CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 29, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A01260SC601
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
50
29 November 1968
Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0
Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/'Y9-':CePAk P79TO0975AO12600100001-0
No. 0326/68
29 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Pakistan: Antigovernment disturbances present the
government with its most open challenge in a decade.
(Page 2)
West Germany - NPT: Bonn has again aired its un-
certainties about the treaty. (Page 3)
Panama: Small groups of pro-Arias insurgents have
entered western Panama. (Page 5)
Chile: Serious drought will intensify the govern-
ment's problems. (Page 7)
Rumania - Warsaw Pact: High-level meeting (Page 8)
Czechoslovakia: Refinery destroyed (Page 8)
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/068 N MP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/f1 -DP79T00975A012600100001-0
Tonle
\ Sup
L %A
Saravane
LAOS
Ca Mau
s iv CORPS
13ARLAC
Ban Me 'HANH(;'
QuANG jNha Trang
jw
^tlC ~~- -
MILES
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/06/$E I 1 P79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 20039/'11`:IA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0
C Vietnam: Sharp clashes occurred in western III
Corps as allied troops on sweep operations encountered
several enemy battalions.
On 27 November and again the next day, allied
units discovered and engaged Communist forces around
Loc Ninh in Binh Long Province. Thus far, some 129
enemy troops have been reported killed in these battles.
In Tay Ninh Province, several engagements occurred on
27 and 28 November. Thus far, well over 200 Commu-
nists have been reported killed in the fighting.
Saigon's announcement of the resignation of In-
formation Minister Thien may be merely the first of
several cabinet changes. Thien's departure appears
to have resulted from a combination of factors, par-
ticularly President Thieu's loss of confidence in
him as the official spokesman for the government fol-
lowing his handling of an alleged coup attempt in
early October. His role as a vocal critic of US pol-
icy in connection with the bombing halt and the Paris
talks may also have made him a convenient scapegoat
once an accord was reached.
Rumors of other cabinet changes have been cir-
culating for some time. The most often mentioned
candidate to follow Thien is Foreign Minister Tran
Chanh Thanh.
29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/C$B P I DP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/(1C }FZDP79T00975A012600100001-0
Pakistan: Persistent antigovernment disturbances
in West Pakistan have presented the government with
its most open challenge in a decade.
The violence, which began early this month, has
so far been confined largely to students, intellec-
tuals, and other disaffected elements of the popula-
tion. The police, backed up if necessary by the
army, presumably can be expected to re-establish an
uneasy peace after each outbreak, but the causes of
unrest remain and disorder will probably continue--
particularly with the approach of elections in Sep-
tember 1969.
The campaign of former air force chief Asghar
Khan, who announced his entry into politics last
week, is moving into high dear. On 26 November,
he received a tumultuous welcome in Peshawar and,
despite his efforts to prevent disorders, rioting
followed. In the ensuing melee, the USIS library
was invaded and some books and equipment were de-
stroyed. This was the first attack on a US installa-
tion during the current series of disorders.
Ayub's opponents, meanwhile, have received en-
couragement from a former chief justice of the East
Pakistan High Court, who announced his entry into
opposition politics and endorsed Asghar's recent.
antigovernment charges. This could be a significant
breakthrough for those who seek to create a coalition
of opposition elements from both wings of the country
to contest next year's elections.
29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2000pf(1A cJA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0%Yl YA DP79T00975A012600100001-0
West Germany - NPT: London's ratification of
the nonproliferation treaty (NPT) has caused Bonn
again to air its uncertainties over the subject.
Bonn believes that the Czechoslovak crisis has
reaffirmed that the NPT must allow the Europeans the
possibility of moving toward the creation of a Euro-
pean nuclear force without necessarily waiting for
full European political union. The Germans want
London's assurances that this so-called "European
option" will be available under the treaty. They
also would like reassurance that ratification of the
treaty will not alter NATO strategy, and that they
could back out of the treaty if NATO were dissolved.
The British position is still that no European
nuclear force is possible short of its formation under
a fully federated European state. Thus, this issue,
which has been dormant for several months, is likely
to remain a major point of contention.
Bonn had hoped that the invasion of Czechoslo-
vakia would lead all the Western powers to defer
ratifying the treaty. The Germans had intended to
postpone action themselves, possibly until after the
parliamentary elections next fall, but the British
action may now bring the issue to the fore.
29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0fgFC j-1PP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/1'3 R9flF79T00975A012600100001-0
cos
'>uiCA
Urena
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/111CCIA- DP79T00975A012600100001-0
I Panama: Small groups of exile supporters of
ousted president Arnulfo Arias have crossed the
Costa Rican border into western Panama, where they
have been joined by local dissidents.
as many as
2OU pro-Arias insurgents may be involved. Inhabitants
of this mountainous area are strongly antimilitary,
and their support for the infiltrators could create
a long-term problem for the military government in
Panama City..
Arias and his entourage in the US, meanwhile,
are continuing to use every opportunity to gain the
sympathy of influential US citizens, including govern-
ment officials. Besides seeking support for an at-
tempt to re-establish himself in power, Arias has
made a pitch for an economic squeeze on the junta and
has distorted facts to imply that it is Communist-
dominated.
Actually, no Communists have been put in key
positions in the provisional government, but Arias'
followers have sought Communist support for a "guer-
rilla" movement and antijunta action in Panama City,
The only.organiza-
tion capable of disrupting public order, however,
would be the Communist-led student federation, which
has so far refused to go into the streets against
the junta. F7 I
29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/0WQl DP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : O F91b0975A012600100001-0
Chileans Suffer Worst Drought in 44 Years
25X1
IMPORTANCE OF THE
DROUGHT AREA
IN 1965, THIS AREA ACCOUNTED FOR:
45 percent of the cultivated and fallow land
54 percent of the sown area
86 percent of the irrigated area
31 percent of the improved pasture
76 percent of the orchards and vineyards
52 percent of production of wheat
82 percent of production of barley
98 percent of production of corn
100 percent of production of rice
More than 50 percent of production of vegetables
More than 75 percent of production of fruit
34 percent of the cattle
25 percent of the sheep
44 percent of the hogs
39 percent of production of dairy products
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0(5dC&kWDP79T00975A012600100001-0
Chile: The worst drought in 44 years will inten-
sify the country's serious economic problems and may
increase the political difficulties of the Christian
Democratic Party.
The drought probably will cut agriculture produc-
tion next year by 20 to 30 percent and force a reduc-
tion in the output of agricultural processing indus-
tries. Other industries will be adversely affected
by reduced hydroelectric power supplies. Together,
these may reduce gross domestic product per capita
in 1969 by as much as ten percent. The drought also
will exacerbate Chile's chronic inflation and balance--
of-payments problems as well as raise unemployment
significantly.
Thus far, the Christian Democratic government
of Eduardo Frei has not announced any changes in its
programs to cope with the consequences of the drought.
Next year's budget allocates to drought relief only
the proceeds expected from sales of additional ship-
ments of surplus US agricultural products. Available
evidence suggests that Frei intends to rely on the US
to assume practically the entire burden of immediate
drought relief.
The drought may hurt the Christian Democrats in
the elections of 1969-70, unless it can be used suc-
cessfully as a scapegoat for economic shortcomings.
The impact of the drought probably will be at its
peak by March 1969, when congressional elections are
scheduled.
29 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
Approved For Release 2003/OJ t DP79T00975A012600100001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0",'
U,; 1"=FDP79T00975A012600100001-0
Rumania Warsaw Pact: The annual meeting of
high-level Warsaw Pact officers, in session at
Bucharest since 26 November, is slated to end today.
If a final communique is issued, it may shed new
light on matters relating to Rumania's role in pact
affairs, such as holding joint maneuvers on Rumanian
soil next year, increasing the size of its army, and
standardizing military supply sources. The Rumanian
leadership and press have made no comment on the
meeting, but some Rumanian diplomats and officials
are displaying concern about Soviet intentions.
,,Czechoslovakia: An explosion and fire are re-
ported to have destroyed most of the equipment at
Czechoslovakia's largest petroleum refinery, the
Slovnaft works at Bratislava. This refinery pro-
duces most of Czechoslovakia's refined petroleum
products. Restoration of the refinery will require
at least several months, during which time alternate
sources of supply--probably the USSR--must be found.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/0S6L11 C EIRDP79T00975A012600100001-0
 SecE roved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975A012600100001-0
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/06/11 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO12600100001-0