CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012500020001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 5, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
5o
State Department review completed 5 November 1968
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No. 0305/68
5 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 3)
Security situation fragile. (Page 5)
Korea: South Korean forces reacted sharply to North
Korean sea infiltrations. (Page 7)
Communist China: Central committee plenum takes sig-
nificant step toward ending Cultural Revolution. (Page
Panama: Two colonels hold power. (Page 10)
8)
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USSR: Price increases probably accounted for some of
the rise in defense and science budgets. (Page 12)
UN-Disarmament: General Assembly may act to perpetuate
Conference of Nonnuclear Countries. (Page 13)
India: Tribal insurgency continues. (Page 15)
USSR: Helicopter carriers
(Page 16)
Guyana: National elections (Page 16)
ECLA (Page 17)
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Vietnam:
South Vietnams No significant ground actions
were reported on-7-4 November.
President Thieu is generally discouraging street
demonstrations; he believes that the government does
not need to whip up additional popular support now
for its position opposing talks with National Lib-
eration Front representatives. The Catholic Greater
Solidarity Force nevertheless was given permis-
sion to hold a large meeting on 5 November and an es-
.timated 3,000 paraded past the US Embassy en route
to the gathering. Permission was also given for a
delegation to go to Independence Palace with a state-
ment of support for the government. The Saigon gov-
ernment built a barricade in front of the US Embassy,
probably in order to provide an atmosphere of tension
for the march.
The Viet Cong probably will exploit South Viet-
namese concerns about the bombing halt and the Paris
negotiations by further accelerating political action
in the countryside. The Viet Cong have been exert-
ing new efforts for some months to strengthen their
local organizations, to terrorize local officials,
and to persuade civilian and military personnel to
defect. More recently, the Viet Cong have begun to
take the line that peace is not far off and that now
is the time to join the victorious side in order to
avoid punishment for working against the revolution.
Some officials in the provinces have suggested that
a bombing halt would probably precede an accommoda-
tion with the Viet Cong and an eventual Communist
take-over, and they may now be more vulnerable to
the new Communist line.
(continued)
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[There are also some indications that the Com-
munists are trying to give a number of cadre legal
status with a view to operations after a cease-fire.
Some of the large number of Communists defecting in
IV Corps are reportedly coming over in order to be in
position for future political activity in government-
controlled areas.
the Viet Cong are stepping up
efforts to pene government agencies, including
the National Police.
North Vietnam: The Vietnamese Communists are
pressing the propaganda advantage resulting from Sai-
gon's refusal to join the Paris talks.
Madame Binh, the head of the newly arrived Lib-
eration Front delegation in Paris, says that she is
ready to attend Wednesday's meeting although Saigon
is not. The Hanoi party daily claimed on 4 November
that the Front is fully competent to settle all the
problems of South Vietnam, and it predicted that the
"Thieu-K -Huon " clique would soon be overthrown.
5 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Jordan: The security situation in Amman is in-
creasingly fragile as authorities struggle to curtail
terrorist activities in the capital.
The King has moved cautiously in his relations
with the terrorists. Most of the major groups have
been relatively cooperative with the government--at
least while in Amman--but on 2 November a splinter
terrorist organization marched on the US Embassy.
This provoked a major disturbance throughout the city,
where rumors had apparently been spreading that the
government was cracking down on all terrorist organi-
zations.
The security authorities managed on 3 November
to arrest the larger part of the organization which
had started the trouble. Some members. resisted,
however, and shooting incidents between terrorists
and the authorities occurred in widespread areas of
Amman. At least seven persons were killed and ap-
proximately 100 wounded.
King Husayn made a radiobroadcast yesterday to
describe the government's attitude toward the terror-
ist organizations. He stressed that his government's
move had been against only the one offending terror-
ist gang, but the other organizations are doubtless
apprehensive that his next moves may be directed
against them. Major organizations such as Fatah are
apparently still cooperating with the authorities.,
Fatah members have been instructed by their organi-
zation to maintain calm and not to carry arms while
in Amman.
Further conflict, however, is inevitable. Al-
though the King would appear to have won for the
moment, the terrorists are well aware that public
sympathy for their cause is increasing and they
almost certainly will challenge him if he tries to
crack down on major groups.
5 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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North Koreans Infiltrate South Korea by Sea
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Korea: South Korean forces have reacted sharply
to two separate North Korean sea infiltrations over
the weekend.
After landing on South Korea's central east
coast, an unknown number of armed intruders, instead
of trying to avoid detection, moved into a village
and detained over 45 civilians for a period before
leaving. No contact has been reported yet between
the intruders and security forces, but South Korean
military authorities estimate a maximum of 60 infil-
trators may be in the area, possibly divided into
several operational and support teams. The govern-
ment has declared military operational control of
the area, mobilized several thousand homeland reserve
personnel, and moved in a marine battalion and a
special forces unit.
A North Korean landing also occurred on the
west coast near Sosan on 1 November. Two infiltra-
tors were killed in a fire fight and a cache of
equipment was uncovered during a sweep of the area.
South Korean reaction forces are greatly im-
proved over last year. Although further incidents
may occur, prospects are good that these forces can
apprehend and neutralize the infiltrated teams.
This year only three other sea infiltration at-
tempts have been confirmed. All apparently involved
small-scale espionage operations. The new landings
occurred at a time of increased tension along the
Demilitarized Zone. In the last two weeks there
has been a rash of ambushes and minings by North
Koreans, and on 3 November a North Korean platoon-
sized force was supported by mortar attacks as it
exchanged fire with South Korean personnel across
the zone.
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Communist China: A significant step toward
closing out the Cu tural Revolution was taken at the
recent plenum of the party central committee.
A communique issued after the plenum--the first
to be convened in more than two years--announced that
the long overdue ninth party congress will be held
at an unspecified date. The congress presumably will
ratify the new provincial government machinery--
staffed mainly by military men and old party cadres--
which has been formed slowly and with much argument
over the past year and a half.
The latest plenum, which lasted from 13 to 31
October, may have been stormy. The communique ap-
pears to be a compromise document with something for
everyone. The document endorsed the current Maoist
economic and administrative policies, which have a
strongly radical thrust. Any congress held in the
near future, however, would probably have a conserv-
ative cast.
The focus of editorial comment in the past month
suggests that a key question is who should be given
power in the reconstructed party apparatus. While
the plenum was going on, treatment of this issue in
Shanghai media--used in the past by Mao Tse-tung and
the Cultural Revolution Group in Peking to air their
views--placed greater emphasis than did Peking news-
papers on the dangers of allowing veteran party
cadres to dominate new governing bodies.
It seems likely that continued arguments over
positions in the power structure will result in pro-
longed delay in convening the party congress, al-
though the plenum communique asserted that conditions
or the meeting have been prepared.
5 Nov 68
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Panama: Recent junta decisions leave little
doubt that the real power rests with two national
guard colonels rather than the provisional adminis-
tration.
The machinations surrounding the decision last
week to reopen newspapers owned by relatives of de-
posed president Arias reflect the dominance of coup
leaders Colonels Torrijos and Martinez. An earlier
decree allowing pro-Arias newspapers to open was
countermanded by Torrijos and Martinez; their per-
sonal choices have now been installed to run the
papers.
Two of the key editorial appointees have Commu-
nist backgrounds. According to available informa-
tion, both are members of the International Organiza-
tion of Journalists, a Communist-front organization.
These appointments probably reflect the influence of
Colonel Torrijos'.younger brother, who is an extreme
leftist.
The junta meanwhile continues to meet little
serious resistance to its rule. An illegal march
by several hundred students in Panama City on 3 No-
vember was quickly broken up by the guard. No seri-
ous disorders are expected during the remainder of
the Independence celebrations which end toda .
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USSR: New Soviet data suggest that price in-
creases, resulting from the wholesale price reform
of mid-1967, probably account for about a third of
the large rise in the defense and science budgets
that Moscow announced for 1968.
The defense category of the Soviet budget was
scheduled to grow by 15 percent this year, a rate
about twice that experienced during 1966 and 1967.
The allocation for science, largely funds for mili-
tary research and development and for space programs,
was to increase by 11 percent.
When the Soviet defense and science budgets
were announced a year ago, Western analysts believed
that the increase of 2.9 billion rubles--the total
for the two budget categories--might reflect price
increases or changes in budget accounting practices
in addition to actual increases in military pro-
grams. No evidence of a change in accounting prac-
tices has been uncovered, but a more precise esti-
mate of the magnitude of the price inflation is now
possible.
The new, higher prices for basic materials and
military hardware purchased by the defense establish-
ment this year are estimated to have boosted expend-
itures by between 700 million and 1.2 billion rubles
over what they would have been in the absence of the
price reform.
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UN-Disarmament: Pressure is developing to have
the General Assembly establish machinery to perpetuate
the Conference of Nonnuclear Countries despite US and
Soviet opposition.
The conference, which was held last September
in Geneva, approved a resolution asking the assembly
to look into the need for convoking similar conferences
in the future. Pakistan is preparing a draft resolu-
tion calling for a permanent committee to carry on
the work of the conference, with emphasis on continuing
the discussion of security problems facing nonnuclear
countries. The Italians and Brazilians are pushing
similar proposals.
A Soviet diplomat at the UN has suggested that
the US and USSR combine efforts to block the non-
nuclears' bid. The Soviets intend to move quickly
to impress Moscow's vigorous objection on several
delegations that are consulting on the Pakistani
resolution. Moscow has repeatedly expressed its fear
that critics of the nonproliferation treaty want an
organization that could be used to weaken the treaty,
to delay its coming into force, and to try to extract
concessions from its sponsors. The Soviets also op-
pose any rival body to the Eighteen-Nation Disarma-
ment Committee (ENDC) which would undermine the dom-
inant role of the US and USSR in disarmament matters.
Pressures to perpetuate the conference are re-
lated to the interest of several nonnuclear states
in expanding the membership of the ENDC. If the
current Nonnuclear Conference initiative is thwarted,
there will be greater insistence on the latter.
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Tribal Insurgency in Eastern India
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India: Tribal insurgency in the remote Mizo hills
of eastern India shows no sign of abating and may even
intensify.
The Indian Army, with some 20,000 troops and
paramilitary units in the area, appears to be making
little progress with its pacification program. The
rebels reportedly control most of the Mizo hills dis-
trict except for the major town of Aijal and the re-
settled "progressive protected villages" strung out
along the Silchar-Aijal-Lungleh road. Even within
the heavily guarded villages, however, there are re-
ports of at least tacit support for the insurgents
and, only
Aija is tully under the control of the security
forces.
The Mizo situation could deteriorate further.
The inspector general of the border security forces,
after a recent tour of the district, concluded that
the situation was "very bad" and expects serious
difficulties in the near future. The Mizo insurgents
reportedly are seeking aid from the Chinese Communists,
who have provided assistance to the Naga rebels far-
ther to the northeast. Unlike the Naga situation,
however, there is no hard evidence of Mizo contact
with the Chinese, although they do receive propaganda
support. Sporadic reports of a Mizo linkup with the
Nagas are also unconfirmed, although the Mizos re-
portedly have been joined by Kuki tribesmen from
neighboring Manipur.
The Indian security forces are able to protect
the major administrative centers in the area against
Mizo-Kuki attacks, but would be able to do very lit-
tle about a sharp increase in harassment raids. The
insurgents move at will through most of the difficult
terrain, apparently with the support of the tribal
population. F7 I
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USSR: The helicopter carrier Moskva and two
SAM-equipped frigates returned to t He Black Sea yes-
terday. The carrier conducted six weeks of antisub-
marine training in the Mediterranean. The Soviets'
other helicopter carrier is expected to leave the
shipyard soon but probably will not be ready for sea
until next fall.
EGuyana: Prime Minister Burnham announced to par-
liament yesterday that national elections will be held
on 16 December. The opposition parties--pro-Communist
Cheddi Jagan's People's Progressive Party and conserv-
ative Peter D'Aguiar's United Force--walked out of par-
liament last week in protest against new electoral reg-
ulations, which Burnham's party voted through regard-
less. Burnham now faces six weeks of increasingly
bitter political attack and possible violence. Burn-
ham and his followers can be elected legally even if
the opposition boycotts the election, but if the op-
position does so Burnham's victory would not look
"democratic." F7 I
(continued)
5 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Chile-UN: Several Chilean Marxists and other
leftists on the staff of the UN Economic Commission
for Latin America (ECLA) and its affiliated planning
institute in Santiago are promoting economic doctrines
and other interests of the Communist-Socialist Pop-
ular Action Front. ECLA's executive secretary, Carlos
Quintana of Mexico, is indifferent to what US Ambas-
sador Korry describes as the pronounced "leftist drift"
of these organizations. Since its founding in 1948,
ECLA has been a major forum for the dissemination of
materials and attacking private enterprise as well as
for nationalistic Latin American views on international
trade. ECLA's officials have not previously been known
to have exploited the organization to further the in-
terests of any political party.
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The United States Intelligence Board on 1 No-
vember 1968 approved the following special national
intelligence estimate:
SNIE 84-1-68 "The Situation in Panama"
5 Nov 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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