CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000300160001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 31, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 17, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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17Suly1951
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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NO CHANGE-IN CLASS.
CLASS. CHANGED TO:. TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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DOS review(s)
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SUMMARY
SOUTH ASIA
4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan (page 5)0 _ VI A k1PA f s '
NEAR EAST/AFRICA
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Egyptian Foreign Minister threatens to denounce Annlo-Egyp an Treaty
(page 7)a
EASTERN EUROPE
r u (041t) V010
Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehen6ion
-(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
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9. West Germans seek equal status through . European Army talks (page 8
a sec Trieste as center. for Yugoslav military aid program would harm
US-Italian relations (page 9)0 --> 11 ' ii V6-o, -YrAt J 5 A14 -7 v
120 Portuguese Supreme Court approves candidacy of o podition leader (page 10).
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SOUTH ASIA.
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4. New tensions developing between India and Pakistan,.
Since its 2 July complaint to the United
Nations regarding Pakistani breaches of
the cease-fire agreement in Kashmir,
India has been attempting to convince UN
Representative Frank Graham of Pakistan's
aggressive intentions in that area and has
taken several steps to place Pakistan
militarily and propagandistically on the
defensive. A few bellicose statements
made by Pakistanis concerning the establish-
ment of a Constituent Assembly in Indian-
held Kashmir have been used by the Indians
as an excuse to move practically the whole
of their armed forces up to the Pakistani
border. Pakistan has countered with a
series of defensive troop movements. It
has cancelled all military leaves and has placed all civil defense forces
under military control. US and British representatives in South Asia
are disturbed over the possibility of war between the two countries.
Como India is obviously conducting a
war of nerves against Pakistan, possibly hoping that the latter will
commit an aggressive act while Graham is in the subcontinent. The
Indian Government has no, intention of opera} itself to charges of
aggression, however.. Both the Pakistani Government and Army know
that aggressive actions on their part would lead to war and probably to
the eventual dissolution of Pakistan. Both will seek to prevent such
actions though each will attempt to display a bold front toward the
enemy. Between them, the government and the army have the capability
to keep the Pakistani people and the tribesmen in hand, and it is believed
that they will take appropriate measures to do so.
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7. Egyptian Foreign. Minister threatens to denounce Anglo-Egyptian Treaty:
The Egyptian Foreign Minister has informed.
US. Ambassador Caffrey that, unless something
unexpected. happens in Anglo-Egyptian negoti-
ations. on the defense of the Suez Canal Zone
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before the mid-August adjournment of the Egyptian Parliament, he will
announce the end of the Anglo-Egyptian talks and denounce the 1936 treaty
with the UK.
Comment: The British Ambassador, to whom
the Foreign Minister made the same threat, considers that there is some
possibility that King Farouk, who recognizes the importance of obtaining
British cooperation :in the defense of the Suez Canal area, will disavow
such ...move. :It is, however, not unlikely that anger over -the forthcoming
Security Council attempts to have the Egyptian Suez Canal restrictions
lifted, plus a resurgence of nationalism generated by events in Iran, will
encourage Egypt to denounce the treaty.
EASTERN EUROPE
Y . Rumanian border evacuation reveals internal security apprehension:
The US Legation in Bucharest reports that the
mass evacuatioa.from the. Rumanian-Yugoslav
border which j*gan about 15 June apparently
ceased, at least temporarily, during the
second week in July. Western observers in Bucharest now believe that
the number evacuated did not exceed 20, 000 to 30, 000. The Yugoslav ?
Charg(estimates that 7, 000 of'the Yugoslav minority were included in
the total.
i
Comment: Cessation of the border area
evacuation strengthens the conclusion that this. move does not. indicate
preparation for immediate hostilities. The apparently selective evacu-
ation of Yugoslavs, other minority groups and hostile peasants strongly
suggests internal security considerations.
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WESTERN EUROPE
25X1 A 9 West Germans seek equal status through European Army talks.,
While "appreciable progress" continues at
the Paris European Army talks and while
the delegations are confident that an agreed
report will be ready next week, the German
delegates are using the occasion tc push vigorously the objective of
German equality. They insist that changes must be made in Germany's
political status before the Federal Republic can sign the projected
European defense treaty. Furthermore, they are protesting the French
proposal. that German:rcruttifor the European Army should proceed
initially under Allied supervis1on, on the grounds that this arrangement
would constitute discrimination,
Comment: Evidence indicates that the, Ger-
mans will not sign any agreement relating to their armed forces- until
substantial progress has been made toward political equality for West
Germany.
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110 _Vse of Trieste as center for Yugoslav military aid program would harm
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The US Embassy in Rome believes that the
use of Zone A as an assembly and processing
center for the Yugoslav military aid program
would be resented deeply by the Italian public
and government, who would interpret it as the establishment of a Yugoslav
military base in Trieste.
The Embassy agrees thfre should be no
objections to using Trieste's industrial facilities for producing non-
military supplies for Yuglaviad It points out, however, that inviting
substantial numbers of Yugoslav military personnel into Zone A would
affect adversely relations between the US and Italian Governments.
Comment: There has been rnouittirg uneasi-
ness in Italy that the West's proposed military aid program for .Yugoslavia
might enable the latter to replace Italy as the keystone in NATO Mediter-
ranean defense, and that the US and UK are favoring Tito's claims to
Trieste in preference to those of Jtaly.
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12o Portuguese Supreme Court, approves candidacy of_opposition leader.
Upon :the recommendation of the Council of
State, the Portuguese Supreme Court has ruled
favorably on the "political eligibility" of oppo-
sition leader Vice-Admiral Quintao Meireles,
a candidate in the 22 July presidential elections-0
Professor Rui Luis Gomes, a notorious: fellow-
traveler, has been rejected.
Comment. The disqualification of Gomes was
expected. The 22 July elections will test the popular strength of the
Salazar regime, for it will face an election forthe first time without the
tremendous vote-getting appeal of the late Marshal Carmona. Although
Quintao Meireles has hardly a chance of defeating the government can-
didate, General Craveiro Lopes, he could be the source of considerable
embarrassment by causing a noticeable drop in the total vote cast for the
Salazar administration. A 71-year old admiral and reportedly a Catholic
and a moderate Liberal, Quintao Meireles favors even closer ties between
Portugal and the US.
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