CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A003400280001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 5, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

TOP SECRET
2003/01/29: CIA-RDP79
5 December 1957
Copy No.
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
Zoe
BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
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DATE.
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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7 State Dept. review completed
TOP SECRET
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CONTENTS
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1. BRITAIN'S TROOP REDUCTION THREAT
(page 3).
2. FRENCH NUCLEAR TEST MAY BE IMMINENT
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3. NEW COMMUNIST THEORETICAL JOURNAL TO BE
ESTABLISHED
5. JAPAN AND USSR TO SIGN TRADE PACT
(page 7).
6. EARLY DISSOLUTION OF JAPANESE DIET EXPECTED
8. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS TO CONCENTRATE
ON ECONOMIC AUTONOMY
(_I? _ 9. SOVIET OIL OFFER TO IRAN REPORTED
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11. BRAZIL CONCERNED OVER COMMUNIST BLOC OFFENSIVE
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1. BRITAIN'S TROOP REDUCTION THREAT
ritain's statements in the WEU and
ATO councils on 3 December appear
lesigned to play on Continental con-
ern that Britain may withdraw all its
roops from Europe. London presumably
hopes to bring pressure to bear on West
Germany to continue payments to defray
ocal costs of British troops in Germany.
Britain formally stated that it intends to
retain a 55,000-man force if acceptable financial arrange-
ments can be made; if not, the "whole question of the num-
ber of troops" will have to be reconsidered. In response to
a Dutch question, the British WEU representative stated that
this reconsideration would apply not just to the 5,000-man
strategic reserve contingent, but to the full number of troops.
In invoking special WEU and NATO provisions concerning fi-
nancial distress connected with stationing forces in member
countries, Britain asked for a decision on financial arrange-
ments by mid-January 1958 for budget planning purposes.
This British approach will probably mar
the 16-18 December NATO meetings. Continental suspicions
that London plans to play an independent 'role have been fed in
the past year by difficulties over Britain's proposed European
free trade area and by London's initial troop reduction plans
outlined last March. Indirectly these doubts contribute to
anxiety over the continuation of the American military commit-
ment in Europe--a concern shared by Britain.
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2. FRENCH NUCLEAR TEST MAY BE IMMINENT
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The president of the French National
Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee,
Maurice Schumann, commenting on
2 December on a recent newspaper re-
port that France has already tested a nuclear weapon in the
Sahara, stated he did not know "definitely" whether the re-
port is true but in any case is certain that "it soon will be"
Schumann added that "equality of rights" among the NATO
allies requires a nuclear capability for Europe as well as
the United States and Britain. He predicted "intolerable
strains" in the alliance otherwise.
Schumann's demand for a European nu-
clear capability is the strongest in a series of official
French efforts to impress the United States with France's
unwillingness to be excluded from making nuclear weapons.
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3. NEW COMMUNIST THEORETICAL JOURNAL
TO BE ESTABLISHED
Friedrich Ebert, an East German politburo member and
mayor of East Berlin, to a conference of the East German
SED (Communist) party. Ebert's remarks that this was
one of a number of suggestions for "systematic close co-
operation" among Communist parties suggest, that'the -
East Germans and possibly other bloc parties had pressed
for more far-reaching measures, such as the creation of a
new international Communist organization.
Prior to the meeting, numerous reports
pointed to the possibility that some type of international
Communist organization would be revived and that a theo-
retical journal would be re-established as means of co-
ordinating the views of the Communist parties throughout
the world. Instead of a new organization, the 12-nation
Communist policy declaration of 21.November stated that
"in present conditions it is expedient" to hold bilateral and
multilateral conferences as a means of coordinating views and
policies
A decision to establish a new theoret-
ical journal of the international Com-
munist movement was made at the
recent high-level Communist meeting
in Moscow, according to a speech by
There are indications of disagreement
over the new publication which may be one reason why the
1.2-nation declaration contained no mention of a journal.
the
Polish party is not expected to participate in the work of the
new journal. the Yugoslavs have refused
and that the Italian Communists are reluctant to take part.
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5. JAPAN AND USSR TO SIGN TRADE PACT
Japanese and Soviet trade officials, after
three months of negotiations which resulted
in compromises on both sides, on 6 Decem-
ber are to sign the first postwar trade and
payments agreement between their countries. The agreement,
of one year's duration but renewable annually, anticipates. trade
of approximately $30,000,000 each way, which is about ten times
Soviet-Japanese trade in 1956. Although trade has been expand-
ing during the past year, the goal may not be reached within the
first year of the agreement.
be achieved.
Included in the over-all arrangements are a
commercial treaty which lists items to be traded, an agreement
to exchange trade missions with limited diplomatic privileges,
and a most-favored-nation clause. Trade accounts are to be set-
tled in pounds sterling, although the Japanese acceded to a Soviet
request that individual barter transactions be permitted.
The Soviet negotiators showed particular in-
terest in Japanese heavy industrial products, which are featured
in the proposed trade list, but Moscow has consented to respect
Japan's adherence to COCOM regulations. The USSR will prob-
ably try to implement fully its side of the agreements in order to
bolster its claim that an eventual $500,000,000 trade turnover can
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6. EARLY DISSOLUTION OF JAPANESE DIET EXPECTED
Foreign Minister Fujiyama and other
informed political observers have told
Ambassador MacArthur that Prime Min-
ister Kishi may soon dissolve the lower
house; of the Diet and call an election. Campaigning already
under way by some Socialist and conservative Diet members
appears to support Fujiyama's forecast. MacArthur believes
that Kishi might order the dissolution when the Diet convenes
on 20 December or when it resumes business in late January
after the holiday recess.
Kishits apparent success in reaching a
reparations agreement with Indonesia during his recent
visit to Djakarta may increase his prestige and incline him
toward an early election. Kishi may also be influenced by
pressure within the conservative party to call an election to
curb the rising power of Ichiro Mono, the strong man of the
Hatoyama cabinet.
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8. INDONESIAN DISSIDENT LEADERS TO CONCENTRATE
ON ECONOMIC AUTONOMY
forts to effect changes in the Djakarta government and in
Sukarno's policies, and to bring former Vice President Hatta
back to an official position. The commander of South Sumatra,
Lt. Col. Barlian, allegedly foresees an initial reconstruction
period lasting until 1959 and believes time is on the side of the
dissidents.
Disaffected Indonesian regional leaders
view the current national reconstruction
conference in Djakarta as of little value
and will return to their provinces deter-
mined to concentrate their efforts on lo-
cal reconstruction and economic develop-
ment,
They are temporarily dropping eir el-
Regional concentration on economic auton-
omy would worsen the central government's economic position,
already threatened by a rupture of economic relations with the
Dutch. There is, therefore, a growing danger that Djakarta
will turn increasingly to the bloc for assistance, a move that
would aggravate the regions' general dissatisfaction.
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9. SOVIET OIL OFFER TO IRAN REPORTED
the USSR is
prepared to sign an oil agreement which
would give Iran more than 75 percent of the profits and as-
sure it a Soviet market,
joint development of border rivers.
soon to implement the preliminary agreement concluded on
The USSR has made a number of infor-
mal offers of large-scale economic assistance which the Iran-
ian government has turned aside. Iranian officials have
claimed that new Soviet economic proposals are received
"every day:'
Negotiations are at
present under way in a ran tor n u n of a civil air agree-
ment, and a Soviet survey team is scheduled to arrive in Tehran
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11. BRAZIL CONCERNED OVER COMMUNIST 25X1A
BLOC OFFENSIVE
A high-ranking official in the Brazilian
Foreign Ministry has asked US assist-
ance in assessing the implications of the
Soviet bloc's new economic and diplomatic
offensive in Brazil. He said he hopes to
convince President Kubitschek that the bloc's objectives are
basically subversive, but he fears the government will be un-
der increasing pressure to accept economic development of-
fers at face value.
Several bloc countries have offered to help
alleviate Brazil's foreign exchange crisis and to participate in
its five-year development program by accepting coffee and
other surplus products in exchange for heavy equipment and
complete industrial installations. While Brazilian officials
are undoubtedly tempted by some of these offers, they are
also aware that the bloc would probably try to resell some of
these commodities in Brazil's regular European markets, and
they probably fear that there would be delivery problems on
installations as extensive as those being offered.
There is some evidence that Brazil is util-
izing these offers to solicit increased US interest in its eco-
nomic problems. Brazil has been agitating for increased de-
velopmental credits from the US and may soon request financ-
ing for its rising trade and payments deficit.
The bloc offensive--together with the psy-
chological impact of Soviet scientific achievements--has al-
ready subjected the politically weak Kubitschek government
to heavy pressure from powerful nationalist groups in congress
and has substantially aided the Communist party in its cam-
paign to regain legal status and respectability.
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