CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011800120001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 14, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Secret
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No. 0234/68
14 August 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
Czechoslovakia: Talks with East Germany have not im-
proved relations. (Page 2)
West Germany - USSR: Bonn backs activities in West Berlin
despite threatened Communist harassment. (Page 3)
Thailand: Recent Association of Southeast Nations meet-
r.
on regional security. (Page 4)
Korea: Security measures in the South make infiltration
from the North more difficult. (Page 5)
Indonesia: Army deals severe blow to Communists. (Page 6)
Burma: Insurgent activity may reflect Communist effort
to establish base area. (Page 7)
Southern Yemen: Dissident areas neutralized. (Page 9)
Congo (Brazzaville): Army gaining in political maneu-
vering. (Page 10)
Argentina: Military chiefs to retire this year. (Page 11)
Uruguay: Student disorders continue. (Page 12)
USSR-Brazil: Soviets survey shale oil deposits. (Page 13)
Greece: Assassination attempt (Page 14)
Bolivia: Military resignations (Page 14)
Mexico: Student demonstration (Page 14)
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[South Vietnam: Military activity has picked
up considerably during the past two days in the
provinces around Saigon but remains light and spo-
radic elsewhere.
A series of battles in Long An Province which
killed more than 100 Communists marked the heaviest
fighting of the past month in this area. Elsewhere
in III Corps, an estimated enemy battalion attacked
an outpost in Tay Ninh Province and shellings were
reported in several provinces.
Adding to indications of an impending enemy
offensive are recent reports from prison-
ers referring to planned attacks during the period
18 to 20 August. Among the specific targets cited
were Quang Tri city in the far north, Ban Me Thuot
in the highlands, Phuoc Long Province in northern
III Corps, and Saigon. in a central
coastal province referre to p ans tor an "uprising"
on the 19th, and a prisoner alleged that a nation-
wide offensive is scheduled for the 20th.
Although it is questionable that the timing of
a renewed offensive would be revealed below the top
command echelons, these reports may indicate that
Communist troops are being told to complete prep-
arations for early action.
14 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Czechoslovakia: The Czechoslovak - East German
talks at Karlovy Vary apparently did little to im-
prove relations between the two countries.
Ulbricht's chilly reception contrasted sharply
to the rousing welcome accorded Yugoslavia's Tito
in Prague last weekend. It appears that Dubcek and
Ulbricht merely recited their respective views. The
brief concluding communique was uninspiring.
By contrast, Dubcek's meeting with Tito was
exceptionally cordial, and concluded with a joint
pledge to seek improved relations. The Yugoslavs
moreover proposed to assist Prague with some of its
economic problems, such as labor supply and construc-
tion.
Czechoslovak National Assembly President
Smrkovsky stated that the discussions with Ulbricht
dwelt on the future and emphasized economic rela-
tions. On the latter topic, Ulbricht publicly in-
timated that there had been differences in outlook.
Ulbricht also implied that Prague had acquiesced
in the "conditions" he has repeatedly said the West
Germans must meet before any Eastern European coun-
try could establish diplomatic relations with them.
Prague will receive Rumanian party chief
Ceausescu on 15 August. Dubcek has announced that
no further bilateral consultations with the Brat-
islava participants are planned prior to the Czech-
oslovak party congress. which opens on 9 September.
14 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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West Germany - USSR: The West German Government
continues to back plans for several activities in
West Berlin later this year despite the threat of new
Communist harassments.
The first will be the annual meeting of Germans
formerly resident in areas now controlled by the
USSR, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, which will convene
on 29 August. Next, in November, will come the na-
tional party convention of the Christian Democrats
(CDU) and a Bundestag committee workweek.
The Soviets and East Germans usually limit their
responses to protests and propaganda about the "re-
vanchist" or "illegal" nature of such activities.
During the last year, however, they have shown a
greater sensitivity to events which reflect Bonn's
ties to West Berlin, and, because of the Czechoslo-
vak situation, their threshold of reaction may be
lower than usual. One official of the Soviet Embassy
in East Berlin asserted that a CDU convention may be
greeted by "sonic booms," a form of harassment used
during the last plenary meeting of the Bundestag in
Berlin in April 1965.
Although Communist restrictions on ground ac-
cess routes to Berlin this spring are still fresh in
mind, West German and West Berlin leaders argue that
more would be lost by canceling these activities
than by going through with them. Bonn, however, has
canceled a Bundestag workweek slated for September,
ostensibly because of a conflict in scheduling. It
may also decide against a defense committee meeting
at the time of the November workweek.
The Western Allies are inclined to go along
with Bonn's decisions on these matters on the ground
that they fall within the realm of "normal" West
German activity in West Berlin.
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Thailand: Disquiet over the future course of
US policy in Southeast Asia appears to have surfaced
at the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) talks.
A well-placed Thai official claims that informal
discussions at last week's ASEAN ministerial meeting
in Djakarta focused on the impact of the South Viet-
nam war on regional security. He told a US Embassy
official that the five ASEAN members agreed that no
matter what happened in Vietnam, the US would even-
tually "withdraw" from the region and that the Com-
munist threat would increase.
The Thai official indicated that no substantive
decisions were made at Djakarta, but he was clearly
pleased that the members had come to share Bangkok's
view that ASEAN's goal should be to work out both
joint and national programs to confine Communism to
Vietnam. The foreign ministers also agreed to hold
additional informal talks as Vietnam developments
warrant.
Bangkok is almost certainly interpreting the
Djakarta talks in a way that will underline its view
that a US withdrawal from South Vietnam would have
grave consequences for all of Southeast Asia. At
the same time, the Thai believe that a continuing US
commitment in the area is far from assured and that
the time has come for the regional non-Communist na-
tions to seek their own solutions. Bangkok is under
no illusions, however, about the difficulties it
faces in getting nations such as Indonesia and the
Philippines to translate into action their growing
concern over future security arrangements in the
area.
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Korea: South Korean troops have killed ten
North Koreans in four encounters along the Demili-
tarized Zone since 10 August.
The latest incidents, in which only one South
Korean soldier was wounded, follow a rash of fire
fights between South Korean soldiers and North Ko-
rean infiltrators during the first week of August.
About 26 infiltrators have been killed and two cap-
tured near the zone this month, the highest loss
rate thus far in 1968. South Korean security meas-
ures--including the recently completed anti-infiltra-
tion fence, aggressive patrolling, and the introduc-
tion of night-detection equipment--are making it
more difficult for the North Koreans to infiltrate
successfully.
Equipment found in the areas of the encounters
includes cameras, binoculars, and a telescope, which
suggests that the intruders were on missions to ob-
serve and photograph obstacles and installations
near the zone.
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Indonesia: The Indonesian Army appears to have
dealt a severe blow to the Communist organization in
southeast Java where the party had established a haven
and was conducting a terrorist campaign.
East Java commander General Jasin claimed in a
press briefing on 9 August that 12 members of the
party's central committee and 1.2 members of the East
Java regional committee were captured in the course
of the army's May to July campaign. Some 850 suspects
were arrested.
The army operation began shortly after a late
May meeting of the politburo in the haven. This
meeting may largely explain the presence of so many
top Communist leaders in the area, including the
party chairman and his deputy. The party, now de-
prived of almost all its experienced pre-coup leaders,
may be forced to curtail both political and terror-
ist activity until a new central leadership coalesces.
The army, however, is aware that the Communist
organization is well developed in East Java as well
as in Central Java, and is concerned about the pos-
sibility of new outbreaks elsewhere.
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Burma: Heightened insurgent activity in north-
east Burma may reflect a new Communist effort to
establish a base area.
In a series of armed contacts since last June,
Burmese Communists allied with ethnic insurgents have
destroyed bridges and inflicted heavy casualties on
Burmese Army forces. One of the encounters, believed
the largest between insurgents and government troops
in recent years, reportedly involved an insurgent
force of 600 men and resulted in nearly 50 Burmese
fatalities.
The attacking forces appear to be elements of
the White Flag Communists' "Northeastern Command,"
an ethnically mixed group which began operating in
the area along the Chinese border early this year.
These elements have on occasion retreated into China
and apparently have received some limited Chinese
assistance.
The destruction of bridges leading to Burmese
towns on the Chinese border reportedly has virtually
suspended motor traffic. The presence of the Burmese
Army vice chief of staff to direct antiguerrilla op-
erations reflects the seriousness with which Rangoon
views the situation. A sustained insurgent campaign
against transportation routes in this area of dif-
ficult terrain could isolate Burmese border towns
and greatly inhibit Burmese Army effectiveness.
14 Aug 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Dissident Areas in Southern Yemen
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Southern Yemen: Three dissident areas, prima-
rily in the north, have been neutralized by the army,
but exiled groups are planning further outbreaks.
The most important areas of tribal rebellion,
primarily in the south, appear to be quiet after re-
inforced army units fought off attacks last week.
The government claims that the rebels suffered heavy
losses in men and weapons, including artillery. Minor
incidents were reported in the eastern and western
areas.
The National Liberation Front government contin-
ues to blame the "Saudi-British-American conspiracy"
and condemns stooges "blinded by CIA gold." Despite
such inflammatory propaganda, Aden remains quiet,
and officials show little rancor in talks with US
representatives.
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Rebellion is endemic in the tribal areas of
Southern Yemen.
the problems of logistics and tribal
politics ma e the area a quagmire for outside assist-
ance.
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Congo (Brazzaville): Political maneuvering con-
tinues in Brazzaville, with the army increasingly
prominent in the balance of power.
The jockeying for position appears to center on
the powerful new National Council of the Revolution.
The leftist-extremists, virtually excluded from other
positions of power, reportedly are pushing hard for
strong representation in the new institution. The
delay in promulgating its membership, initially prom-
ised for 9 August, is further evidence that political
infighting is stalling its formal organization.
The army, which controls the two most important
cabinet portfolios, will strongly influence the final
make-up of the council. The army, in apparent coop-
eration with Civil Defense Corps leaders, has ordered
the disarming of all other paramilitary forces. This
action seems directed primarily at armed units of the
party's radical youth group, which in the past have
been least subject to government control and the most
responsive to the will of the extremists.
Radical elements of the Civil Defense Corps ap-
pear to have been neutralized, for the time being at
least, by absorption into the regular armed forces.
These troops reportedly will be enrolled in the gen-
darmerie school and ultimately will become regular
gendarmes.
President Massamba-Debat appears to retain power
at the sufferance of the army, which, is probably more
in tune ideologically with him than with any other
prominent local politician.
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Argentina: President Ongania reportedly plans
to announce this week that all three military serv-
ice chiefs will retire by the end of the year.
The move, which had long been anticipated, was
expected to produce a confrontation between Ongania
and army commander in chief General Julio Alsogaray,
the leader of the so-called "liberal" faction in the
government. Alsogaray, whose brother Alvaro resigned
last week as ambassador to the US, has reportedly
agreed to accept. retirement without a struggle, how-
ever, thus opening the way for Ongania to appoint a
general more strongly in his own camp.
It is also possible that Ongania will remove
some members of the opposing "nationalist" faction
in the government by the end of the year to balance
Alsogaray's retirement. High on the eligible list
is Interior Minister Borda, a former Peronist, who
is anathema to many leading military officers.
By maintaining an equilibrium between the two
factions in the government and by retaining military
support, Ongania hopes to be able to continue the
reform programs that both factions have opposed at
various times.
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Uruguay: Scattered student disorders protesting
government raids on the national university are con-
tinuing.
The security forces are performing efficiently
but Communist plans for renewed demonstrations and
a general work stoppage on 14 August may result in
increased violence.
President Pacheco has taken advantage of the
riots to ask the senate's permission to sack the univer-
sity's left-leaning rector and his central council.
Many legislators, however, hesitate to approve an
action that could be construed as interference with
the university's autonomy, although they generally
favor Pacheco's get-tough policy.
The recent rioting has shaken Uruguay's students
out of their lethargy, and discontent over poor eco-
nomic conditions and government austerity measures
is likely to produce additional student protests no
matter who heads the university council.
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USSR-Brazil: Eight Soviet technicians are now
in Sao Paulo State surveying shale deposits.
Their study, which will determine the feasibil-
ity of constructing a plant to process shale in
order to obtain oil, gas, and such by-products as
detergents, solvents, and insecticides, was con-
tracted for last January by a private Brazilian
company, Companhia Industrial de Rochas Betuminosas.
Travel expenses, salaries, and the cost of the Soviet
report are to be paid through the Soviet-Brazilian
clearing account.
According to company officials, the final con-
tract, if signed with the USSR, would provide a
$100-million credit repayable in ten years at three
percent interest annually, with a four-year grace
period. The USSR would supply all the machinery
and equipment, supervise the installation of the
plant, lay a pipeline to supply gas to Sao Paulo
and nearby cities, and train Brazilian engineers
in the USSR.
The Soviets previously have examined the proj-
ect, but the company's poor financial position
seemed to prevent successful negotiations. Brazil-
ian Government approval will be necessary to pro-
ceed with such an arrangement. Petrobras, the
state petroleum enterprise, is already develo in
other shale deposits.
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Greece: Prime Minister Papadopoulos escaped
injury in an assassination attempt upon him early
yesterday. Security police have arrested an army
lieutenant, who is a deserte , but authorities be-
lieve others were involved. They charged that the
conspirators are "fascists," not Communists. This
is the first reported. attempt on the life ora junta
member since the April 1967 coup, and will probably
result in even stricter watch over antijunta ele-
ments as the plebiscite scheduled for 29 September
approaches.
Bolivia: The submission of resignations by the
armed forces high command on 12 August was a scheme
agreed on by President Barrientos and armed forces
commander General Ovando to oust army chief of staff
General Marcos Vasquez. Vasquez, who has figured
prominently in coup rumors in recent months, is being
closely watched to prevent him from gathering support
among young officers for a move against the govern-
ment. General Ovando's role in this maneuver indi-
cates that he still considers it in his best inter-
est to back Barrientos.
[Mexico: A mass demonstration in the capital
last night may have restored momentum to the student
strike. Thousands of students turned out for the
peaceful march in spite of such deterrents as chronic
organizational problems, end of school-year exams,
and general lack of public sympathy. Police bru-
tality and violated university autonomy along with
other long-standing grievances have, however, proved
highly charged issues that defy easy solution. They
provide a touchstone for further possible student
outbursts.
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