CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011900010001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 15, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Dept. review completed
15 August 1968
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No. 0235/68
15 August 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Communist China: Advanced weapons industry still
disrupted by factional disputes. (Page 3)
Communist China - Australia: Peking urgently nego-
tiating new wheat contract with Australia. (Page 4)
Korea: More North Korean intruders killed along the
Demilitarized Zone. (Page 5)
Mozambique: Nationalist group will increase anti-
Portuguese guerrilla operations. (Page 7)
Dominican Republic: Violence in Santo Domingo likely
tomorrow when new mayor is installed. (Page 8)
Mexico: Students will probably be allowed to con-
tinue their protests if demonstrations remain peace-
ful. (Page 9)
Panama: President-elect intends to dismiss National
Guard commandant. (Page 10)
North Korea: Pueblo propaganda (Page 11)
Cuba: Sugar harvest (Page 11)
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Malaysia: Violence anticipated (Page 12)
Chile: Socialist-Communist recriminations (Page 12)
Uruguay: Student demonstrations (Page 12)
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[Vietnam-.
South Vietnam-. Light contact and widely scat-
tered incidents were reported throughout South Viet-
nam on 13-14 August.
In one of the most significant actions, a Viet
Cong company destroyed a bridge along a major high-
way in Binh Dinh Province. Elsewhere in the country
enemy units continue preparations for large-scale
attacks which could come at any time.
A captured enemy document dated 2 July states
that the "third general offensive" will consist of
attacks on "all cities, bases, 'vital rear installa-
tions, communications routes, airfields, seaports,
and large South Vietnamese Army elements." Although
the exact date for the start of this offensive was
not given, the document indicates that the attacks
will celebrate Vietnamese Communist holidays on
19 August and 2 September.
Three South Vietnamese cabinet members have
reportedly expressed concern about what they con-
sider inadequate government preparations to meet
the Viet Cong's political challenge in the postwar
period.
1 -1 Interior
Minister Khiem pointed out that the Viet Cong are
establishing village administrative councils that
would surface after a cease-fire and assume de facto
control. All three cabinet members expressed dis-
satisfaction with the level of effort being expended
by President Thieu and Prime Minister Huong to
counter this Communist effort and to drum up public
support for the government.
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15 Aug 68
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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North Vietnam: North Vietnam is becoming in-
creasingly dependent upon imported food to offset
its own deteriorating rice production.
Imported food from the Soviet Union and Com-
munist China amounted to about 440,000 tons during
the first seven months of 1968, compared with about
460,000 tons for all of 1967 and only 80,000 tons
for all of 1966. The spring rice crop this year in
North Vietnam was below normal and it was harvested
a month late, thus delaying the planting and en-
dangering the output of the more important fall
rice crop.
Concern over the domestic rice situation was
voiced in early August by the party daily, which
called for greater efforts to overcome "present
shortcomings" and to "solve the food problem in a
more steady manner." The party daily pointed to
controls over food distribution and the distribution
of labor as key problems. Both of these difficulties
have plagued Hanoi's planners for several years but
it appears that little pro ress has been made in
solving them.
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15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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Communist China: Organizations responsible
for important aspects of advanced weapons develop-
ment, particularly ballistic missiles, continued to
be embroiled in factional disputes at least through
July.
According to a recently published Red Guard
newspaper, Premier Chou En-lai released a statement
early in June deploring the fact that production
had been severely affected in the 7th Ministry of
Machine Building, which is involved in the produc-
tion of missiles. The premier criticized rival fac-
tions in the ministry for refusing to heed orders
he had given in January, and again urged them to
unite. This new appeal was evidently unsuccessful
because the two factions, which have been at odds
for nearly two years, continued to engage in a
poster war that was visible to foreigners in Peking
through at least mid-July.
In a related development, Nieh Jung-chen, prob-
ably the top Chinese official concerned with ad-
vanced weapons development, has come under increas-
ingly heavy poster attack. One statement, suppos-
edly signed by Mao Tse-tung's niece among others,
denounced Nieh for a long list of crimes against
Mao and the Cultural Revolution. Politburo member
Nieh is chairman of the National Defense Scientific
and Technological Commission and a long time subor-
dinate of Premier Chou.
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Communist China - Australia: Peking, apparently
concerned about grain rospects, has sought urgent
negotiations with Melbourne for wheat.
Australian wheat board members interrupted a
Southeast Asian tour to meet a Chinese request for
negotiation of a new wheat contract in Peking on 13
August. China probably hopes to conclude a new con-
tract with deliveries to begin by December in order
to avoid a break in grain shipments under a one-
million-ton contract signed with Australia last Feb-
ruary.
Expected crop shortfalls in China this year
caused by poor weather and Cultural Revolution dis-
ruptions may reverse the decline in wheat imports
that has occurred during the past 12 months. Grain
imports which had been arranged for this year
amounted to some 3.6 million tons, 600,000 tons less
than were imported in 1967. Grain negotiations with
Canada reportedly will follow shortly after negotia-
tions are completed with Australia. Current Canadian
deliveries are scheduled to be fulfilled in October.
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Korea: South Korean troops killed at least
three North Korean intruders in four incidents along
the Demilitarized Zone on 14 August.
About 30 North Koreans have been killed thus
far in August, 13 of them since the 10th. One
American and five South Korean soldiers have died
in incidents so far this month. Most of the North
Korean teams engaged were on reconnaissance missions
and were, therefore, vulnerable to ambushes.
The North Koreans almost certainly are con-
cerned about the imbalance in the casualty figures.
After nine North Koreans were killed and two cap-
tured on 3 and 4 August, North Korean troops at-
tacked a US patrol near Panmunjom and planted anti-
tank mines in a road leading to a UN Command guard
post. They may again attempt to raise the morale
of their infiltrators and reduce the effectiveness
of the UN forces by trying to set up more ambushes
of US and South Korean units patrolling the southern
half of the Demilitarized Zone. They may also at-
tempt to blow u installations and equipment.
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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J CABO
J DEL GADO iiPorto Amelia
C
Salisbury
RHODESIA
(U.K.)
BOTSWANA
ne)
/Mbaba``
SWAZILAND
(U.K.) r
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District boundary
District capital
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REPUBLIC
OF
SOUTH AFRICA
Bassas da Indiad
(Fr.)
MOZAMBIQUE
GUERRILLA ACTIVITY
Insurgent action reported since
March 1968
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Mozambique: Mozambique's principal nationalist
group, FRELIMO, probably has overcome the most recent
political challenge to its leadership and has cleared
the way for increased guerrilla pressure against the
Portuguese.
Reports on a FRELIMO congress held late last
month--apparently within Mozambique--indicate that
the FRELIMO executive was easily re-elected, and its
relatively moderate president, Eduardo Mondlane, con-
firmed. Since March, Mondlane had been under fire
from FRELIMO "rebels" on ideological, racial, and
tribal issues. Support on these issues from anti-
Mondlane elements in the Tanzanian Government served
to obstruct FRELIMO efforts to quash the discontent.
A FRELIMO decision to hold the congress inside Mo-
zambique would have seemed in part designed to ensure
a free hand to deal with the dissidents.
FRELIMO probably will now concentrate on
guerrilla operations. An upsurge in activity ear-
lier this year was the most substantial of the four-
year-old insurgency. The group forced the Portuguese
to abandon some of their more isolated military out-
posts and native fortified villages and began a drive
to harass the Portuguese in the northwestern Tete
district,
The Organization of African Unity Liberation
Committee announced in July it was increasing mili-
tary aid to FRELIMO. After the congress, Mondlane
stated that FRELIMO has decided "to intensify" re-
lations with "socialist countries," and forecast
additional assistance from FRELIMO's major military
suppliers, the Soviets and Chinese Communists.
FRELIMO, however, will still find it hard going to
extend the fighting southward into heavily populated
areas or to disrupt significant economic activity.
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Dominican Re uublic: Sporadic violence seems
likely in Santo Domingo tomorrow, when a supporter
of President Balaguer will be inaugurated as mayor.
The outgoing mayor, a member of the left-of-
center Dominican Revolutionary Party, has been pad-
ding the payrolls with his supporters and encourag-
ing his party and the extreme left to organize mu-
nicipal workers in an effort to cause serious prob-
lems for his successor. Some Communist hotheads
have been talking of launching an "armed uprising"
on inauguration day, but anything more than minor
violence seems beyond the capability of the faction-
alized left. Trouble may also come from rightist
supporters of exiled General Wessin who hope to
initiate disorders that the government will blame
on the left.
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Mexico: The government appears willing to allow
the students to continue their strike and air their
grievances as long as the demonstrations remain
peaceful.
Leaflets distributed during the orderly mass
march on 13 August claimed that the student strike
is spreading rapidly and called for labor support
in the form of a 24-hour general strike. The pro-
test is focusing mainly on police brutality, but
other issues such as university autonomy, impris-
oned students, and better pay for teachers are in-
volved.
The government has refused to grant concessions
and has appealed to the public to bring the students
into line. Mexico City's Mayor Corona del Rosal, who
has been the official spokesman--and who may end up
as the official scapegoat--angered students with his
charges that the disturbances are actually a prema-
ture outburst in a plot to foment trouble between
police and students, and with his hints of Cuban
involvement. He denied reports that some students
were killed and said there was no violation of uni-
versity autonomy,
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Panama: President-elect Arias intends to sack
National Guard Commandant Vallarino as soon as he
takes office.
Arias told US Embassy officials that the change
in guard leadership will take place when top guard
officers submit their pro forma resignations to the
incoming president on I October. Arias added, how-
ever, that he will offer the general some prestig-
ious position abroad--possibly an ambassadorial
post.
The decision, which was not unexpected, indi-
cates Arias' growing impatience with what he con-
siders Vallarino"s interference in the electoral
process. the two have
had a sharp clash over Arias' determination to dic-
tate the winners of seats in the new National As-
sembly, Arias' insistence on dominating the legis-
lature has run into stiff opposition from the guard
chief, who allegedly wants to control enough deputies
to wield the balance of power.
Vallarino, who appears to have the backing of
his officers, has indicated that he expects to con-
tinue as head of the guard. If the rift deepens,
he may well try to turn the tables and revent
Arias from assuming the. residency.
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NOTES
North Korea: Pyongyang apparently is stepping
up its propaganda campaign to put pressure on the
US to meet Communist terms for release of the Pueblo
crew. A Pyongyang broadcast yesterday reported a
press conference in which crew members, including
the captain, allegedly repeated earlier statements
"confessing" their "guilt" and requesting US conces-
sions to obtain their release. This is the first
major North Korean propaganda exploitation of the
prisoners since early April, and may have been aimed,
in part, at refutina its that some of the crew
were ill or dead.
Cuba: Fidel Castro has replaced the minister
of sugar industries, Orlando Borrego, in an apparent
attempt to provide a scapegoat for this year's dis-
appointing sugar harvest. The estimated production
of slightly more than five million tons--about a
million tons below last year's crop--was a severe
setback in the plan to produce ten million tons in
1970. The appointment of Francisco Padron, formerly
in charge of the ministry's successful industrial
expansion program, indicates, however, that efforts
to maximize sugar output will not be abandoned.
(continued)
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Malaysia: Violence may break out in the Chinese
community if the government carries out its plan to
execute 11 Chinese convicted of collaboration with the
Indonesians during the confrontation period. Two Ma-
lays who were to be hanged with the Chinese on 16
August have received stays of execution for a final
appeal, and this may sharpen the Chinese community's
reaction. The Malaysian Government believes, however,
that police vi 'lance will prevent more than isolated
disturbances.1
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Chile: A student attack on Communist he
last week has led to recriminations among the
Communists, the Socialists, and the extremist Move-
ment of the Revolutionary Left. After Socialist
members of Congress denounced the violence, a So-
cialist youth claimed that the extremist group had
led the attack. He added that the Communists were
partly to blame for the street fighting that pre-
ceded it because Communist students had beaten up
Socialists earlier in the week. Although relations
between the Socialists and Communists, who cooperate
in the Popular Action ?ront, are strained, this is
the most serious incident-between them ? in
months. F77 I
Uruguay: Large-scale student demonstrations
and strikes accompanied by violence are expected in
Montevideo today. Violence has subsided little
since 9 August when students began rioting in pro-
test to a government raid on the National University.
A youth injured in those riots has died and the Com-
munist Party plans new antigovernment demonstrations
to mourn the "student martyr." The security forces
are efficient but becoming jaded after long hours
of duty and will be hard pressed to control wide-
spread disorders.
15 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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