CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A001300290001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 15, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT W. NO CHANGE N Ct.ASS. ---
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: .P UJ O 9
AUTH:
DATE:
HR 70-2
REVIEWER:
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DOS REVIEW
COMPLETED Offi
DIA review(s)
CENTRA
ce of Current Intelli
L INTELLIGENCE
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AGENCY
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completed
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SUMMARY.
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GENERAL
it. British and French views on Trieste solution (page 3).
1;' Tito regarded as defending personal and party prestige in Trieste
.,stand (page 3).
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ugoslav military moves in
Trieste area (page .
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Preparations for large-scale Viet Minh operations against
outhern Tonkin delta reported (page 5).
Army uprising in Indonesia possible (page 6).
NEAR EAST -AFRICA
M Israeli prime minister reportedly may resin (uac~e 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
France considering proposal for security guarantee to USSR
(page 7).
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GENERAL
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1. British and French views on Trieste solution:
The British Foreign Office believes that
d emilitarization of both zones of the Free
Territory of Trieste might afford Tito a
way out and facilitate an agreement. A
responsible French Foreign Ministry official
stated that it was difficult to see how Zone A
could be turned over to the Italians unless
some demilitarization formula for both zones
could be worked out.
The British Foreign Office holds the pre-
liminary view that if the, conference proposed
by the Yugoslavs proves advisable, it should probably include France
and must aim at a solution of the whole Trieste problem rather than
just the prevention of hostilities. Meanwhile, Ambassador Luce
reports that obtaining Italian concurrence to a conference would be
difficult in face of the diplomatic victory Premier Pella is claiming,
and that such a conference could not be held until the Italians had
assumed at least administrative control of Zone A.
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2. Tito regarded as defending personal and party prestige in Trieste
stand:
According to the American charge in Belgrade,
the Anglo-American decision on Trieste
seriously involved the prestige of the
Yugoslav regime and Tito personally,
and Tito 's reactions have been designed to protect at all costs
his position as a national symbol. The charge points out that
similar circumstances emboldened Tito in 1946 "to defy what in
his eyes must have been an even more formidable power complex."
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4. ugoslav military moves in
Trieste area:
The Yugoslav assistant military attache
in Rome has told an American official that three additional
divisions, one naval and one air unit have been ordered to posi-
tions along the Yugoslav zonal boundary.
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Comment; By closing the zonal boundary,
Yugoslavia has prevented conf irmation of reports of military strength
increases in Zone B of,Trieste. However, observations by American
officials tend to support reports that reinforcements have been moved
into the frontier area.
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
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5. Preparations for large-scale Viet Minh operations against southern
Tonkin delta reported:
Viet Minh civil authorities in the area
around the southern edge of the Tonkin
delta have decreed a state of alert on
important roads leading toward the delta,
a possible indication that pre-
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Meanwhile, the Viet Minh 320th Division,
located in this area, reportedly engaged in reconnaissance opera-
tions with some elements believed to be active inside the French
defense perimeter.
Comment: Two regular enemy divisions
and elements of a third are stationed just south of the delta. Recent
reports of their activities have been conflicting, but seem to indicate
that for the present they have been assigned the dual mission of de-
fending the area against possible French attack and infiltrating elements
into the delta.
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Recent French operations to counter expanded
Viet Minh guerrilla warfare in the southern part of the delta have met
with only limited success and at the cost of heavy casualties.
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Army uprising in Indonesia possible.,
Government plans to remove the Indonesian
armed forces chief of staff, General Simatupang,
and make changes in army territorial districts
that would reduce the strength of certain anti-
Communist territorial commanders have caused
r stn ension:.in Indonesia,
sponst a or the demonstrations of a year ago is likely if the government
carries out its plans.
I "action" by the anti-Communist elements in the army re-
Comment. On 13 October the American
naval attache reported in orf-mate n
that Simatupang's post was to be abolished and that his duties would
be assumed by the leftist minister of defense, who has studied in
Moscow. Communist sympathizers, who dominate the present
government, have long sought the moderate Simatupang's removal.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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7. Israeli prime minister reportedly may resin.,
Widespread speculation that Israeli prime
minister Ben-Gurion will resign is given substance by statements
made to the American charge by the director general of the Foreign
Ministry. Local press releases on this subject seem to have some
official inspiration and it appears that there has been serious cabinet
disagreement, possibly involving Israel's military policy.
. Ben-Gurion has been on vacation since
19 July. He is politically vulnerable on the charge that his pro-
Western attitude has not solved Israeli problems and that the
present state of relations with the United States represents the
failure of his policy. Moreover, many of Israel's military leaders
have long been dissatisfied with the prime minister's moderation
in Arab relations and his tight control of the army.
Should Ben-Gurion disappear from the
political scene, his country will have lost its ablest leader and
the West one of its strongest friends in Israel.
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WESTERN EUROPE
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9. France considering proposal for security guarantee to USSR:
France is now considering proposing
that the West offer the Soviet Union a
unilateral security guarantee without
prior negotiations, according to a
Foreign Ministry official. Such a guarantee would include an
affirmation by all the NATO governments of their adherence
to the United Nations and a West German declaration guaranteed
by the occupying powers not to attempt modification of its pre-
sent boundaries by force.
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The Foreign Ministry believes that such
a public offer to the USSR would emphasize the West's peaceful
intentions and have a salutary affect on world opinion.
Comment: This new French approach
apparently supplants MauriceSchumann's 25 September speech
before the UN calling for bilateral negotiations on security guar-
antees between the European community and Russia. The proposed
West German guarantee would ease current French fears that West
Germany would use EDC in an attempt to regain territories in the
East.
West Germany, however, would probably
refuse to support any declaration which, in its view, would jeopar-
dize its claims to "the lost territories:'
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