CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A005400390001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 15, 1960
• Content Type: REPORT

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15 December 1960
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
15 December 1960
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
Iran,. [The Shah's action in publicly labeling interna'
tional oil prorationing "a nice theory but unrealistic in
practice" and his demand that Iran produce at least 50 per-
cent of the annual growth in Middle East oil output will
probably prevent the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) from developing into an effective force
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in the near future, Without Iranian participation the scheme
of Saudi oil boss Abdullah Tariki and Venezuelan Oil Minis-
ter Perez Alfonzo for limiting, oil production, world-wide
sharing of markets, and price maintenance is unworkable.
The Shah's statements reflect his irritation at Tarikils and 25X1
Alfonzols efforts to dominate OPEC as well as his hopes that
Iran will receive preferential treatment by the oil companies
at the expense of the Arab Pr ~ducers.7F
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*Ethiopia.- LA group of security and Imperial Bodyguard
officers apparently has staged a successful coup against the
regime of Emperor Haile Selassie Crown Prince Asfa Wossen
has announced his willingness to serve as a salaried head of
state in a constitutional monarchy and has promised to speed
the modernization of the country's feudal society. Although the
Crown Prince is known to favor a liberalization of the regime,
there are some indications that he has been subjected to duress,
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by the coup's engineers, headed by Director of Security
Lt, Col. Workeneh Gabeyhouj
The 6,000-man Bodyguard is in full control of key points
in Addis Ababa, and most of the influential palace advisors
apparently are under arrest. The 25,000-man regular army--
only one battalion of which is stationed in the, capital city has
taken no definite position concerning the coup,Cand there are
indications that its leaders are split on the question. The US
Air Attache reports that Armed Forces Chief of Staff Merid
ordered two divisions to prepare for movement to the Addis
Ababa area, and a clash between these units and the Bodyguard
could occur at any time. The Bodyguard reportedly is arming
civilians with automatic weapons
The coup's leaders have set up a new government and have
stated that their regime will be pro-Western and will honor all
international commitments. Despite their initial success, they
face formidable difficulties in extending their control beyond the
Addis Ababa area in the face of opposition from powerful local
leaders and from some elements of the army. The Emperor,
who has left Brazil headed for Ethiopia, remains the only
personage drawing his support from all important elements
of the disparate Ethiopian population, and he may still be
able to mobilize the opposition to the coup.
France -Algeria: The Algerian rioting seems not to have
deterred President De Gaulle from his intention to press his
self-determination policy for Algeria. His next public state-
ment on the situation now is expected soon after today's cabinet
meeting. French officials are taking the line that only minority
elements of the European and Moslem communities were in-
volved in the rioting. Although the government's roundup of
both European and Moslem riot ringleaders is designed to under-
score this view, continued."firing on Moslem demonstrators by
15 Dee 60
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DAILY BRIEF iii
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French security forces further reduces the possibility of
the peaceful Moslem-settler relationshi
hi
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e
aulle
s
Algerian policy requires. There is no evidence that the
FLN fomented the Moslem demonstrations but its 20 nfC
cu or he Communist par y is reported planning
by its anti.-US and pro-Soviet public statements.
(Page 5)
extensive campaign to nullify the boundary settlement since
it took office last September, has encouraged such outbreaks
continued violent agitation against the US on the issue of
the 1942 boundary settlement with Peru which the US and
other guarantor powers reaffirmed on 7 December. The
demonstrations on 12 and 13 December against US instal-
lations in Guayaquil, Quito, and other cities--following
similar violence against the US Consulate in Guayaquil
and against the embassy in Quito on 9 December--are
apparently connected with initial moves in the Communist
plan. The Velasco government, which has carried out an
IV. WATCH COMMITTEE CONCLUSIONS
A. o Sino-Soviet bloc country intends to initiate hostilities
against the United States or its possessions in the im-
mediate future,
B. GNo Sino-Soviet bloc country intends deliberately to initiate
direct military action against US forces abroad, US allies,
or areas peripheral to the bloc in the immediate future.j
C. LT he formation of a new pro-Western government in Laos,
together with Phoumi's success in securing substantial
control of Vientiane (excluding the airfield and other
pockets), greatly increases the probability of agressive
Pathet Lao hostile activity throughout the country. The '
15 Dec 60 DAILYBRIEF iv
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& ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 a R 10 M I M M MR/I
 G ommunist bloc has substantially increased its delivery
capabilities further to assist the Kong Le/Pathet Lao
forces to meet developments
D. Other developments affording increased opportunities
for exploitation by the Communist :bloc
ETHIOPIA The Ethiopian coup which was launched in
the absence of Emperor Haile Selassie in
Brazil, appears to have as its objective
the establishment of a pro-Western consti-
tutional monarchy, which the Crown Prince
possibly under duress, has agreed to head.
No immediate Sino-Soviet bloc reaction has
been forthcoming, and no signs of bloc
involvement are yet apparent. The Imperial
Bodyguard appears to have the upper hand;
the attitude of the army is not clear. Discussions
between these two military elements are in
progress apparently in an effort to avoid
civi
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Shah's Views eaken
dIn a recent interview the Shah of Iran publicly denounced in-
ternational prorationing--a scheme whereby Iran and the major
Arab oil producers would limit production, share markets, and
thus maintain high prices--as a "nice theory but unrealistic in
practice." This action will probably prevent the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from developing into an
effective anti-industry force in the near future.]
'Set up only last September, largely through the efforts of
Saudi oil boss Abdullah Tariki and Venezuela's Minister of
Mines and Hydrocarbons Juan Perez Alfonzo, OPEC has five
members- -Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela--
which account for about 80 percent of the free world's oil re-
serves and more than two thirds of the oil moving in interna-
tional trade. OPEC has serious structural and conceptual weak-
nesses which reduce its threat to the international oil industry;
however, active Iranian participation would have confronted the
industry with at least apparent unity among Middle East produc-
er
LThe Shah's statements were probably sparked by his growing
irritation at Tariki's and Perez Alfonzo's efforts to dominate
OPEC and their many recent statements suggesting that Iran had
agreed to limit production, share increasing production gains
with Arab states, and share markets. He has also become in-
creasingly aware that Iran's best hopes for rapid increases in
revenues rest with winning preferential treatment from the oil
companies at the expense of its Arab neighbors. In addition to
dismissing prorationing, the Shah noted that Iran should receive
at least half of the annual increase in Middle East oil production
and should return to.its pre-1951 position of accounting for 60
percent of the area's output. Presently, Iran's 1,011,000 barrels-a-
day crude production. is less than 22 percent of the total)
It is also doubtful Kuwait will cooperate fully with the
members of OPEC.
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The UAR, miffed at having been left out of
OPEC in order to assure Iranian membership, probably would
welcome a breakdown of that organization and a return of Arab
oil policy matters to the Arab League, in which Cairo has the
dominant voice. F- I
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Anti-US Violence in Ecuador
Ecuador's small Communist party is reported planning
extensive exploitation of anti-US sentiment in. Ecuador by at-
tempting to place. sole responsibility on the. US for the 7 De-
cember declaration by the guarantor powers upholding the
validity of the 1942 Rio Protocol, The guarantor powers are
the US, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, and. the protocol, which
provides for a definitive settlement of the 140-year-old bound-
ary dispute with Peru, grants a favorable territorial award
to the latter. Since taking office last September, President
Velasco's government has carried out an extensive campaign
to nullify the treaty. This campaign has had virtually unan-
imous public support.
Demonstrations on 12. and 13 December against various
US installations in Guayaquil, Quito, and. other provincial
cities included several insults to the US flag. These demon-
strations followed similar violence against the US Consulate
General in Guayaquil and the US Embassy in Quito on .9 Decem-
ber. This unrest is apparently connected with the initial of -
fort to carry out the Communist plan. Additional anti-US out-
breaks are likely.
The Ecuadorean Government has encouraged such outbreaks
by provocative public statements and possibly other means. Man-
uel Araujo, the anti-US and pro-Castro minister of government
who controls the police and is responsible for maintenance of
civil order, has declared in recent speeches: "If Soviet guns
are needed to defend our country, let them come" "If circum-
stances make it necessary to seek aid from Russia, we will ally
ourselves with. Russia!'
The Velasco regime is also resorting to a variety of extrem-
ist threats designed to neutralize the guarantor statement and
win official and popular support for its cause in the hemisphere.
These threats include the establishment of closer ties with Cuba
and diplomatic relations with the USSR and China and withdrawal
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from the Organization of American States. Foreign Min-
ister Chiriboga, who has teamed with Velasco in leading
Ecuador's attacks on the protocol; advised Ambassador
Bernbaum on 10 December that the declaration had crys-
tallized the efforts of the vice president, Araujo, and other
cabinet members to eliminate "excessive dependence on. the
US" and seek relations with the USSR and China-' ,In a 10 De-
cember public statement apparently timed, to reinforce such
threats, Chiriboga announced that Czechoslovakia would soon
reopen its legation in Quito, which was closed by the pred-
ecessor administration in 1957;, and. that Ecuador would es-
tablish a mission of equal rank in Prague in January. I
The Ecuadorean military, who realize Peru's marked mil-
itary superiority and are politically hostile toward Araujo, are
a potentially moderating influence on Velasco. In Peru, where
official and public opinion was elated over the guarantor decla-
ration, the army is sending reinforcements to the border area,
including 12 tanks--probably as precaution against the outbreak
of an armed conflict. W or Peruvian fleet elements have also
sailed northward.
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Director, Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization
Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary of State for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
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