CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012900120001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 18, 1969
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
State Dept. review completed
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18 January 1969
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No. 0016/69
18 January 1969
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR - West Germany - Berlin: Soviet protests
against Bonn's plan to hold presidential elections
in Berlin are growing stronger. (Page 2)
UK-Rhodesia: Wilson has a somewhat freer hand to
negotiate with Salisbury. (Page 3)
Western Europe: The British, Germans, and Dutch
hope jointly to produce enriched uranium. (Page 4)
USSR-France: Moscow and Paris continue color tele-
vi.sion cooperation. (Page 5)
Belgium: The bitter linguistic dispute resumes.
(Page 7)
Brazil: The purge of opposition elements seems
likely to be continued. (Page 8)
CEMA: Economists recommend gradual integration of
memEer states' economies. (Page 9)
Zambia: Military training agreement with the UK
terminated. (Page 10)
Morocco-Algeria: Boumediene's visit to Morocco
has failed to resolve basic issues. (Page 11)
Spain-USSR: Fishing vessels (Page 12)
Bolivia: Presidential succession (Page 13)
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Vietnam: Communist propagandists are taking
a tough 1 ne on the eve of the new talks in Paris.
They are bearing down especially hard on the
status of the National Liberation Front. A lead
item in North Vietnam's party daily yesterday fo-
cused on this'issue, and a Front spokesman made the
same point in Paris. The latter said the Communists
would stress "recognition" of the Front and US troop
withdrawals when the substantive talks finally get
under way.
In South Vietnam, the Communists still seem
bent on stepping up the pace of their military ac-
tivity around Saigon and in the provinces to the
south of the capital. Allied countermeasures are
impeding enemy troop movements and timetables, how-
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USSR - West Germany - Berlin: Soviet protests
against Bonn's plan to elect its next federal pres-
ident on 5 March in West Berlin are, as expected,
growing somewhat stronger as the date draws closer.
Last week, the Soviet ambassador in Bonn told
Foreign Minister Brandt that the plan was "provoca-
tive" and ignored Soviet warnings and "restraint."
He said it would "aggravate relations" between Bonn
and Moscow. This week the Soviet envoy in East
Berlin asked the British ambassador to Bonn to in-
tercede with Brandt and warn him that the election
might provoke Soviet reprisals.
Moscow has been trying to create differences
between West Germany and the Allies over this is-
sue, but as yet has given no sign that it has de-
cided on its own ultimate course of act
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UK-Rhodesia: Prime Minister Wilson now has a
somewhat freer hand to negotiate with the Smith re-
gime but he is also committed more firmly than be-
fore to make sure that any settlement is acceptable
to black as well as white Rhodesians.
Wilson now finds himself in this position after
the lengthy discussion of the Rhodesian issue at
the Commonwealth prime ministers' conference. At
the last Commonwealth conference, in September 1966,
London took the official line that it would not
grant independence to Rhodesia until majority rule
prevailed there. Although London later explored
various other proposals with Salisbury, Wilson paid
lip service to this formula again this week. He
also made it clear that London will be content to
seek a settlement short of "no independence before
majority rule," but promised, in the event of suc-
cess, to ask the Commonwealth to release him from
the original formula.
Counterbalancing this greater diplomatic free-
dom, the British joined the other Commonwealth coun-
tries in declaring that the acceptability of any
settlement to the whole Rhodesian people would
have to be tested in a convincing manner. The
conferees agreed that a referendum might be nec-
essary.
At the moment, however, there are no new in-
dications that Wilson can come to terms with Ian
Smith.
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Western Europe: The British, Germans, and
Dutch are pressing ahead with plans for joint pro-
duction of enriched uranium by the gas ultracen-
trifuge method, a potentially less expensive proc-
ess than gaseous diffusion.
All three have the political will to make the
project succeed, but a high Dutch official has
commented that the further they all go in trying
to work out cooperation, the more difficult progress
seems to become. The three countries will meet on
20 January to try to work out a draft of a formal
treaty to ensure the application of nuclear safe-
guards and national security standards on informa-
tion to be exchanged. Serious differences in na-
tional security procedures may be difficult to
overcome, however.
Integration may also be hampered by the wide
differences in the extent to which each has pro-
gressed in its own ultracentrifuge research.
The Dutch official noted that the UK is press-
ing for the earliest possible construction of a
large-scale enrichment plant to help fill the need
in the near future for enriched uranium. The Dutch,
on the other hand, want to proceed more slowly be-
cause of the risks of failure without adequate
preliminary, small-scale testing.
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USSR-France: Moscow and Paris are continuing
to cooperate in the field of color television after
settling recent differences over marketing rights
and production.
The French have won the exclusive right to
sell the joint Franco-Soviet SECAM process in the
free world and in Eastern Europe, and the Soviets
have retained joint ownership only within the USSR.
Under an earlier agreement to produce the
French-designed TV tube in the USSR, annual pro-
duction is projected at about 30,000 tubes by 1971.
In an apparent attempt to offset the uncertainties
of this agreement, the USSR last year purchased a
US plant for the production of shadow masks for
color TV tubes. Implementation of the US process
should enable the Soviets to begin the mass pro-
duction of at least 200,000 color TV sets by 1970.
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Brugge
WEST-
VLAANDEREN
ANTWERPEN
-Antwerp 1 ? ~
Linguistic frontier
Province boundary
Remaining bilingual
area
Fhent`L eA ., N Di --# RJ?S LIMBURG
Liege.
I I F C9 F
W A L L O N I A
French-speaking
FRANCE
Belgian Linguistic Problem
Endangers Government Coalition
FEDERAL
German-
speaking
REPUBLIC
X
GERMANY
( German-\
speaking '?-,
LUXEMBOURG
Arlon t
X* \ Luxembourg
0
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Belgium: The bitter linguistic dispute threat-
ens to put the shaky Social Christian - Socialist
coalition to its greatest test since it came to
power last summer.
Opposition Liberals and the small nationalist
parties decided this week to boycott parliamentary
consideration of the coalition's program to deal
with the persistent linguistic dispute. The coa-
lition, after laborious effort, proposed constitu-
tional amendments to promote cultural autonomy of
the French- and Flemish-speaking communities and
to give them a greater voice in economic policy-
making. The decision of the Liberals and nation-
alists to boycott consideration of these measures
will deny the government the needed quorum in par-
liament. All the parties are so divided on the
program, however, that the measures would probably
not receive the necessary two-thirds approval even
if a vote were possible.
The immediate aim of the Liberals' boycott
appears to be to force the coalition to let them
help redraft the program, but the coalition So-
cialists and some of their Social Christian coa-
lition partners have adamantly opposed the par-
ticipation of the business-oriented Liberals.
Although the linguistic bills are the core of
the coalition's program, there is some question
whether the program's failure would bring down the
government. Many leaders in all the parties,
fearing the prospect of another national election
as inconclusive as the election last March, may
not want a vote of confidence on this issue.
Other leaders also reportedly believe the coali-
tion would not need to regard a defeat as a vote
of no confidence, because constitutional reform
is properly a parliamentary. not a government, re-
sponsibility. (Map)
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Brazil: The government's purge of opposition
elements seems likely to be continued soon, as
hard-liners push ahead with their "sanitation" cam-
paign.
The 43 persons who this week lost their jobs--
and some their political rights--included not only
respected opposition congressmen but also members
of the progovernment party. In general their crime
seems to have been too vocal criticism.
For the first time the purge was extended to
the judiciary. Three supreme court justices and a
member of the military tribunal were summarily re-
tired. The supreme court justices involved were
liberals appointed by former presidents Goulart
and Kubitschek; many military officers have been
annoyed by court decisions that hampered the pros-
ecution of "known Communists."
The government's latest moves are evidence of
determination to purge not only corrupt and sub-
versive opponents but honest critics as well.
Costa e Silva and many of his top advisers have
favored moderation, but the hard-liners--especially
a group of noncabinet members known as "the gen-
erals"--are callin the tune.
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CEMA: The recent symposium of CEMA economists
in Warsaw, held without Rumanian participation, re-
portedly concluded that integration of the member
states' economies should proceed gradually over the
next five years.
Supranational planning for the socialist com-
munity was regarded as unjustified. The meeting
recommended instead the establishment of additional
"voluntary" links among the CEMA member states, es-
pecially in industrial production and research.
The Polish economists also called for a price
system that would lead to intra-CEMA currency con-
vertibility to promote multilateralism in trade, a
long-standing goal of CEMA.
Reports of the symposium suggest that an East
European consensus on a relatively loose economic
association is evolving. Poland, the most active
proponent of integration within CEMA, now appears
to be scaling down some of its more extreme pro-
posals to accommodate its less enthusiastic East
European neighbors.
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Zambia: Zambia's decision to terminate its mil-
itary training agreement with the UK highlights a
gradual reorganization and expansion of Zambia's
defense forces.
On 31 December Zambia gave the required one
year's notice to end the program under which the
British military instructors have served in opera-
tional positions in the Zambian Army and Air Force.
Zambia has long felt uneasy about control by the
personnel of a foreign state over the use of the
army and navy in any hostilities. Apprehension
that the British Government would be reluctant to
allow its loan personnel to serve against Rhodesian
or Portuguese forces has heightened Zambian concern.
Exaggerated fears of a military invasion by Rho-
desia last spring led to Zambia's announcement of
the defense buildup. The training of Zambians and
recruitment of personnel on direct contract to the
Zambian Government has now reached the point where
Lusaka decided it can end its reliance on the UK
and still staff a military establishment planned to
be almost doubled by 1972.
Zambia is also seeking more sophisticated hard-
ware. Efforts to purchase defensive missiles
from Britain have been stalled for a variety of
technical and political reasons. Long negotiations
for helicopters and jet trainers appear near frui-
tion, however with Ital the most probable supplier.
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Morocco-Algeria: The six-day visit of Alger-
ian Premier Boumediene to Morocco climaxed six months
of effort to improve relations. It apparently did
not, however, alleviate the underlying mutual sus-
picion and hostility of the countries' leaders or
resolve the basic issue of Morocco's territorial
claims.
The terms of the treaty of solidarity and coop-
eration concluded during the visit are probably broad
enough to permit substantial low-level cooperation
in social and economic spheres. Moreover, by sign-
ing the final communique which referred to "an end
to the arms race," the Algerians for the first time
have publicly admitted the danger of an arms race.
This represents a considerable concession to King
Hassan's initiative in 1967 for talks on arms levels
in the Maghreb.
Hassan may have welcomed as a demonstration of
the difficulties in settling the sensitive border
question the discordant note struck by the Moroccan
Istiglal Party when it reiterated its broad terri-
torial demands at the time of Boumediene's arrival.
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NOTES
Spain-USSR: Madrid is trying to persuade
Moscow to divert to Spanish ports the Soviet ships
and fishin vessels which now call at Gibraltar
is is the latest example of Spain's maneuvers to
isolate Gibraltar and impair its economy in order
to pressure London to return the Rock to Spain.
The Spaniards made the proposal to the Soviets in
London last November and are continuing discussions
this month in Madrid.
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(continued)
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Bolivia: President Barrientos has said that
he will not run for the presidency in June 1970
and is encouraging support for the candidacy of
army commander in chief General Ovandn_
Apparently foresee-
g tnat an attempt on his part to run for re-elec-
tion could prompt a military coup, Barrientos, for
now at least, has decided to leave office after
his present term and support 07al do as his succes-
sor.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 13
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