CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A013400080001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 5, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5R
5 April 1969
State Dept. review completed
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No. 0082/69
5 April 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Laos: Government forces have abandoned their base
at Thateng?. (Page 2)
Czechoslovakia: Czechoslovak organizations are af-
firming support for Dubcek, but have not specifi-
cally endorsed the new restrictive policies. (Page 3)
Warsaw Pact: Greater integration of Eastern Euro-
peans into the command may be coming. (Page 5)
West Germany - USSR: Brandt is probing bloc pro-
posals regarding European security. (Page 6)
Hungary: Budapest is establishing joint-venture
companies in less-developed countries. (Page 7)
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Japan - Communist China: The Memorandum Trade Agree-
ment has been extended for a year. (Page 9)
Equatorial Guinea: The evacuation of Spanish civil-
ians and troops will probably be followed by further
disorder. (Page 10)
Ethiopia: The Eritrean Liberation Front has made a
successful attack on vital installations. (Page 11)
Ethiopia: New student disturbances may close the
university in Addis Ababa indefinitely. (Page 12)
Rumania-USSR: Minister's visit to Moscow (Page 13)
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AVERAGE STRENGTH
OF ENEMY UNITS
Battalion: VC 200-400
N V A 300-500
Regiment: VC 1,000-1,500
NVA 1,200-2,000
Division: VC 5,000-7,000
N V A 5,000-8,000
I
MILES
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South Vietnam: The continuing low level of
Communist military activity and the signs of dis-
engagement by major enemy units in at least I and
II corps suggest that the six-week, country-wide
offensive could be drawing to a close.
The only significant action on 4 April occurred
in the III Corps area, where South Vietnamese Army
forces engaged company-sized elements of the North
Vietnamese lst Regiment about 15 miles southwest
of Saigon. The Communists initiated 13 rocket and
mortar attacks throughout III Corps.
The enemy still maintains important division-
level forces in the provinces around Saigon, and
there are as many as nine Communist battalions
which could be rapidly employed in the northern
portion of IV Corps. The current posture of these
forces, however, does not suggest that they will
soon be engaged in widespread offensive operations.
A comparison of the enemy's combat losses in
this year's spring offensive with the manpower pro-
vided by North Vietnamese infiltration and local
recruitment indicates that the Communists could
maintain the level of fighting of the past few
weeks through June without seriously cutting into
their pre-offensive strength.
In view of the recent respite in enemy-initi-
ated activity, however, and the evidence of regroup-
ment by some Communist main force elements, it does
not appear that the enemy intends to perpetuate its
campaign into the second quarter of this year with
real intensity.
5 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*Laos: Government forces have abandoned their
base at Thateng in southern Laos.
Faced with low troop morale and difficulties
in moving fresh troops and supplies into the Tha-
teng stronghold, regional commander General Phasouk
ordered the garrison's evacuation on 3 April. Tha-
teng is the first important government position to
fall to the enemy in southern Laos this year. The
government withdrawal comes after a costly five-
month effort by the Communists to take the position.
The loss of Thateng opens up to the enemy a
motorable road onto the eastern portion of the Bo-
lovens Plateau, but it does not significantly al-
ter the military equation in the plateau area. It
is, however, another step in a Communist campaign
that began in late 1967 to isolate the plateau and
keep government forces confined to areas along the
Mekong River.
Recent Pathet Lao harassments along Route 13
appear to be part of this effort, and fresh pres-
sure against small government positions at Keng
Nhao and Paksong may be designed to remove the
last vestiges of government presence in the north-
ern portion of the plateau.
In northern Laos, meanwhile, the military
situation is quiet.
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State.
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Various Czechoslovak
organizations are beginning to affirm their support
for the Dubcek leadership, but have not specifi-
cally endorsed the new restrictive policies.
After hurried consultations, progressive trade
union leaders have agreed to try to calm the situa-
tion. They are urgently attempting to work out a
compromise that would avert a general strike over
proposed price increases. Significantly, the trade
unions have announced for the first time since the
intervention that they will join in Dubcek's "nor-
malization" efforts by exchanging delegations with
the trade unions of the invasion powers.
The unions continue to reject the imposition
of outside censorship on their own long-outspoken
daily newspaper, Prace. They have, however, prom-
ised to control the contents of their publications,
probably in response to warnings that nonparty pub-
lications must comply with current censorship regu-
lations or face punitive measures.
There is no indication as yet, however, that
Czechoslovak students will comply with Dubcek's
new policies.
Dubcek and his colleagues, meanwhile, are at-
tempting to satisfy Moscow's directive calling for
more control over the party and press, without at
the same time alienating the population. In their
initial action, they have reshuffled the editorial
staff of the main party daily, Rude Pravo. This
move, however, probably does not presage a sweeping
purge of the nonparty mass media.
Although Dubcek realizes that he must prevent
further incidents that might provoke the Soviets,
he appears unwilling to deal heavy-handedly with
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dissidents. Instead, he seems to be offering them
still another chance in exchange for promises that
they will not step out of line.
Soviet media have given full coverage to the
statement by the Czechoslovak party presidium on
3 April; this suggests that the stern tone of that
document was welcome in. Moscow. By implicitly en-
dorsing the document, the Soviets probably intend
to place Prague under a stronger obligation to put
into practice the repressive measures it has threat-
ened. Defense Minister Grechko and Deputy Foreign
Minister Semenov were in. Bratislava yesterday, con-
tinuing their round of what Moscow now acknowledges
are "frank" discussions with Czechoslovak leaders.
5 Apr 69
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Warsaw Pact: Steps toward greater integration
of the Eastern Europeans into the Pact's command
structure may be in the offing.
According to members of the Czechoslovak mil-
itary mission in West Berlin, Pact leaders at Buda-
pest "confirmed" the need for such steps. They
said that East German Defense Minister Heinz Hoff-
mann is the logical choice for a senior position
because of his age and experience and because he
has been in Moscow preparing for the new position.
Hoffmann, however, may be in line only for the
chairmanship of the "committee of defense ministers"
which was created at the recent Pact summit meeting
in Budapest. This committee is not in the Pact's
actual chain of command.
The Soviets presumably consider Hoffmann to be
a logical candidate for any new job because of his
amenability to their direction. The continuing ab-
sence from public view of Bulgarian Defense Minister
Dzhurov has led to speculation that he too may be
in line for a new job, possibly as Hoffmann's dep-
uty.
In recent years, the Eastern European members
of the Pact--particularly the Rumanians--have been
pressing the Soviets for a share in the Pact's com-
mand structure. All the members will probably wel-
come any institutional change, but many of them
probably will have doubts that any practical effects
will flow from the appointment of such hard-line
dogmatists as Hoffmann and Dzhurov.
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West Germany__- USSR: Foreign Minister Brandt
asked Soviet Ambassador Tsarapkin at a meeting on
2 April to specify the problems the Communists re-
gard as "ripe for solution."
The two met, in connection with the recent
Budapest "appeal." for a European security confer-
ence. Brandt also asked whether the appeal's em-
phasis on solving problems by peaceful means indi-
cates a willingness by the USSR to move ahead on
West Germany's proposal for agreements renouncing
the use of force.
Brandt further sought clarification as to
whether the Budapest exhortation to the Germans to
accept "existing realities"--recognition of East
Germany and the Oder-Neisse frontier--constitutes
a firm condition for holding a European security
conference or is a matter for negotiation at such
a conference. Finally, the foreign minister sought
Soviet assurances that the US and Canada would be
included in any discussions.
Bonn believes that a Soviet response may be
forthcoming during talks on civil air routes set
for 8 April.
5 Apr 69
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Hungary: Budapest is increasing its efforts
to export machinery and obtain raw materials by
establishing joint-venture companies in less-de-
veloped countries.
A Hungarian delegation recently concluded a
preliminary agreement with Chile that calls for the
formation of a joint company to produce cable from
copper purchased from several small Chilean mines.
Chile is to receive machinery, technical assist-
ance, and an assured market for the company's out-
put in Hungary and other East European countries.
The East European countries have participated
in at least 30 joint ventures in the less-developed
countries. In addition to providing development
capital, these ventures have proven attractive in
opening new export markets in Communist countries.
5 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Japan Communist China: Negotiators have
finally concluded a one-year extension of the un-
official Memorandum Trade Agreement, the only for-
mal trade arrangement between the two countries.
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The economic significance of the Memorandum
Trade Agreement has declined in recent years.
Press reports indicate that, the new agreement
calls for $70 million in two-way trade. This
would be a decline of about 35 percent from the
$110 million of trade achieved under last year's
agreement
Other Japanese traders working outside the
Memorandum Trade Agreement accounted for 80 per-
cent of Sino-Japanese trade last year. They ex-
pect that their trade with China will increase in
1969, and that total trade this year probably will
not fall below the 1968 level of $550 million.
Japanese firms are optimistic that their sales,
especially of fertilizer, machinery, and steel,
at the u comin Canton fair will reach all-time
highs.
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Equatorial Guinea: The evacuation of Spanish
civilians and troops, which is to be completed to-
day, is likely to be followed by further internal
disorder.
There has been a continuing exodus of Spanish
residents since anti-Spanish incidents flared in
late February, and fewer than 400 civilians are ex-
pected to remain after the Spanish forces have left.
The effects of the Spanish departure have already
been evident on most aspects of daily life; further
disruption, if not a complete breakdown of most es-
sential services, is expected. Government opera-
tions will be particularly hard hit by the loss of
virtually all technical assistance personnel.
The inexperienced government of President
Macias is ill-equipped to cope with the disloca-
tion. Its problems will probably be compounded by
domestic unrest: as large numbers of unemployed join
the ranks of foot-loose students whose schools have
already closed,
Macias is opposed by several political and
ethnic factions, any one of which might seize the
opportunity to attempt a coup. The local security
forces, whose loyalty to the President is uncertain,
would be unable to control any major disturbances
which might develop,
The government has thus far done little to
avert the impending chaos. It apparently has not
replied to a Spanish offer of financial assistance,
but it has solicited technical assistance from the
UN and other international organizations, several
of which are already attemptin to supply personnel
to maintain vital services.
5 Apr 69
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Ethiopia: The Eritrean Liberation Front yes-
terday carried out a well-coordinated series of at-
tacks on vital installations in the Asmara area.
Saboteurs succeeded in damaging an electric
power generating plant as well as a transformer
station, preventing emergency power from reaching
the city. The city's main water pumping station
was also damaged. Asmara was without electricity
for about 12 hours and is expected to be without
water for a day or so. Kagnew, the US installation
at Asmara, has imposed rationing inasmuch as it de-
pends on Asmara for most of its water.
These attacks, along with the ambush of three
fuel tank trucks in early March, may indicate a
change of strategy by the Front, which had been un-
able to mount any significant operations since mid-
1967. The attacks were carried out with a high de-
gree of sophistication, and may also indicate that
some of the insurgents who have been abroad for
guerrilla and sabotage training have returned and
are now operating in the field with Front units.
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Ethiopia: New student disturbances on the
campus of Haile Selassie I University in Addis
Ababa will probably result in the closing of the
university this weekend for an indefinite period.
The latest incident in the government's war
of nerves with students developed on 3 April from
a demonstration protesting the continued detention
of radical student leaders. Students clashed with
army troops guarding the campus, and several hun-
dred were arrested and trucked to a detention camp
outside the city. Some secondary school pupils
were also detained.
Although the government succeeded in frustrat-
ing demonstrations the students had planned for
early March, the student body at the university
has remained restive, in contrast with previous
years when calm generally followed the spring dis-
turbances. Most students have reregistered to
avoid government penalties, but many have boycotted
classes and have prevented the university from re-
suming its normal level of activity. The unrest
has kept Addis Ababa's secondary schools stirred
up and they have now been shut down.
The new outbreak clearly represents a setback
for the government in its efforts to reach some ac-
commodation with the students and to keep the schools
in the capital functioning. The government earlier
had decided to keep the university open and to deal
leniently with all but the hard-core radicals. Now,
however, the authorities have apparently decided
that unless there is some last-minute change of
attitude by the students--which seems unlikely--
the university will close down indefinitely.
5 Apr 69 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Rumania-USSR: TASS announced yesterday that
Foreign Minister Manescu will arrive in Moscow on
7 April to begin an official visit. This kind of
advance announcement from Moscow is unusual and
probably was intended to indicate that no urgency
is to be attached to the visit. Manescu probably
will take up such outstanding bilateral matters as'
the final revisions to the Rumanian=Soviet mutual
assistance pact, which formally expired in February
1968. r- -1
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