CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000500280001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 16, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Re e G"132: 5AO 0 0280001-5
16 January 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. --4/7
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
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Aurfi: EXT REVIEW DATE. ,
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
DOS review(s) completed.
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
S. Mossadeq warns of imminent financial collapse (page 5).
GENERAL
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7.
SOUTH ASIA
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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10. Possible Austrian Cabinet shifts reported (page 8).
Ap~M2t1'For
Preliminary Commonwealth finance talks show realism and
determination (page 3).
Indian Communists reportedly to move headquarters from Bombay
to Calcutta (page 5).
Reuters correspondent implicates British officials in Iran (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
Buying wave sparked by Radio Free Europe sweeps Prague
WESTERN EUROPE
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(page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Preliminary Commonwealth finance talks show realism and determination:
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In the technical dicussions preceding the Common-
wealth Finance Ministers' meeting which began in
'Laifdonkon 15 January, the Canadian delegation
noted a unanimous conviction that the sterling
area must solve its own problems, and the recognition that. dollar aid from
the United States would not provide the solution.
According to the Canadian officials, there was
agreement that convertibility of sterling should be restored as soon as
possible, a goal previously regarded by many sterling countries as very
distant.
The emphasis in their specific recommendations
for dealing with the shprt-term dollar crisis fell on domestic deflationary
measures, rather than upon purely restrictive devices, such as direct cuts
in import quotas. Final decisions on these suggestions will be taken during
the Ministers' meetings now in progress.
The United States Einbassy~ in London comments
that "moderate" optimism over the long-term outlook for Britain and the
sterling area is justified if the Canadian observations are borne out in the
Ministers' talks. In the Embassy's view, the critical question is whether
the conference will find the means to restore world confidence in sterling
within the next six months.
Comment: This report tends to refute earlier
widespread comment to the effect that serious strains had developed among
the sterling countries to the point of destroying the solidarity of the group.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Indian Communists reportedly to move headquarters from Bombay to
Calcutta:
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be scoring successes.
cutta area, where early election returns indicate that the Communists may
The Communist Party of India will move its
headquarters from Bombay to Calcutta within
the next several months. Communist activity
appears to be considerably stronger in the Cal-
The US Consul General in Calcutta- feels that in
view, of Communist agitation in the frontier areas near Sikkim and Bhutan,
increased Communist Chinese activity in Tibet, and reported Indian Commu-
nist plans for armed violence in the Assam areas near Burma, the establish-
ment of headquarters in Calcutta would greatly facilitate Communist Party
communication and control in these areas.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq warns of imminent financial collapse:
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funds, except for those received from the International Monetary Fund, and
that the government owed money for civil and military salaries and supplies.
thirty days. Mossa eq stated that the government had used up all its available
Prime Minister Mossadeq has informed the US
Ambassador that Iran's situation is desperate and
that without financial assistance government
collapse and revolution would be certain within
He insisted that, although he had not yet discussed
the sale of Iranian oil with the USSR,. he would have to do so if he were not
assured of American financial aid. He suggested that the Ambassador inform
Washington that if he did not receive promise of such aid within five days, he
would have to make a del with the Russians.
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Comment: Mossadeq has not exaggerated his
financial difficulties, but his warning of imminent collapse appears to'
contain elements of blackmail. In making his plea, he was presumably
motivated by a realization that a clash with the Majlis over the devaluation
of the currency, a possible alternative, might bring about his fall.
6. Reuters correspondent implicates British officials in Iran,.
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The Reuters correspondent currently under
arrest for circulating false reports derogatory
to Iran is being held incommunicado and has
made "confessions" mentioning four members
of the British Embassy staff as the sources of his information. The British
believe that he will be given a "state trial" along Eastern European lines,
probably before the parliamentary interpellation of Mossadeq scheduled for
21 January. Iranian Minister of Court Ala has stated that the correspondent,
who was "being encouraged to talk, 11 has made statements which reflected
adversely on members of the British Embassy staff.
Comment: Those British Embassy officers
mentioned in the "confessions, " in ividuals with much knowledge and exper-
ience in Iran who have been concerned with political reporting, have been
suspected by the Iranians of inciting the tribes to revolt.
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EASTERN. EUROPE
9. Buying wave sparked by Radio Free Europe sweeps Prague
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A buying.wave is sweeping Prague, set off,
according to the American Embassy, by specu-
lations on the possibility of a currency reform
broadcast over Radio Free Europe. Purchases
are so far selective, and buyers have concentrated on textiles, gold and
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diamonds sold on the free market. The Embassy feels that the broad-
casts may provide the Czech regime with a scapegoat upon which to pin
the necessity for more stringent economic measures against the population.
Comment: Rumors of an impending currency
ref orm have circulated for several.months in Czechoslovakia. A buying
panic swept Budapest earlier this month. Economic conditions in both
Hungary and Czechoslovakia make a future currency reform probable.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Possible Austrian Cabinet shifts reported-.
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The directorate of the People's Party re-
portedly decided at its 9 January meeting to
replace all party members now serving in the
Austrian Cabinet. The shake-up would involve
e ante ery, the Foreign Office, the Ministries of Finance, Trade,
Agriculture, and Education, the Office of State Secretary, and the Presi-
dency of the Parliament. Party Chairman Julius Raab has allegedly been
urged to assume the Chancellorship; if he accepts, Foreign Minister
Gruber would be replaced by Chancellor Figl.
The Embassy cautions that this report may
indicate persisting uneasiness among People's Party leadership rather
than clear-cut decisions to initiate far-reaching changes.
Comment: If the reported Cabinet changes
were to be confirmed at the party conference on 28-29 January, they would
fortify the moderate leadership represented by Chancellor Figl and Chair-
man Raab. The success of their pro-coalition policy will depend, however,
on their capacity to maintain supremacy while still holding the party together.
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