CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A002900280001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 17, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 18, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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18 January 1957
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Copy No.
131
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
I I DEeULAS.O.!i-ALD
AUTH: FIR 70-2
DINE) ' fEVIEWER
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Dept. review completed
TOP SECRET
2002/10/21 : CIA-RDP79
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CONTENTS
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2. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
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5. ISHIBASHI BLOCKS INCREASE OF JAPANESE GROUND
FORCES IN 1957
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6. RUMANIA MAY NOT PERMIT US OBSERVERS AT FEBRUARY
ELECTIONS
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ANNEX- -Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
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2. SITUATION IN INDONESIA
President Sukarno's ability to carry out
his plan to set up an "advisory council"
to govern Indonesia under his direction
depends on the support or resistance ac-
corded him by the army and the major
political parties.
The political parties will probably oppose
the plan as unconstitutional, while bar-
gaining with Sukarno over their role in the new organization,
but most of the major ones probably will ultimately support
him. Army chief of staff Nasution, who appears to control
major army factions, reportedly has "reached agreement"
with Sukarno on "solving the country's problems.
The outlying provinces, which have long
opposed centralized control, might resist strongly such an
assertion of one-man rule in Djakarta, possibly even to the
point of withdrawal from the republic.
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5.. ISHIBASHI BLOCKS INCREASE OF JAPANESE
GROUND FORCES IN 1957
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Prime Minister Ishibashi told Ambassa-
dor Allison on 16 January that it was
impossible for political reasons to pro-
vide funds for any increase in Japan's
group torces auring 1957. Ishibashi stated, however, that
personnel increases requested for the air and naval forces
would be granted and that the budget for 1958 would provide
for a 10,000-man increase in the ground forces.
Ishibashi noted that increases in other
categories of military expenditures and the utilization of
funds carried over from fiscal 1956 would actually make
defense spending greater in 1957 than in the previous year.
Comment The prospect of a general election this
year probably is an important factor in
determining Ishibashi's position. This possibility places
defense expenditures at a disadvantage in competing with
such politically attractive fiscal policies as tax reduction
and welfare measures.
Japan's defense build-up has received in-
creasing criticism from elements in the government party
and the opposition for alleged overemphasis on ground forces.
Ishibashi himself has publicly stated he favors "quality over
quantity" and that he would place greater emphasis on modern-
izing the defense forces.
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6. RUMANIA MAY NOT PERMIT US OBSERVERS AT
FEBRUARY ELECTIONS
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Rumanian deputy foreign minister
Lazareanu has told the American am-
bassador in Bucharest he person-
ally doubts that his government will
now permit the visit of Americans invited to observe the
Rumanian national elections scheduled for 3 February.
Lazareanu claimed that American government- sponsored
attacks on Rumania through the Voice of America and
Radio Free Europe and public statements by members of
the US government had caused the deterioration of the rela-
tively friendly US-Rumanian relations of last fall. He
charged that Americans had endangered Rumanian internal
security not only by inciting ]Hungarians to revolt on the
Rumanian-Hungarian borders but also by making state-
ments calculated to incite Rumanians to revolt against their
own government.
Comment The Rumanian Foreign. Ministry invitation
of 5 October, issued just before talks be-
gan with the US concerning long-standing problems between
the two countries, was in reciprocation for invitations to ob-
serve the American elections. Lazareanu's statements are
symptomatic of the generally stiffened line toward the US in
all of the Satellites.
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ANNEX
Watch Report 337, 17 January 1957
of the
Intelligence Advisory Committee
Conclusions on Indications of Hostilities
On the basis of findings by its Watch Committee the
Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in the
immediate future.
B. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against US forces abroad, US allies or areas periph-
eral to the Orbit in the immediate future.
C. A deliberate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is
improbable in the immediate future.
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