CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A012400110001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
STATE review(s) completed.
Secret
50
1 November 1968
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No. 0302/68
1 November 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR: The central committee has formally approved
the leadership's handling of foreign policy. (Page 2)
East Germany - West Berlin: Pankow implicitly
threatens to harass West Berlin next week. (Page 3)
Hungary: Kadar has made a number of public appear-
ances--his first since the Czechoslovak invasion.
(Page 5)
Yugoslavia: A new head of the Serbian Party will try to
lessen Serb resistance to Tito's liberal reforms. (Page 8)
Jordan-Israel: There may be further disorders in
Israeli-occupied Jordan. (Page 9)
Nepal: King Mahendra is taking steps toward recon-
ciliation with his non-Communist opponents. (Page 11)
Ecuador: Student and labor problems are causing dif-
ficulty for President Velasco. (Page 12)
USSR: Antarctic expedition (Page 13)
Jamaica: Clergy warned (Page 13)
Israel-Egypt: Commando strike (Page 13)
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I South Vietnam: Enemy gunners stepped up harass-
ment of urban areas on the eve of Saigon's national
day.
Some twenty rocket rounds hit the capital area
in three separate attacks which began on the evening
of 31 October and continued into the morning hours
of 1 November. The rockets impacted in several areas
around and near the downtown area, killing at least
20 civilians and wounding nearly 40. The bulk of
the casualties occurred when one of the rounds hit
a church while religious services were under way.
Ton Son Nhut airbase, the major
cility in the capital area, was also
least four rockets. Some damage was
control facilities at the field, but
casualties and the base remained operational.
Enemy rocket attacks were also launched during
the same period against Hue in northern South Vietnam
and against My Tho, a key urban center in the Delta.
Some civilian and military casualties were sustained
in these attacks, but physical damage was relatively
light.
There was no major enemy military action re-
ported in the first hours following the President's
announcement of a halt in the bombing of North Viet-
nam. Reports indicated, however, that planning for
future offensive action was continuing during the
allied
air
fa-
struck
by
at
caused
to
air
there
were
no
period preceding the President's statement.
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USSR: The Soviet central committee, meeting for
the first time since the invasion of Czechoslovakia,
has given its formal approval to the leadership's
handling of Soviet foreign policy.
No details of Brezhnev's report on foreign pol-
icy yesterday have been made public and if precedent
holds they probably will not be. The inclusion on
the list of speakers of Deputy Foreign Minister Kuz-
netsov, the Soviet government's special emissary in
Prague, indicates however, that the central committee
was treated to a first-hand briefing on the situation
in Czechoslovakia. Only five other officials spoke
on Brezhnev's foreign policy report and discussion
of the sensitive Czechoslovak issue was apparently
kept to a minimum.
Most of the two-day meeting was devoted to a
report by Brezhnev on the situation in Soviet agri-
culture. In his speech, Brezhnev indicated that the
state had purchased the second largest amount of
grain in history this year, and that the total grain
crop was expected to be close to the record harvest
of 1966. He was strongly critical, however, of all
ministries related to agriculture, claiming that
greater efforts were needed to increase the use of
chemical fertilizers and agricultural machinery and
to implement the land reclamation program. He com-
plained that investment funds earmarked for agri-
culture had been diverted to other sectors.
Brezhnev clearly dominated the plenum proceed-
ings, giving the report on both subjects on the
agenda. His numerous complaints concerning short-
comings in agriculture, however, suggest that the
regime's policy in this sphere, with which he is
personally identified, is not getting full. and ready
implementation and that he may be encountering re-
sistance among other Politburo members on this score.
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East Germany - West Berlin: The East German
Government has implicitly threatened to harass West
Berlin, possibly by interfering with access to the
city, when the West German Christian Democratic Party
(CDU) holds its convention there next week.
In an official statement issued yesterday, Pan-
kow emphatically demanded that the convention not
take place and that "no attempt, be made to misuse
East German access routes to and from West Berlin."
Both the East Germans and the Soviets earlier had
hinted on several occasions that some harassment of
West Berlin would occur during the convention week.
Yesterday's carefully hedged statement, however, is
the first official indication of Pankow's intentions.
Presumably, any measures will be undertaken only by
the East Germans and will not directly effect the
three Western allies.
Despite protests against the meetings of West
German Bundestag committees in West Berlin this week,
the East Germans have not engaged in any serious
harassment. Pankow clearly wishes, however, to por-
tray the CDU convention as much more provocative,
presumably because the committee sessions are held
on a regular basis in the city but no West German
party has held a national convention there since
1952. The major purpose of any East German action
will be intended to strengthen Pankow's contention
that, as a "sovereign state," it can control transit
across its territory.
The Soviets have also criticized the CDU con-
vention. In recent diplomatic and working-level
contacts with the Western allies, however, they have
seemed to be trying to give assurances that Moscow
is aware of allied interests and is carefully con-
trolling the situation.
(continued)
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The West Germans have long been aware of the
possibility of Communist harassment, but have given
no indication they will cancel the CDU convention.
In any event, cancellation of the convention at this
late date in response to the East German protest
would entail an unacceptable loss of restige.
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Hungary: Party chief Kadar has made a number of
public appearances in the past few days, evidently
intending to squelch rumors about his political or
physical health.
Kadar was out of sight from just after the in-
vasion of Czechoslovakia until 16 October, when he
posed for pictures during the opening session of the
National Assembly and jocularly suggested that the
caption read, "radar is resurrected." The US Embassy
in Budapest believes there is considerable evidence
that Kadar was under heavy strain and had been under
the care of physicians. The party boss' unsuccessful
efforts to mediate between Prague and Moscow and the
collapse of his last-minute attempts to avert military
intervention--in which his forces had to participate--
seem to have led to his seclusion.
Even before the invasion, attacks from the USSR
and Eastern Europe on the Czechoslovak reforms con-
cerned Kadar, because Hungary has this year begun a
far-reaching economic and political reform. He feared
that such criticism could have an adverse impact be-
cause it would aid conservative elements in the Hun-
garian party who are opposed to reform.
Kadar allowed others in the leadership to ex-
plain Hungary's involvement in the intervention.
This led to so much speculation about the country's
future, however, that Kadar apparently thought the
time had come to reassure the public that events in
Czechoslovakia would not result in any turning back
of the clock in Hungary. There are reports that Kadar
has been in Moscow to clear this position.
There still may be some repercussions from the
invasion, however. Top leaders, including the de-
fense and foreign ministers, may have to pay for
their alleged opposition to Hungary's participation
in the invasion. There may already have been some
shifts, as yet unannounced, in the party's top lev-
els.
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Yugoslavia: Foreign Minister Nikezic will take
over as head of the Serbian Party in'an effort to
correct the disarray in the Serbian party organiza-
tion.
In a conversation with the US ambassador,
Nikezic confirmed that he will replace Peter Stam-
bolic, who was appointed Serbian Party leader last
January. The shift presumably will take place be-
fore or during the Serbian Party Congress scheduled
to convene on 21 November. Nikezic said that the
Yugoslav hierarchy has not been satisfied with Stam-
bolic's performance.
Tito hopes that Nikezic, who is known to be
modern and pragmatic, will be more successful than
his predecessor in promoting Yugoslavia's liberal
reform movement. The Serbs have been disgruntled
since the dismissal of Tito's heir-apparent, Rankovic,
in 1966. The traditionally conservative Serbs are
also vexed by the progressive loss of influence in
Yugoslav affairs to Croatia and Slovenia at Serbia's
expense. In addition, the Serbians stand to lose
if, as seems likely, the Albanian and Hungarian mi-
norities are granted more autonomy in Serbia.
Nikezic's replacement as foreign minister re-
portedly will be Veljko Micunovic, a former ambas-
sador to the US, who has strong pro-Western leanings.
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Jordan-Israel: The 51st anniversary of the
Balfour Declaration on 2 November may provide
the occasion for further disorders in Israeli-oc-
cupied Jordan.
The Balfour Declaration, issued in November
1917, granted official :British recognition of
Zionist aspirations for a Jewish homeland in
Palestine. Given the existing tensions on the
West Bank and mounting opposition among the area's
Arab citizenry to Israeli rule, the situation is
ripe for some major disturbance on the anniversary.
The West Bank Arabs are rapidly becoming con-
vinced that Israel has no intention of withdrawing.
Sentiment for terrorist activity is increasing and
anti-Israeli demonstrations have become a common
occurence. School strikes and other demonstrations
during October have provoked the Israeli authorities
to fire over the heads of demonstrators, to order
curfews in key West Bank towns, and to expel a
number of West Bank Arab leaders. A general strike
is planned for 2 November.
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Nepal: King Mahendra has taken significant
steps toward a reconciliation with his non-Communist
political opponents.
B.P. Koirala, prime minister in 1960 when
Mahendra ousted Nepal's first elected parliamentary
government and assumed personal control of the govern-
ment, has been released after eight years in prison.
Koirala is the former leader of the officially pro-
scribed Nepali Congress Party (NCP) and the only
popular figure capable of rallying the badly dis-
organized NCP elements in Nepal. His poor health
and the unknown conditions attached to his release,
however, may curtail his future involvement in
Nepalese politics.
The King's concurrent release of the only other
imprisoned top NCP leader and a grant of amnesty to
22 NCP members exiled in India are additional
evidence of Mahendra's cautious movement throughout
the year toward some liberalization of Nepal's po-
litical climate. Included among the pardoned ex-
iles is Subarna Shumshere, NCP acting president,
who last May publicly pledged the party's loyalty
to the King and sought permission for the exiles
to return to Nepal to participate in the kingdom's
partyless political system.
These moves, taken only two days before the
King's departure for a month abroad, signify
Mahendra's great personal confidence in his po-
litical position and in the stability of his govern-
ment. Mahendra appears to be progressing satis-
factorily from the heart attack he suffered last
March; he will undergo a medical check-up in London
this month. F I
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Ecuador: Student and labor problems encouraged
by his enemies are already causing difficulties for
President Velasco.
Guayaquil students have staged well-organized
disturbances designed to provoke the ouster of Mayor
Assad Bucaram, currently a political ally of Velasco.
Their clashes with the police have already forced
military intervention, and Bucaram expects them to
continue and even to get worse.
Meanwhile, cabinet officers are seriously con-
cerned over the large number of strikes and illegal
land takeovers that have taken place over recent
months.
Several of Velasco"s opponents are reportedly
inciting unrest. Carlos Julio Arosemena appears to
be deeply involved, at :Least in the labor unrest.
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USSR: Ships carrying the main force of the
fourteenth annual Soviet Antarctic expedition left
Leningrad last month. The expedition has 300 members,
100 more than last year. The Soviets, in addition
to conducting their usual research activities, plan
to build a powerful radio communications center at
their main base and to finish a complex there for
launching small meteorological sounding rockets.
They also will enlarge their fifth and newest sta-
tion, Bellingshausen, which opened last year. This
is the first Soviet station in the western part of
the continent.
Jamaica: Prime Minister Shearer is attempting
to curb public criticism of his government by admon-
ishing the clergy to refrain from focusing on cur-
rent political and socioeconomic problems. On 28
October, Shearer met with religious leaders and
urged them to exercise greater control over their
preachers. He also implied that work permits of
foreign clerics would be cancelled if they did not
restrain their criticisms. Shearer took a similar
tack during the rioting on 16 October by blaming
non-Jamaican West Indians at the Jamaica branch of
the Universit of the West Indies for much of the
trouble.
C Israel-Egypt: Israeli airborne commandos struck
two Nile bridges and a power station just north of
Aswan early this morning. The Israelis stated that
this was in retaliation for Egyptian artillery attacks
across the Suez Canal last Saturday. No Israeli cas-
ualties were incurred in the strike 125 miles into
Egyptian territory, according to the Israelis.
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