CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000300190001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 20, 1950
• Content Type: REPORT

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
NO. CHANGE IN CLASS. 5r-
CLASS. 1 DECLASSIFIED
NXA TO; TS 5~
NEXT T REVIEW DATE:
RUTH' HR O.
DATE of REVIEWER
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DOS review(s) completed.
Army review(s) completed.
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SUMMARY
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FAR EAST
Enemy supply build-up in Korea indicates increased offensive
,capability (page 3).
Rumors of a cease-fire in Indochina continue (page 4)0
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Hungary requests explanation for US retaliatory action (page 5).
5e Non-retaliation in Oatis case jeopardizes US prestige (page
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on new Spanish. Cabinet (page 6).
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FAR EAST .
25X1 A 2. Enern au 1 y build-u in Korea ? i i
The US Eighth Army est hate on the hasp.
of the accurnulatR,ox)l o f su >pi.es i Commu. n.sj
forward areas since 30 Tune, that the enemy
now could support a 45-division attack for
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nine to eleven days or a 72-division attack for five to seven days. Ac-
cording to the Eighth Army, however, there is no firm indication that
the enemy will soon resume the offensive.
.Comment: Enemy forces probably have.
attained a state of logistical readiness comparable to that which existed
prior to the launching of previous offensives. Their potential is increas-
ing as the relative lull continues, and indications are that any new attack
may be the stro_ngest yet launched.
ZILmgrs continue.-
The Ho Chi Minh government's "official"
news agency broadcast without comment
on 12,3'ply a proposal made by the pro-Com-
munist Paris daily Liberation for a cease-
fire in Indochina.
Meanwhile, the US Minister In Saigon reports
rumors that a three-day meeting scheduled
to begin on 22 July between the International
]Red Cross delegate in In and representatives of the Ho Chi Minh
government may involve negotiations leading to a cease-fired The Minis-
ter notes that the Viet Minh radio has been consistently emphasizing that
'peace in. Korea means peace in Asia. "
negotiations between the Frencoh a~.~ the VietiMinh rumors of cease-fire
to parallel those in
Korea have been circulating in Saigon and Hanoi during the past two
weeks. Both Bao Dai and Premier Huu have considered them as possibly
tru;o 5:
The US Consul in Hanoi recently reported
that the Red Cross delegate had asked to use US code channels to Geneva.
The unusual nature of the request raised the consul's suspicions that some-
thing more important than exchange of prisoner information was to be
transmitted.
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General de Lattre's statement earlier this
week that the Viet Minh had suffered severe losses and might have to
request a cease-fire is the only indication that the French have considered
such a possibility.
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EASTERN EUROPE
4. Hungary requests ex anation for US retaliatory
The Hungarian Government has demanded
to know the reasons why the US declared
two officials of the Hungarian Legation in
Washington personae non gratae. The US
Charge, d' Affair es in Budapest believes that this move.,.may indicate a
Hungarian reluctance to take further retaliatory action as threatened
by Deputy Foreign Minister Beret on 14 July. In the Charge's opinion,
Hungary desires to retain the relatively large staffs of its Legation and
newly reopened Consulates.
Comment: The US Charge previously had
expected the threatened countermeasures to involve the expulsion of
additional US Legation staff members. The Hungarian Government re-
ceived permission in May to reopen its Cleveland and New York Con-
sulates, which are staffed temporarily with personnel from the Wash-
ington Legation.
5. Non-retaliation in Oatis case Jeopardizes US ,prestige.-
Non-communist diplomats in Prague consider
that the US has lost prestige because of its
failure to retaliate strongly against Oatis'
imprisonment. Ambassador Briggs adds that
the spectacle of the US "being kicked around with impunity" discourages
resistance sentiment .among the Czechs. Briggs, once more strongly
urging the Department of State to' adopt all possible retailatory measures,
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recommends: (a) the denial of overflight permits across West Germany
to all Czech planes, with or without British and French concurrence;
(b) the blocking of Czech assets in the US; and (c) a campaign to arouse
public clamor against Czechoslovakia and. Czech products, which should
be in full cry when the new Czech Ambassador arrives in the US next
week.
The Department of State, which
holds that immediate retaliation is in order, favors the denial to Czechs
of permits to enter Western Germany as a first step, but the move has
been held in abeyance pending the concurrence of the British and French
Governments. Tripartite action is considered necessary to make this
step effective, since no permits are required for travel between the three
zones. The Department of State also is taking steps to arrange Otitis'
exchange for a Czech national imprisoned in West Germany for espionage.
An official boycott of Czech exports to the US would be a most effective
retaliatory action.
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WESTERN EUROPE
6. Comment .on new Spanish Cabinaeto
The composition. of the new Spanish Cabinet
gives the impression that no liberalization of the regime has occurred.
.However, the choice of four. or five men generally considered as falan-
gist theoreticians interested in social reforms indicates that Franco has
respon ed to domestic criticism. The preponderance of falangists and
nominal monarchists gives the impression that Franco is ignoring the
preferences of the Catholic Church regarding the future orientation of
the regime.
The appointment to the economic ministries
of men who are acceptable to the US and understand the practical. work-
ings of these ministries appears to have been made with a view to'4
facilitate. US economic aid. The reorganization of the Commerce and
Industry Ministry into two separate components may rice slightly the
emphasis on industrialization and provide greater opportunities for pri-
vate business.
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The appointment to the cabinet of Carrero
Blanco, a notorious anglophobe, is a rebuff to the UK.
Little liberalization of the press can be
expected under the new Minister of the Press, who is a Falangist stalwart
with a strongly pro-Nazi background.
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