CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000400450001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 15, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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TOP SECRET IM_
15 November 1951
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 41(
UMENty.
NO CHANGE IN C1.4SS
f ] GECLASSIRED
CI-A-SS- CHANGED TO:
NEXT RE1+tE1,",t r)aTc:
PACOM review(s) completed.
Office of Current Intelligence
JCS review completed.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
State Dept. review
completed TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
FAR.EAST
3. London seriously concerned over Malayan situation (naLye 4).
Preparations for Viet Minh attack reported (page 3).
NEAR EAST
5. Egyptian Minister of Interior indicates interest in Middle East
Command (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Current Dutch position imperils Yugoslav finances (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. British request broadening of military aid criteria (page 6).
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2. Preparations for Viet Minh attack reported,.
The Viet Minh I have
begun recruitment of able-bodied men in
several provinces of the Tonkin delta, an
activity which is usually a prelude to an
a ac o the chiefs of Viet Minh "sections" in
Hanoi have een instructed. to move into Hanoi from their present sub-
urban locations, and that this order may indicate plans to coordinate a
wave of violence within the city with attacks by regular Viet Minh
forces throughout the deltas
Comment,. Recruiting of able-bodied men is
a continuing Viet Minh activity Any accelerated recruiting at this time
is probably more a measure of the heavy losses sustained by the Viet
Minh during their unsuccessful October operations than of their inten-
tion to launch an offensive throughout the delta.
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The Viet Minh will probably attack: some point
or points on the French perimeter during the latter part of November,
but not in sufficient strength to threaten Hanoi seriously. The Viet Minh
would hardly stage an uprising' in Hanoi unless it were strong enough to
attempt an all-out attack on the French in Tonkin with a fair prospect of
success.
3o London seriously concerned over Malayan situation:
Officials in the Colonial Office state that Colonial
Secretary Lytteiton"'s forthcoming visit to
Malaya is prompted by concern over the fail-
ure of the latest guerrilla-suppression pro-
gram
uce resu s commensurate-with the cost, and by the demands
of local authorities for broader emergency powers. Since a major
turnover of ranking officials is in prospect, Lyttelton wishes to consult
with the retiring officials on the spot.
Malcolm MacDonald's term of office as
Commissioner General in Southeast Asia expires next May and probably
will not be renewed in view of Churchill's known distrust of him.
Comment: No indications have been received
that the new Cabinet intends to make any basic changes in present British
policies in the Malayan emergency. The British are apparently counting
on General Lockhart, the new commander, to prosecute the campaign with
greater vigor and a more intelligent grasp of the political problems
involved.
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The Egyptian Minister of Interior, who is
also the politically powerful Secretary General
of the Wafd Party, has informed the US Ambas-
sador in Cairo that Egypt could accept the
ast omman uncle I r certain conditions.
5. Egyptian. Minister of Interior indicates interest in Middle East Command:
British forces must evacuate Egypt within
approximately one year, leaving only a limited number of technicians,
including American as well as British personnel. In addition, airplanes
used in the Suez Canal area must be Egyptian, even if flown by British
pilots.
Comment. The fact that the second most
influential official in the Egyptian Cabinet has followed the Prime Minister
in broaching Egypt's possible acceptance of the Western defense scheme
indicates ::that the Government's abrupt rejection of the plan three weeks
ago did not close the door to further negotiations on the subject. It is
noteworthy that the Sudan issue was not mentioned.
The wide gap, however, between Egyptian
and Western thinking on the defense issue and the extreme demands made
in public by Egyptian Government, officials still minimize the hope for
any settlement.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Current Dutch position imperils Yugoslav finances:
Dutch officials have rejected a Yugoslav
request to postpone the initial payment on a
six' million guilder (approximately 1. 5
million dollars) debt from the summer of
1952 to 1954.
Comment: Dutch diplomats have indicated
privately to US officials that thei is some hope for a postponement next
summer if the Yugoslav balance of payments deficit is still serious.
A final Dutch refusal would set an unfavor-
able precedent. For, unless Yugoslavia` s European creditors agree to
a debt readjustment, a significant portion of tripartite aid funds, amount-
ing to a maximum of 125 million dollars, will be dissipated in the form
of payments on a 60 million dollar Yugoslav debt to Austria, Belgium and
Western Germany.
The British Defense Ministry has asked the
US Military Assistance Advisory Group in
London whether the military aid given Great
Britain by the United States under the Mutual
Defense Assistance Program can be applied to (1) research and develop-
ment. equipment, (2) technical assistance for the overhauling of US type
equipment, (3) component parts, (4) engineering construction equipment,
and (5) British forces not committed to' NATO.
Comment: For many months British officials
have attempted to bring about a broadening of the criteria by which US
military aid to Britain is determined. They probably see an immediate
opportunity for increased aid, pending the results of NATO studs s, and
quite independent of any forthcoming requests for US economic assistance.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. British request broadening of Military aid criteria:
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