CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000900380001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 12, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 25, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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25 November 1952
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Copy No,
57
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. ? a
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NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: H 70~-2~Q
Office .of Current Intelligence DATE/ REEVVlEWER.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Department review
completed
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SUMMARY
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FAR EAST
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3. Japan again rejects UN demand for exclusive criminal
jurisdiction (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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6. Comment on Iraq's political crisis (page 7).
7. Foreign Minister states Israel's position on repatriation of
Arab refugees (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Increased anti-church activity anticipated in East Germany (page 8).
9. Pinay's fate in doubt in forthcoming Assembly debates (page 8).
10. Italy seeks approval to ship embargoed ball bearings to Poland
(page 9).
11. Madrid ready to speed conclusion of US base rights agreement
(page 10).
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FAR EAST
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3. Japan again rejects UN demand for exclusive criminal jurisdiction:
Japan has rejected the UN Command's
12 November demand that United Nations
forces in Japan be granted jurisdictional
treatment equal to that granted American
.rces, according to Ambassador Murphy. The memorandum pre-
sented by Foreign Minister Okazaki to the Ambassador on 22 No-
vember also attacked the US administrative agreement as "bitterly
resented by the Japanese people." He subsequently withdrew it when
Murphy expressed "shocked surprise."
Murphy believes that the Japanese are
stalling on the criminal jurisdiction issue in hopes of paving the
way for a modification of the administrative agreement. He also
feels that Okazaki has found the issue an ideal one to meet crit-
icism of his "weak-kneed diplomacy."
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Comment. The Japanese press, in pre-
senting the issue as a surrenc er of sovereignty, has aroused public
opinion to the point where the government's survival would be threat-
ened if it acceded to the demands of the UN Command. The opposition
parties are not only against granting jurisdictional rights to the UN
forces, but are now unanimous in demanding a revision of these clauses
in the US-Japan security treaty arrangements.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Comment on Iraq's political crisis.,
The appointment on 23 November of the
pro-British Iraqi Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Nur al-Din
Mahmud, as Prime Minister will probably not bring an end to
Iraq's political crisis. The general's control of the army will
enable him to maintain internal order, but since he is apparently
little interested in politics and has no platform, his appointment
will hardly satisfy the popular demand for political and economic
reforms. Moreover, his appointment as Chief of Staff in July
1951 aroused strong opposition because he is a Kurd, and because
of his alleged mismanagement of the Palestinian war.
The imposition of martial law in Baghdad,
the suspension of the press and the dissolution of political parties
will not halt the unrest, which springs from the opposition to pro-
jected plans for the forthcoming elections. Aroused public sentiment
puts greater pressure on Iraq's governing classes to grant sorely
needed reforms. It also creates an unfavorable atmosphere for
renewal of the Anglo-Iraqi Treaty, for agreements with foreign oil
companies, and for bringing Iraq into MEDOO
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7. Foreign Minister states Israel's position on repatriation of Arab
? refugees., -- - _ ~--~
number of Arabs now in Israel and that solution of the problem lies
in "resettlement and compensation." Sharett added that Israel has no
plans for payment of compensation. It does not even know where it
will get funds to pay the recently unblocked Arab accounts.
Foreign Minister Sharett told the American
Embassy that Israel's position on repatriation
of Arab refugees is firmly fixed, that no use-
ful purpose would be "served by increasing the
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Comment.- Israel's financial plight is
acute; nevertheless, its unwillingness to accept the return of any
of the 880,000 refugees and its insistence that it has no funds for
Arab repayments again underscores the improbability of.any settle-
ment between Israel and the Arabs.
WESTERN EUROPE
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8. Increased anti-church activity anticipated in East Germany.-
American officials in Berlin are inclined
to agree with Bishop Dibelius that the
probable consequences of the cancellation
of the :intended visit to Moscow will be a
stepped-up Communist campaign against the Protestant church in
East Germany, The East German Communists may take the with-
drawal of the invitation as a cue for the "quiet implementation" of
anti-church measures already in the making.
Dibelius' recent vigorous denunciation of
the East German regime may have been the immediate cause of
Moscow's decision, but the realization that Dibelius is not so easily
exploited as such churchmen as Niemoeller may also have been a
factor.
Comment.- While further harassment of the
church in East Germany is expected, the Communist need to develop
broad all-German opposition to :Bonn policies will probably govern
the timing of any new measures.
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9. Pinay's fate in doubt in forthcoming Assembly debates.
The American Embassy in Paris expects
the National Assembly debates of 2 and
4 December on general fiscal and foreign
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policies respectively to be a real test for Premier Pinay's over-all
program.
Despite warnings that Pinay is "very close
to being overthrown," the Embassy is reassured by the absence of
real interest among opposition elements in provoking a crisis, prob-
ably because they cannot conceive of a feasible political realignment.
Comment. Pinay's chances of surviving next
week's test votes are only a_ ir. -Ie will probably be in greatest dan-
ger in the vote on the over-all budget bill, when his insistence on
including unpopular fiscal reform proposals will run the risk of irre-
sponsible Peasant Party and Gaullist opposition.
lop Italy seeks approval to ship embargoed ball bearings to Poland:
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The Italian Foreign Ministry has instructed
its COCOM delegate to request exception
for List I ball bearings exports to Poland
amounting to $450,000. Rome is convinced
that refusal to ship the all bearings will result in a drastic reduction
of trade with Poland. Imports of Polish coal, the most important
item of Italo-Polish trade, are already running at only 620 5 percent
of last year's rate.
The Italians argue further that most of the
bearings on order are for equipment previoisly purchased in Itf.ly
and not of great strategic importance, and that it is desirable to make
the Poles dependent on Italy for maintenance. items.
Comment. Italy is probably under pressure
to make at least partial s iii pment: of the $900,000 worth 'of List. I.bearings
on order from Poland, On September 24, Italy promised to reduce this
order by $220,004 but has experienced trouble in finding alternate mar-
kets because of recent British and French import restrictions.
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The decline in Italy's imports of Polish
coal is attributable to the high price of the coal rather than to
Italy's failure to export bearings.
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Foreign Minister Artajo indicated to
Ambassador MacVeagh on 19 Novem-
ber that he would authorize the Spanish
military experts to bring the technical
aspects o e CS-Spanish base rights negotiations to a speedy
conclusion. His past reluctance to order this decisive step was
apparently overcome by MacVeagh's formal assurances that
American requirements for peacetime facilities would be held
to a minimum.
Comment: Franco is known to oppose
the type of peacetime arrangements.obtai.nedby the United States
in Morocco and the Azores. Artajo had postponed this decision
largely because of the erroneous belief, which he held until his
19 November interview with MacVeagh, that payment of the
$125,000,000 earmarked for Spain could be authorized prior to
conclusion of the base rights agreement.
11. Madrid ready to speed conclusion of US base rights agreement:
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