CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011700060001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 24, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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D
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
24 July 1.96 8
STATE review(s) completed.
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No.. 0216/68
24 July 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
USSR-Czechoslovakia: Moscow steps up pressure in
preparation for leaders' talks. (Page 2)
Communist China: Heavy flooding ruins chances for
goo early grain harvest. (Page 5)
~Im~ The new regime seems to be a coalition of at
least three groups with Baathists in a minority.
(Page 6)
Chile: A severe drought is adding to the govern-
ment's economic problems. (Page 7)
Bolivia: The latest Guevara diary crisis appears
to iPave subsided u (Page 8)
Rhodesia: Economy improves (Page 9)
Sierra Leone: Unsettled situation (Page 9)
Cuba: Air defense (Page 11)
Uruguay: Wage-price freeze (Page 11)
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[South Vietnam: The slightly increased tempo
of combat activity this week has been concentrated
in the northern provinces with scattered actions
elsewhere.
In addition to the coordinated enemy rocket
and mortar attacks around Da Nang, Communist forces
have shelled US field positions southeast of Hue and
the provincial capital city, Quang Ngai. The attack
on Quang Ngai included several ground probes against
military and civilian targets in the city and in near-
by district towns. All the probes were repelled with
minor losses on both sides.
These actions are not included in the latest
weekly battle statistics, which reflect some rise
in enemy-initiated incidents and casualties for the
period ending 20 July. The levels, however, are
still consistent with the over-all lull in the fight-
ing which is evidenced by a further decline in al-,
lied casualties.
Wide publicity is being given to letters sup-
posedly written to President Thieu and Ambassador
Bunker by the widows of six South Vietnamese offi-.
cers killed in an accidental US rocket attack in
early June. The letters call the officers' deaths
"mysterious" and imply that they may be related to
a weakening of US resolve in South Vietnam. The US
Embassy suspects that they may be the work of some
heavy-handed supporters of Vice President Ky who
tend to view their current eclipse as part of a de-
sign to foist a coalition government on Saigon.
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C USSR-Czechoslovakia.: Moscow yesterday again
stepped up the pressure on Prague, this time in prep-
aration for the talks between the Soviet politburo
and the Czechoslovak presidium.
Izvestia yesterday announced a massive rear
services exercise to take place in most of the west-
ern USSR, including the Carpathian Military District
adjacent to Czechoslovakia. The exercise, probably
the largest of this type to take place since July
1961, is clearly designed to bolster the position of
the politburo in its confrontation with the Czecho-
slovak leadersh:Lp.
Izvestia carried the announcement of the exer-
cise alongside a notice of the politburo members'
decision to go to Czechoslovakia for talks with
their Czechoslovak counterparts. Neither Moscow nor
Prague has indicated that a time or site for the
meeting has been set. The Yugoslav news agency
TANYUG, however, reported yesterday that the polit-
buro had already left Moscow. The report has not
been confirmed or denied by any other source but
TANYUG is usually accurate on such matters.
Along with its latest threatening military
moves, Moscow stepped up its propaganda against
Prague. The Soviet military organ Red Star at-
tacked General Prchlik, the Czechoslovak party
official in charge of military and security af-
fairs, for his criticism of the Warsaw Pact com-
mand structure at a press conference a week ago.
Izvestia weighed in with a veiled attack on the
Czechoslovak minister of the interior, reprint-
ing a letter charging him with complicity in the
political trials of the 1950s. According to un-
confirmed news reports, among the demands in the
Soviet note reportedly handed to the Czechoslovaks
on 22 July was one that certain officials be re-
moved from power,
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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[It is still unclear how many members of the
Czechoslovak presidium will participate in the dis-
cussions with the Soviet politburo. Prague has yet
to acknowledge officially that all 11 would join
their Soviet counterparts, and a presidium member
stated on 22 July that only six members from both
sides would attend the meeting. A Western news
service reported yesterday, however, that "knowl-
edgeable" sources in Prague said the Czechoslovaks
had "virtually" agreed that the entire presidium
would be present.
The Soviets desire that the entire Czechoslovak
presidium be included in the talks, presumably be-
cause they hope one or more of the Czechoslovaks
will waver in the face of Soviet pressure. Various
factions are represented in the presidium, and some
members reportedly favored accepting the earlier
Soviet proposal to attend the Warsaw summit meeting.
They eventually acquiesced in the final decision
not to go, however, and since then the nationwide
support given to the leadership has strengthened
the presidium's resolve and unity.
A Czechoslovak journalist told Western diplo-
mats on 23 July that the Soviet note delivered on
22 July dealt with the arms cache found in Czecho-
slovakia. He asserted that in the note Moscow did
not propose stationing Soviet troops in Czechoslo-
vakia. Yesterday, however, the commander of Czecho-
slovak border guards defended Prague's ability and
willingness to protect its borders with West Germany.
This suggests at least that Czechoslovak officials
are alert to the possibility that the Soviets may
present arguments concerning Czechoslovak defense
capabilities to justif the stationing of Soviet
forces in the country.
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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Communist China: Areas Where Flooding Has Been Reported Since Mid-June
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Communist China: Flooding after a spring of
poor weather has ended all chances for a good early
grain harvest.
Heavy rains since mid-June have flooded or
threatened to flood progressively larger areas of
central and south China. Kwangtung, Kiangsi, and
Fukien provinces have borne the brunt of the rains
so far, but as of late July, the Yangtze, Huai, Kan,
and other large rivers were reported over the danger
markers and continuing to rise.
It is too soon to estimate how much damage has
been done to the 25 million tons of early rice that
were ready for harvesting when heavy rains began.
The press reports large-scale mobilization of person-
nel to protect dikes and widespread relief flights.
Some crop losses, however, appear inevitable, and
the effects on the year's total grain harvest will
be compounded b a probable delay in planting the
next crop.
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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Iraq: The new regime now seems to be a coalition
of at least three groups, with the Baath Party ad-
herents in a minority.
Although information is still fragmentary, the
strongest of the groups seems to be that led by Abd
al-Razzaq al-Nayif, the deputy director of military
intelligence who has just been named Prime Minister.
Al-Nayif is said to have been the leader of a group
of unknown, politically inexperienced, youthful army
officers calling themselves the "Arab Revolutionary
Movement."
Al-Nayif's group apparently allied itself with
a group of relatively conservative, senior army of-
ficers led by Abd al-Aziz Ugayli, who has been a
well-known "hawk" on the Kurdish issue. The two
military groups seem to have turned to the moderate
wing of the Baath Party in order to attract broader
representation and civilian participation.
There are already signs of friction between
Prime minister a:1-Na if and some of the Baathists.
Ial-Nayif has moved to neu-
traTize Me tl tional guard--a Baathist civilian
paramilitary organization--by making it known that
any civilian carrying a weapon will be imprisoned.
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Area Moderately
Affected by Drought
Chile: The worst drought in
100 years is adding to the govern-
ment's difficulties with its stabi-
lization program.
Rainfall in the northern part
of the agriculturally important
Central Valley is only 20 percent
of normal this year, and snowfall
in the Andes, on which Chile de-
pends for summer irrigation, has
been very light.
The drought has resulted in a
reduction in hydroelectric power
output in central Chile which is
cutting copper production there.
Livestock losses are already sub-
stantial because of inadequate for-
age, and the government has estab-
lished food relief programs in the
hardest hit northern provinces.
Unless heavy rain and snow fall
during the remainder of this winter,
Chile may have to double its food
imports'which amounted to over $125
million last year. Such an increase,
on top of the expenditures for
drought relief and the expected de-
cline in copper revenues, would in-
tensify inflationary pressures and
balance--of- a ments problems,
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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Bolivia: The political crisis stimulated by
accusations of treason against ex- Minister of Gov-
ernment Arguedas appears to have subsided.
Some 40 leaders and members of the political
opposition have been arrested under the state of
siege declared on 22 July, and there has been no
repetition of the violent demonstrations that broke
out last Saturday. President Barrientos has named
the chief of the national guard to head the Ministry
of Government, but the plans reported earlier for a
major cabinet shake-up have not been implemented.
In Chile, Arguedas has admitted that he passed
Che Guevara's diary to the Cubans, but Chilean au-
thorities question his whole story. They announced
yesterday that he would soon be released "at the
border of his choosing." Meanwhile Cuban spokesmen
have said Havana may offer Arguedas asylum.
F I
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Rhodesia: Despite continued economic sanctions,
Rhodesia's economy performed well during the first
half of 1968. Output in the manufacturing, mining,
and commercial sectors rose, and over-all economic
gains were held back mainly by a decline in agricul-
tural production caused by a severe drought. Employ-
ment has also increased. African employment was up
by about 7,000, and the number of Europeans, Asian,
and Colored job-holders rose by more than 3,000.
Moreover, domestic exports during the first half of
the year increased by 3.6 percent over the same period
last year, and imports rose by about 9 percent, mainly
because of a demand for equipment needed for develo -
ment projects.
Sierra Leone: The internal political situation
has not settled down since the overthrow of the former
military regime in April. Conditions within the vir-
tually leaderless army remain bad. The army commander,
unable to inspire the loyalty of his troops, is said
to have asked to be relieved of his command. All ef-
forts by the fragile and erratic government of Prime
Minister Stevens to establish control over the mutin-
ous troops have failed. Meanwhile, the national po-
lice are hard pressed to control continuing outbreaks
of civil disturbances upcountry as Stevens' supporters
take revenge on enemies.
(continued)
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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HAVANA Cojimar
FlntaBaiienaos
25X
perational SA-2 site
? SAM site under construction
6 a ~ $AM Sites
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Cuba: Aerial photography I Ishows a
new SA-2 surface-to-air missile site under construc-
tion at Baguanos in eastern Cuba. Three other sites
are still under construction at Santiago, Cojimar,
and Punta Ballenatos. These four and the 23 opera-
tional SA-2 installations have all been photographed
since 12 June. No significant change in Cuba's air
defense capability has been observed.
Uruguay: A 64-percent increase in the cost of
living during the first six months of 1968 has led
the government to declare a temporary wage-price
freeze and to seek legislation restricting wage in-
creases and labor agitation even after the present
limited state of siege is lifted. The wage freeze
has filled a crucial gap in the stabilization pro-
gram, which also calls for tight credit controls and
reduction in the budget deficit. If the price spiral
had been permitted to rise at the recent rate, it
would have reached 168 percent for this year--a record
for Uruguay and close to the Latin American record
established by Bolivia in the mid-1950s.
24 Jul 68 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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