CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A011500100001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 1, 1968
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
51
1 July 1968
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No. 0196/68
1 July 1968
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
South Vietnam: Situation report. (Page 1)
France: Gaullist landslide indicates most French-
men still fear Communists and want public order
above all. (Page 2)
Nonproliferation Treaty: At least 45 nations will
sign the treaty today. (Page 4)
Poland: Regime revealing the extent of its coun-
termeasures against students. (Page 5)
Egypt-USSR: Nasir's visit (Page 7)
Philippines: Huk rebels (Page 7)
Uruguay: Inflation controls (Page 8)
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[South Vietnam: The anticipated Communist move
against Saigon may have been further delayed.
The third phase of the Communist's second of-
fensive, reportedly already delayed from late June
or early July, may have been postponed until August.
This is suggested by a captured enemy document of
13 June containing orders for intelligence collec-
tion efforts that are to be completed by the first
part of August. Prisoners taken during the current
intensive allied sweep operations in the capital
area have reported increasing personnel and supply
problems, which may have forced the Communists to
reschedule their timetable.
Ground fighting between allied and Communist
forces remained sporadic and scattered in South
Vietnam's I and III Corps over the weekend. Most
of the clashes developed in reaction to vigorous
allied field maneuvers aimed at concentrations of
enemy forces and supply areas.
.President Thieu has taken the first step to-
ward launching a progovernment political organiza-
tion by hosting an assemblage of political and re-
ligious leaders on 29 June. In a keynote address,
Thieu described his role as an indirect one of "en-
couraging" the development of a two-party system
that would enable the country eventually to cope
with the Communists in the political arena.
There are some indications that the reported
release of militant Buddhist Tri Quang, although
foreshadowed by statements of Prime Minister Huong,
was a price paid by Thieu for the participation of
one of the four groups expected to serve a the
cornerstones of the new government
L__
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C France: The Gaullists' landslide election vic-
tory indicates that most Frenchmen still fear the
Communists and want public order above all.
For the first time in the ten-year-old Fifth
Republic, the orthodox Gaullist party--the Union
of Democrats for the Fifth Republic--holds an ab-
solute majority in parliament without the support
of the Gaullist-allied Independent Republicans or
other parties. The Union and the Independent Re-
publicans together won a total of 355 seats out of
a possible 487--about 300 of which went to the or-
thodox Gaullists. The Independent Republicans have
announced that they will remain in the Gaullist ma-
jority, although maintaining a "critical approach."
Communist and Federation of the Left losses,
which left both parties with only about half of the
seats they held in the previous parliament, are cer-
tain to exacerbate divisions both within and between
the groupings. The results could split the leadership
of the Communist Party between the "old guard," which
has always been dubious about cooperating with the
non-Communist left, and elements within the party
who want to associate more closely with students and
workers. The federation's poor showing will lead to
renewed pressure to move away from the Communists
and toward a center-left coalition. The center,
which declined still further as an independent po-
litical entity, may be forced to turn to the non-
Communist left because the Gaullists now have no
need of center support.
The massive Gaullist majority could neutralize
the legislative arm of the government and make the
National Assembly even more of a rubber stamp than
in the past. The executive branch under De Gaulle
is likely to assume primary responsibility for find-
ing solutions to the grave problems that produced -
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the student-labor crisis. The victory could give
impetus to a new and meaningful program of reform.
On the other hand, there is some fear that the
landslide may lead De Gaulle and his associates to
lose sight of the fact that they have not dealt with
the grievances of substantial and volatile segments
of the population.
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Nonproliferation Treaty: Joint US and Soviet
efforts on t e nonproliferation treaty (NPT) reach
a climax today when at least 45 nations will sign
it at ceremonies in Washington, Moscow, and London.
Since the draft treaty was endorsed on 12 June
by the UN General Assembly, the US and USSR have
worked to assure as many signatures as possible on
the opening date. According to its terms, the
treaty enters into force after signing and ratifica-
tion by the
governments
of
the
three
supporting nu-
clear powers
countries.
(US, USSR,
and
UK)
and
40
non-nuclear
As many as 30 or more not signing on 1 July
may become signatories by early August. None of
the Euratom countries will sign on 1 July because
they are awaiting an opinion from the European com-
mission on the compatibility of the NPT with the
Euratom treaty. Italy, furthermore, plans to seek
some form of parliamentary approval before signing,
owing to the tenuousness of its government. Other
nations, such as Canada and Sweden, expect to sign
later, but government machinery has made it impos-
sible by 1 July.
Neither Communist China nor France, the other
two nuclear powers, will sign the treaty. Among
important non-nuclear countries not prepared to sign
at the moment are Australia, India, Pakistan, Indo-
nesia, Japan, South Africa, Brazil., and Chile.
On 16 July, the Eighteen Nation Disarmament
Committee reconvenes in Geneva. This body, under
the joint chairmanship of the US and USSR, drafted
the NPT. US and Soviet representatives are again
expected to work closely together on matters related
to arms limitation when the committee reconvenes.
One possible topic for consideration is limitn.ntion-s
on military uses of the seabeds.
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Poland: The regime is slowly revealing the
extent of its countermeasures against students in-
volved in the youth unrest last March.
At a session on 26 June of the parliamentary
commission on education and science, Deputy Education
Minister Michajlow revealed that "disciplinary proce-
dures" were instituted against 424 students, of whom
111 have been "temporarily" suspended. Disposition
Qf the remainder of the cases is still pending, and
probably includes a small number of student leaders
whose trials reportedly will come in the near future.
The regime probably intends to hold these trials dur-
ing the summer out of public view.
No totals for arrests and trials have been made
public. On 19 March, party boss Gomulka stated that
up to that time 1,208 persons had been arrested, only
367 of them being students. The remainder, generally
identified as "hooligans" and other "misguided ele-
ments," evidently are not included in the currently
published information. The data made public by
Michajlow also does not take into account the more
than 1,600 Warsaw University students who were required
to re-register. This screening process so far has
resulted in the expulsion of about 73 students.
Measures against the academic staff of higher
schools have been rapid. Influential liberal profes-
sors and other academicians, many of them Jews, already
have been purged. Organizational changes, especially
at the universities, are also being considered. It
is likely that Warsaw University's philosophy faculty,
long viewed by the regime as a hotbed of dissent, will
be closed.
The regime also has officially introduced plans
for abolishing the traditional system of professional
chairs at the universities, which had up to now per-
mitted a significant degree of autonomy to professors
1 Jul 68 5
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holding these positions. Despite some recent oppo-
sition in the press to this proposal, it and other
measures to strengthen centralized control over teach-
ing and the academic staff may be implemented before
the opening of the schools this fall.
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Egypt-USSR: During Nasir's visit to Moscow,
which begins Thursday, talks will likely center on
the continuing stalemate in the Middle East situa-
tion. The state of the Jarring mission and possible
courses of action in the United Nations will proba-
ble be high on the list of topics under discussion
between Nasir and Soviet leaders. Nasir's four-day
trip, his first visit to the Soviet Union since
1965, will also include a stopover in Belgrade for
discussions with Tito. F_ I
Philippines:
For sev-
eral years the Huks appeared largely to have aban-
doned ideological dedication in favor of profitable
racketeering
Overt terrorism by the small Huk movement has
diminished in recent months, possibly because of
the death of several group commanders in clashes
with police. The Huks, however, continue to exert
considerable political influence in their operations
area north of :Zanila.
(continued)
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Uruguay: In an effort to curb the rate of in-
flation, President Pacheco on Friday decreed rigor-
ous controls on wages and prices. The decree will
face many challenges. The Communist labor unions,
already engaged in a series of strikes protesting
government economic policies, will be even more
intransigent. Furthermore, congress might override
the President. Late on Thursday, Communists in
congress succeeded in sidetracking approval of the
state-of-siege decree of 13 June, even though
Pacheco had lined up a majority of the legislators
behind it.
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