attract greater atten-
tion, however, approximately 400 of them left the
university campus, commandeered-several busses, and
went into downtown Kinshasa for a demonstration.
I
President Mobutu, traditionally unsympathetic
to student complaints, apparently considered the
demonstration an overt political threat to his re-
gime and ordered police and gendarme units to deal
with the students without mercy. By the time the
demonstrators were dispersed, eight students had
been killed, 20 wounded, and many more arrested.
The government claims that at least six members of
the security forces were wounded and that molotov
cocktails were used by the students. Kinshasa radio
later accused certain unnamed foreign embassies of
subverting the students. Lovann University has
been closed until further notice.
Initially, the students have reacted mildly,
but a-s'9-tories of the harsh reprisals circulate
among them, they probably will become more agitated.
Further demonstrations are doubtful, however. The
students apparently were unaware of the present
tension within the security forces caused by rumors
that former mercenary leader Jean Schramjme has re-
turned to Africa. This tension may have] prompted
the usually harsh repression
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International Labor: The process of converting
the World Confederation of Labor (WCL) into a truly
world-wide labor international has been carried fur-
ther, but differences among th,regional affiliates
are already proving troublesome.
The WCL, until recently known as the Interna-
tional Federation of Christian Trade Unions, devoted
most of its 17th congress, held in Geneva last week,
to drafting anew constitution and bylaws that would
take the WCL out of its predominantly European frame-
work. The debate was dominated by the Latin Ameri-
can Federation of Christian Trade Unionist (CLASC),
the militant Latin American wing of the WCL.
The growing importance of CLASC in the WCL was
also T dicated by the prominent role of its leader,
Emilio Maspero, as rapporteur in a discussion of
the "Strategy, Policy, and Action Program of the
WCL." Maspero, criticizing the role of American
labor unions, particularly the AFL-CIO, in underde-
veloped areas, called for "revolutionary change" in
trade union organization and transformation of the
WCL into a trade union center of the underdeveloped
of delegates responded sharply
countries. A numbex.
,
to Maspero's remarks.
At one point, the irritation of the European
delegates over the dominance of "CLASC nearly de-
stroyed the congress. A substantial number of Eu-
ropeans, in reaction to an amendment which they
said had been "forced on them," walked out. They
later returned? however, when the vote on thg, amend-
ment had been reversed by a second roll call
.role of CLASC in the congress indicates
the problems WCL faces in its efforts to become a
genuine world organization. The European members
could eventually conclude that letting CLASC and
other militant affiliates set the tone fox the WCL
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may be too high a price to pay to achieve this goal.
Nevertheless, in addition to bringing out real prob-
lems, the Congress revealed the potential of WCI
for becoming an effective world-wide organization.)
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International Communism: Representatives of
more than 70 Communist parties are gathering in
Moscow for the international conference which opens
today. The only important breakthrough the Soviets
made on attendance appears to be the presence of a
delegation of Cuban observers. There is still dis-
agreement on the wording of the main conference
document. Even if the differences are ironed out at
the plenary sessions, there is a good prospect that
the speeches of individual delegates will go beyond
agreed positions. The possibility remains therefore
that some delegations--notably the Rumanian and
Italian--will find a way to dissociate themselves
from the confereace proceedings.
Arab States: The Popular Front for the Libera-
tion of Palestine, one of the more irresponsible
and active fedayeen groups, has announced it is em-
barking on a campaign to destroy all US "interests"
in the Arab world. The statement, issued in Jordan
on 3 June, said the organization's blowing up of
Tapline in Israeli-occupied Syrian territory last
week marked the beginning of this drive. The most
vulnerable US targets would be other oil installa-
tions and commercial aircraft. Over the past year,
this group attacked Israeli El Al airliners in Athens
and 7nrich. and hijacked still another from Rome.
Curacao: (mom e has been no renewal of violence
since the riots last week, but Willemstad remains in
a high state of apprehension. The government's de-
cision to dissolve the legislature and hold new
elections is likely to appease the unions, at least
temporarily. Elections probably will be held within
a few months. Mbar hile. heavy patrolling_by the_
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Peru: The Communist labor confederation plans
to use the celebration of its first anniversary to
obtain the membership of the one additional labor
federation needed to qualify for government recogni-
tion. This would empower it to represent its member
unions in bargaining and in dealing with the govern-
ment and thus enhance the prestige and influence of
the Communist Party. Observers from the Soviet
Union and Hungary are expected at the anniversary
celebrations, which are to include a mass march in
port of the policies. of the military aovernment.1
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