CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012500070001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 12, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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No. 0311/68
12 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia-USSR: Dubcek leadership faces seri-
ous problems while preparing for central committee
plenum. (Page 2)
Poland: Tension and factional maneuvering highlight
opening day of party congress. (Page 4)
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Okinawa: Leftist opposition candidate elected chief
executive. (Page 8)
Algeria-Morocco: Boumediene visit (Page 9)
Malaysia: Police sweep (Page 9)
Pakistan: Disturbances (Page 9)
USSR: Tank missiles (Page 10)
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C South Vietnam: President Thieu's tough line on
negotiations still enjoys widespread support, but a
few cracks have begun to appear.
Thieu's refusal to join the Paris talks has won
substantial backing in the countryside, particularly
amon military officers and provincial officials.
IThieu's
obduracy has established his anti-Communist creden-
tials for the first time and he is now in a position
to change course and agree to talk with the Liberation
Front without being accused of selling out the country
to the Communists.
Not everyone is supporting Thieu's stand on the
talks, however. A growing number of responsible
South Vietnamese officials have described Thieu's
formulation of 8 November as "unrealistic" and argue
that the time has come for Thieu to compromise.
The pace of ground fighting picked up through-
out South Vietnam after 9 November, but Communist-
initiated action was generally limited to harassing
shellings.
Communist artillerymen launched numerous attacks
against allied military positions and installations
throughout the country over the weekend. These
barrages included at least four attacks launched
from within the Demilitarized Zone on allied positions
in northern Quang Tri Province. More than 100 artil-
lery, rocket, and mortar rounds were fired from en-
emy positions in the southern section of the Zone,
resulting in American casualties of five killed and
46 wounded. Allied counteraction included tactical
air strikes and some 204 rounds of artillery fire
against the enemy firing positions. 17
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Czechoslovakia-USSR: Dubcek and other top
Czechoslovak leaders are faced with serious prob-
lems as they prepare for the central committee
plenum on 14 November.
Party Secretary Zdenek Mlynar, who reportedly
has submitted his resignation rather than give in
to Soviet demands, has told mass media officials
that the plenum will result in "basic cadre changes"
and "disillusionment for the nation." Mlynar's re-
marks suggest that Dubcek may comply with Soviet
insistence that more pro-Soviet conservatives be
elevated to the party leadership. The hard liners,
who still are in the minority, may now feel that
there is enough dissension within the party to is-
sue--with Soviet support--a broad challenge to Dub-
cek at the plenum.
Moscow's attitude toward the Dubcek leadership
appears to have toughened. Special Soviet emissary
to Prague Kuznetsov is said to have compiled a de-
tailed criticism of the activities of the Czechoslo-
vak mass media in September and October. [As a re-
sult, Reporter, the Czechoslovak equivalent of Time
magazine, has been suspended for one month, and
several outspoken Communist Party periodicals al-
legedly will be sharply restricted or silenced com-
pletely. According to an unconfirmed press report,
the suspension of Politka, a party central committee
publication, will be announced today. J
The Russians are disturbed by Dubcek's failure
to terminate effectively the anti-Soviet demonstra-
tions throughout the country during the last two
weeks, as well as his inability to guarantee that
such manifestations of anti-Soviet sentiment will
not take place in the future. Prague students, en-
couraged by the restraint shown thus far by police
and military forces during the disturbances, have
called for a student strike on 17 November. Premier
Cernik, however, yesterday warned the students that]
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C"drastic steps" which "might end in tragedy" will
have to be taken against further demonstrations.
Cernik may fear that Soviet troops might take mat-
ters in their own hands if the students are not kept
under control by the Czechoslovak security forces. J
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I Poland: The party congress opened yesterday
amid public tension, last-minute factional maneu-
vering, and pleas for new action to overcome in-
ternational Communist disunity.
No public disturbances have occurred, but the
government is clearly jumpy because the party con-
clave is taking place shortly after anti-Soviet
student demonstrations in Prague. Polish students,
who have been quiet following the disorders last
March, reportedly have been warned against any
public protests. Additional police patrols have
been reported, and surveillance of Westerners has
been increased.
A total of 37 foreign parties sent representa-
tives to the congress. Soviet party boss Brezhnev,
East Germany's Ulbricht, and Bulgaria's Zhivkov are
attending, leaving Hungarian party boss Kadar the
only head of a Warsaw Pact country participating in
the invasion of Czechoslovakia to absent himself
from the Polish congress. This suggests that he
wishes to dissociate himself from the conclave's
expected endorsement of the Warsaw Pact action.
The Yugoslav party, which had been one of the se-
verest critics of the invasion, reportedly was not
invited. The Rumanian and Czechoslovak parties
are represented by lesser-ranking officials.
Available portions of Polish party leader
Gomulka's day-long keynote speech yesterday reveal
the expected stress on "revisionism" as the main in-
ternational as well as domestic danger. Gomulka re-
peated his familiar calls for open interparty dis-
cussions to overcome the "difficult and complex
situation" of the international Communist movement,
and pleaded for unity.
There are rumors that rump talks between Moscow
and its most loyal allies may take place during the
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congress. The Soviets could also use the occasion
to lobby for support among nonruling parties for an
early international Communist summit.
Domestically, the congress shows early signs
of sanctioning a new balance of power between Go-
mulka's old guard and young, hard-line party ele-
ments. A last-minute central committee plenum on
9 November expelled from its ranks two members who
had long been under hard-line attack for their re-
visionist stand and their alleged role in the stu-
dent riots in March. At least one third of the
85-member central committee probably will be re-
placed with less fanfare by hard-line candidates
at the congress. Gomulka's position as party
boss appears secure, but the new central committee
to be elected at the conclave will bring ever in-
creasing pressure on him by a rising hard-line gen-
eration who intend to share his once complete con-
trol of the party. F_ j
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Okinawa: The first popular election for chief
executive has been won by the leftist opposition's
politically inexperienced candidate.
Chobyo Yara, 65, received an impressive 50 per-
cent of the popular vote compared with 45 percent
for his conservative opponent from the Okinawa Lib-
eral Democratic Party (OLDP). Yara's legislative
proposals, however, will be tempered by the neces-
sity to deal with a lawmaking body in which the
conservative OLDP has retained its majority.
Yara, a newcomer to politics, is currently the
chairman of the leftist-oriented and widely influ-
ential Okinawa Teachers' Association. Despite his
campaign calls for a rapid return of the Ryukyus to
Japanese administration, US officials in Okinawa,
who have met with him privately, have been impressed
with his moderate approach to US-Okinawa issues.
Yara is widely respected in Okinawa as a leader in
his own right.
Because Yara has no political affiliation of
his own, he will have to depend on elements of the
leftist tripartite coalition in building his power
base. If he aligns himself with the moderate Oki-
nawa Socialist Masses Party as he indicated last
July, it is unlikely that his administration will
jeopardize US interests with regard to mob control
in the vicinity of US bases and the careful manage-
ment of the delicate reversion issue. If he is
forced to draw support from the radical Socialists
or Communists, however, his ability to maintain
freedom of action will become less predictable.
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Algeria-Morocco: Premier Boumediene's visit to
Morocco will occur early in January, according to an
Algerian press announcement. Earlier reports had in-
dicated that Boumediene would go to Rabat in mid-
November. The postponement, following on the heels
of a quick trip to Rabat by several high-level Alger-
ian officials who conferred with King Hassan and
other Moroccan officials, suggests that some snag has
developed in preparations for the Boumediene-Hassan
talks.
Malaysia: A major police sweep in which 137
known or suspected Communists have been arrested thus
far in West Malaysia may be partially intended to
pave the way for unobstructed national elections this
spring. Periodic large-scale sweeps--this is the
sixth in two years--are designed to remove militant
leaders from the Communist movement and to preclude
their developing firm control of several factionalized
leftist organizations. As the result of government
action, West Malaysia's small Communist movement
remains relatively in ective despite a trend toward
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Pakistan: Rawalpindi and other major cities in
West Pakistan appear to be returning to normal fol-
lowing recent antigovernment disorders, although new
outbreaks of student unrest are possible. The govern-
ment's use of the army to assist the police, when
the latter were unable to control the demonstrators,
quickly ended the rioting in two cities including
the national capital, Rawalpindi. The reported at-
tempt on President Ayub's life in Peshawar on Sunday
resulted in no casualties and may have been merely
an effort by a dissident student to disrupt the
meeting at which Ayub was to speak.
(continued)
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USSR: The Soviets may be equipping their newest
tanks w th antitank guided missiles. What appear to
be launchers for these missiles were observed recently
on several Soviet T-62 tanks in East Germany. The
tanks had canvas-covered metal frames toward the
rear of the turret. The frames were large enough to
hold two or three Sagger antitank guided missiles.
Addition of these missiles to the T-62's armament
will increase its antitank capability to about 2,750
meters compared with the 1,500-meter effective ran e
of the tank's 115-mm. main gun.
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