CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013500070001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 18, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
51
18 April 1969
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No. 0093/69
18 April 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Korea: The North Korean regime is exploiting the
shootdown to rally the population around the lead-
ership. (Page 2)
Czechoslovakia: Dubcek ousted; regime satisfactory
to Soviets installed. (Page 5)
Australia-Malaysia-Philippines: Southeast Asian
regional cooperation may be threatened by Australia's
gift of ten. Sabre jets to Malaysia. (Page 7)
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Cuba: Anti-US speech (Page 10)
Nigeria: Military situation (Page 11)
Turkey: Student unrest (Page 11)
Indonesia: West Irian self-determination (Page 11)
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[Vietnam: Communist units in the delta attacked
South Vietnamese bivouac positions on 17 April. The
rest of the country was relatively quiet.
Localized actions, coupled with occasional co-
ordinated shellings, have characterized Communist
initiatives for several weeks. Captured documents
suggest that this pattern will continue for some
time in both I Corps and III Corps.
Recently available press materials from North
Vietnam indicate that domestic problems have taken
much of the attention formerly given the war. Al-
though some decline could be expected with the end
of the air war in the North and the opening of the
peace talks, the war news has fallen off signifi-
cantly in the first quarter of this year. In March,
the war probably occupied less than a quarter of
the total news space in the main North Vietnamese
party daily, compared with almost half last fall,
and an overwhelming proportion a year ago.
This shift in press emphasis suggests that the
Hanoi leadership has reoriented its priorities and
is paying considerably more attention to domestic
matters. A large portion of the news coverage is
devoted to the problems of economic reconstruction
and development, but even more attention is being
paid to problems of restructuring the society along
Communist lines. Some of the discussions indicate
a feeling that there is considerable drift away
from these lines at present.
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Korea: The. North Korean regime is exploiting
the shootdown of the US aircraft on 15 April to
rally the population around the leadership of Kim
Il-song and the Communist Party.],
a congratulatory statement to the unit
which was involved in the attack., Defense Minister
Choe Hyon called the US flight a link in a premed-
itated scheme to provoke a new war. He depicted
the incident as showing that "war may break out at
The Pyongyang leadership long has used the
threat of a US invasion to justify the party's
harsh demands on the population. Periodic "proof"
that the threat is real is essential if the war
psychosi j4 to be sustained for exploitation by
the regime.
The South Korean Government appears anxious
not to--g-et too far ahead of the US position on the
shootdown. In a relatively moderate statement, the
government yesterday condemned the "outrageous, il-
legal, barbaric" North Korean action and called on
the "US and the free world-to take prompt and ef-
fective countermeasures to prevent once and. for all
the Northern puppets from playing with fire and
provoking war." The statement avoided any demand
for immediate military retaliation and asserted
only that North Korea's :Leaders "should receive due
punishment for the crime they committed." The
Seoul press, however, is continuing to call for im-
mediate retaliation
Japanese Prime Minister Sato publicly censured
Pyongyang in the Diet yesterday, stating that the
North Korean action should be "internationally con-
demned." He noted that "all countries" engage in
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reconnaissance flights for the purpose of security,
and he stipulated that such operations from Japanese
bases did not require prior consultations under the
security treaty. Sato, however, has expressed what
is clearly the Japanese public's hope that the US
will take a cautious attitude and that the incident
will not develop into any further conflict. This
hope has also been reflected in commentary by For-
eign Minister Aichi, Japanese defense officials,
and the news media. Sato also implied a concern
that US retaliation might affect the progress of
negotiations on the return of Okinawa to Japanese
administration.
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GUSTAV HUSAK
New Party First Secretary
CZECHOSLOVAK COMMUNIST PARTY
as of 17 April 1969
Cernik, Oldrich (M) Bilak, Vasil (C)
Erban, Evzen (M) Colotka, Peter (M)
Piller, Jan (C) Dubcek, Alexander(M)
Polacek., Karel (L) Husak, Gustav (M)
Strougal, Lubomir (C) Sadovsky, Stefan (M)
Svoboda, Ludvik (M)
Both Czech. & Slovak leaders shown;
Slovaks in italics
M-Moderate
L-Liberal
C-Conservative
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Czechoslovakia: The Dubcek experiment to fuse
socialism with democracy is over.
The "realism" of new party first secretary
Gustav Husak replaces the idealism of Alexander
Dubcek. To most Czechoslovaks, the change means
succumbing to Soviet pressures with a new leader-
ship responsive to Moscow's demands. There has
been no reaction from Moscow yet, but the Soviets
probably are pleased.
The central committee reduced the size of the
party presidium from 23 to 11 members, in the proc-
ess removing from power 11 of Dubcek's moderate and
liberal supporters.
The new leadership is dominated by "realists,"
most of whom, like Husak, believe that the only
feasible course is cooperation with Moscow. Dubcek
was named to the new presidium, but the outspoken
Josef Smrkovsky was dropped. The shifts probably
presage similar changes in the government leadership.
Future domestic policies will probably reflect So-
viet desires for "normalization," that is, strict
party control over all aspects of life.
Husak, the 55-year-old Slovak party boss, has
a reputation as a pragmatic authoritarian and so
fierce a Slovak nationalist that he spent the years
1954-60 in jail. He advocates closely controlled
reform. In his maiden speech, Husak said that his
administration would not abandon the reforms begun
in 1968, but that their continuation was absolutely
dependent on an end to anti-Soviet dissidence. He
intends to review reform programs, and warned that
under his leadership liberty would not be "without
limits."
Husak faces an uphill task. He must try to
convince the people that the changes are for the
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best. In order to be effective, he must overcome
the distrust of the Czechs, many of whom despise
his Slovak nationalism as well as his attacks on
the liberal mass media. President Svoboda tried
to smooth the way for Husak by giving him his
strong personal endorsement.
Prague was quiet last night. The airport was
closed and Czechoslovak Army convoys were reported
to be moving into the city. Only a trickle of peo-
ple passed through Wenceslaus Square after police
chased away a band of 200 derisive young people.
The general public may well turn sadly and fear-
fully away from politics following the ouster of
Smrkovsky and the demotion of Dubcek--the champions
of their hopes.
Young workers and students are likely to be
less tractable. They are aroused and their reac-
tions cannot be safely predicted. Police intimida-
tion and the apparent futility of continuing fur-
ther resistance, however, may mean that their oppo-
sition will not be serious enough even to embarrass
the new re ime.
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Australia-Malaysia-Philippines: Philippine
misgivings over Australia's gift of ten Sabre jets
to Malaysia could further damage pro ects for
Southeast Asian regional cooperation
The Philippines, notified on 16 April of the
gift by the Australian Government, has reacted
calmly so far. Foreign Secretary Romulo told the
US Embassy, however, that the Philippines could
only view the gift as further evidence of Australian
support for Malaysia in the Sabah dispute. The
press in Manila has reported only factually but
could easily become critical, forcing the Philippine
Government into a jingoistic position.
Such a turn would reverse tentative steps to-
ward evival of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), which has been in near suspension
over the past year as a result of Philippine-Malay-
sian tensions over Sabah. Partly at Indonesian
urging, Malaysia recently relaxed its demand for a
prior guarantee from the Philippines that it would
not question Malaysian sovereignty over Sabah at
ASEAN political meetings. Kuala Lumpur, however,
holds to its determination to walk ut if the
Philippines should raise the matter.
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NOTES
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Cuba: The high-level. Cuban. delegate at the
meeting in Lima of the UN Economic Commission on
Latin America has reiterated Havana's standard
list of grievances against. the US. In a lengthy
speech, Carlos Rafael Rodriguez blamed underdevel-
opment in Latin America on US "strangulation" and
compared Peru's expropriation of International
Petroleum Company holdings with Fidel Castro's
early moves "to win independence from the imperi-
alist US." He also said that development can be
achieved only "through revolutionary changes."
Rodriguez' speech may be an indication that Cuba
is trying to break out of its isolation in Latin
America by cautiously associating itself with the
Peruvian regime, while at the same time not chang-
ing its basic attitude toward relations with the
US.
(continued)
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Nigeria: The Biafrans still hold Umuahia, but
the civilian administration has apparently left the
town, and the Red Cross has moved its headquarters
to a town about 14 miles from Biafra's one opera-
ting airstrip. Colonel Ojukwu was still in Umuahia
on 16 April, but unless federal forces are driven
back soon, he will probably leave. The large-scale
civilian exodus from Umuahia, where many Ibo tribes-
men had sought refuge during previous federal ad-
vances, will further complicate Biafra's already
serious refugee problem.
Turkey: Student unrest in Ankara and Istanbul
appears to be quieting, at least on the surface,
but protest activity has developed in. the important
southern port city of Izmir. There has been no new
violence, however, and the grievances of the Izmir
students concern educational rather than political
issues. In Istanbul the search of school buildings
continues for concealed weapons and explosives;
some were found earlier in Ankara. The situation
at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara
remains quiet,. but gendarmerie units probably will
remain as a precautionary measure until the end of
the month.
Indonesia: The act of self-determination in
West Irian is proceeding smoothly under Indonesia's
direction. The initial phase--endorsement by West
Irian's eight subprovincial assemblies of Djakarta's
plan for consultation and consensus--has been com-
pleted. District committees will now select members
for enlarged councils that will consult with the
Indonesian Government and ultimately affirm West
Irian's desire to unite formally with Indonesia.
Djakarta hopes the entire process can be completed
by 17 August, Indonesia's Independence Day. Armed
dissidence appears to have ceased and local leaders
seem to realize that there is no alternative to
union with IndonaaLa.,_F I
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C The United States Intelligence Board on
17 April 1969 approved the following national in-
telligence estimates:
SNIE 40/50-69 Prospects for Regional
Security Arrangements in
East Asia over the Next
Five Years
NIE 24-69 'The Center-Left Experi-
ment in Italy: Accomplish-
ments, Shortcomings, and
Prospects
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