CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A009000330001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 22, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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22 April 1955

I

Copy' No. 94

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DIA, DOS and JCS
review(s)
completed.

CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

DOCUMENT NO../'~ -,'~
NO CHANGE IN CLASS, ~
[J DECLASSIFIED
CLASS, CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _~]/O
AUTH: HR 70-2

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Office of Current Intelligence

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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SUMMARY

FAR F. AST

2o Ogata seen replacing Hatoyama by July (page 3)�

SOUTHEAST ASIA
3, [IV(et Minh strength in south (pa~e 4)�
I
o. ~;omment on A~ro-Aszan conference aevetopments (page

� $O~H ~

6. ~ghan ~ng reported seek~g to rep~ce Prime Minister Daud
(page ~)~

NE~ E~T - AFRICA

7.. Comment on growing rif~ in Syrian army ~age 8)~

. E~TERN EUROPE

8, East German cattle epidemic apparently not rinderpest ~age 8)0

WE~E~ EUROPE

9, .Bo~ may ease pressure on East ~rmany for truck ~x repeal
(page 9)~

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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 11)

22 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2

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FAR EAST

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2. Ogata seen replacing Hatoyama by July:

Democratic Party secretary general Kishi
is confident that plans to replace Prime
Minister Hatoyama by Taketora Ogata,
former deputy prime minister and presi-
dent of the opposition Liberal Party; will be carried out following
passage of the budget in late June or Julyo Kishi told the Ameri-
can embassy that he has been entrusted with negotiations calling
for at least a partial merger of the conservative parties, with new
elections held in abeyance until the election laws have been amended
to undercut the left.

22 Apr.55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3

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If Ogat~'s 30-odd followers join the new
party~ Kishi believes~ an additional 40 "neutrals" among the Lib-
erals would follow, thereby assuring the party of a Diet majority.

Comment: .Events thus far have reflected
Kishi's influence and strategy t~ '~'-remarkable extent. His plans,
as revealed in considerable detail to the embassy last December,
entail the replacement of Ogata and the old politicians by a younger~
more dynamic set of leaders by 1957.

� The reported willingness of Hatoyama and
his top lieutenant, Bukichl Mild, to retire will greatly increase
Ogata's prospects. Mild had previously opposed Kishi's efforts
.toward a'Democratic-Liberal merger.

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SOUTHEAST ASIA

IViet. ~iinh Strengd:h in south:

Vier Minh strength south of the demarca-
tion line is concentrated largely in the
Kontum, Phan Thiet and Ca Mau areas
and small scattered sections of Cochin~
china~ including the Plaine des JOncs~
I(See map~ po 5). The equivalent of about nine
battalions--some 5~000 troops--are demobilized and scattered in
small outlaw bands~ and the Vier Mirth is principally engaged in
political activity and propaganda.

With Uttle paramilitary activity now go-
ing on, the problem of ,eradicating Vier Mirth elements is primarily
one of establishing an effective civil government. In the NI~ Trang
area~ however, I ]disputes
between Vietnamese military and civil authorities have resulted in
limiting civil authority to an area not more than three miles beyond
the town limits�[ lif South Vietnam villagers
could be assurea of an effective administration and protection, they
would volunteer information on arms caches and individual agita,
tOrSoI

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[

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A )roved
tOO

I/

.uang Prabang

Muang Loei

INDOCHINA

21 April 1955

.Area of Vier
Mirth strength

THAIL

Reap

PHNOM PENH

.... International boundary

(~) National capital
----+--~---- Selected railroad
------ Serected mad

Scale 1:?,500, aa0
Ol~t ~0' 47 8,0 1 ~20 Miles
0 20 40 8'0 l~OKilameters

N

A

OF

line

Quang Ng~

Ji Nhon
g Cau

PLAINly'DEs joNIS

?LES
~O~POU LO CONDORE

Base 12516 11-53

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5. Comment on Afros. Asian conference developments:

'The Bandung meeting has thus far been
marked by strong anti-Communist~ anti-
neutralist activities of pro-Western del-
egates both in plenary and closed sesslonSo In addition to making
hard. hitting speeches, these delegates have repeatedly thwarted
or amended objectionable proposals introduced in the various com-
mitteeso

In contrast, Communist China's Chou
~n-lai has assumed an attitude of "sweet reasonableness? while
Nehru and the other neutrals have been forced into the background�
Both Chou and Nehru~ however~ are showing signs of growing irri-
tation~ and a showdown may be imminent, as the important political
committee--composed of ail chief delegates-=moves to consider the
matter of "coexistence?'

Chou and. Nehru are telling the conference
that coexistence of countries having different social systems is pos=
sible~ while the pro-Westerners maintain that coexistence is a myth
as long as Communism retains its expansionist ambitions� This

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debate is likely to determine 'whether the conference will break up
on a controversial note or conclude with reasonable grace� It now
seems apparent that no anti-Western resolutions will be adopted.
I

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o

Afghan king reported seeking to replace Prime Minister Daud:
~g~nistan's former prime minister Shah
IMahmud on 15 April accepted a request
IoI King. Zahir Shah, his nephew~ that he
Ireassume the premiership~ I I
Ithe delay in
announcing Mahmud's appointment may be due to the king's desire
to await the end of the Bandung conference�

IDeputy Prime
Minister Al! Mohammad had four times refused Zahir's offer of the

premiership�

Ithe king will probably replace

Prime Minister Daud with.Defense Minister General Mohammad
Arifo I

� ' .Comment: [ [
the king is actively seeking to repI~ce Prime Minister D~ud, rather
tha~ merely to disclpUne him and leave him in office.

.An immediate major change in the govern-
ment might compromise the status of 'the Afghan delegation at Ban,
dung. Zahir might well desire, to have� Foreign Minister Naim and
� other influential members of the delegation in Kabul when any such
change occurs�

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NEAR EAST - AFRICA

7 �Comment on growing rift in Syrian army:

Shuqayr's Le~l~nese ~.
diCtator Shishakli, he is not popular� [
80 percent of the officer corps o.ppose Shuqayr.,

Opponents in Syria's army of Chief of Staff
Shawkat Shuqayr--a key supporter of
the present anti-Western government--
are organizing against him,[ [
gi[n /Because of
'i ana earner connecuons w~th former

Meanwhile Shuqayr. is taking steps to
rid the army of pro-Iraqi officers� [
s~ehe will dismiss Brigade Commander Mahmud Shawkat~ con-
red the leader of the pro-Iraqi faction in the army~ whose
dismissal probably would be strongly opposed.

Shuqayr currently holds the upper hand.
If he persists in his present course~ however, he may unify the
factionalized officer corps against him. His overthrow would
jeopardize the present government because its continuance in of-
rice depends on military support�

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� EASTERN EUROPE

East German cattle epidemic apparently not rinderpest:

West German examination of meat im-
ported from East Germany, where a
rinderpest outbreak has been suspected~
gave no indication of rinderpest infec-
tiono Careful investigations have shown that diseased animals
had been eating "igelite" binder twine with their fodder� This
twine contains tricresyl phosphate~ which is toxic and apparently
produces a rinderpest-like disease in cattle�

Comment: [ [provides a logi-
cal explanation for the un~~-'~r6ak of cattle disease which
reportedly has been occurring in East Germany since August 1954o

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As recently as 13 April, however, an
.East German broadcast indicated that the government is con.
tinuing to follow a previously established propaganda line in
which "American agents" are being blamed for the disease out-
break� This serves the purpose of concealing the inadvertent
use of a toxic substance in a binder twine and provides a partial
explanation for the critical East German meat shortage�
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WESTERN EUROPE

Bonn may ease pressure
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on East Germany fOr .truck tax .repeal:

A West German trade official told Ambas.
sador Conant on 20 April that Bonn could
not hold out much longer against the grow~.
ing pressure from business interests to

release the huge backlog of export licenses held up since 1 April in
reta!~_~_tion against the East German .tax on Berlin'truckingo

The official argued that a general trade
.embargo would hurt West Germany more than East Germany~ and
that a .selective embargo and administrative slowdowns were more
practical measures. He feared that East Germany might Cut off
deliveries of brown coal to West Berlin and west Germany in retal-
iation for Bonn's refusal to deliver iron and steel�

He termed the East German action a clear
violation of the 1949 four-power agreements on access to Berlin, and
said that the next move on the truck tax question is up to the Allies�

Comment: Two Western notes of protest
to Soviet ambassador Pushkin in East Berlin have been ignored and
the Allies are now planning a demarche directly to Moscow.

22 Apr 55

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THE FORMOSA STRAITS

Report of the lAC Current IntelUgence Group
for the Formosa. Straits Problem

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This report is based on information received in Washing[on
up to 1100 hours 21 April 1955o

1, The over-all rating of the Chinese Nationalist defense
preparations on the Matsu Island .Group is "satisfactory." This
rating was the result of a series of combat readiness tests com-
pleted on 15 April by a team from MAAG (Formosa).

The series of tests did~ however, note some serious
weaknesses including the seriously understreng[h regiment garri-
soning the Paichuan (White Dog) Group, 12 miles south of Ma~su,
the inexperience of the division staff garrisoning the Matsu Group,
and the slowness of Ministry of National Defense augmentation of
MAAG recommendations for increased weapons.

Other inspections of the offshore islands have shown
that morale of the regular troops is generally high but the morale
of the guerrillas is very lOWo The situation on Wuchiu~ midway be-
tween Matsu and ~emoy, which is garrisoned by 600 guerrillas, is
so bad that MAAG has recommended that it be garrisoned by regu-
lar troops or abandoned. I

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Chienou '
Hsiapu
.~ Taishan

{anping �