CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A000200270001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 19, 1951
• Content Type: REPORT

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19 Ma.y 1951
Copy oo ~
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. ,/~
NO CHANGE IN CI.ASc;.
Il DECLASSIF'IE:D
CLASS. CI-IANi.~{i'f0: TS S
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LATE. ~ a
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DOS review(s) completed.
USAF review(s) completed.
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Office of Current Intell~[gence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUllllMARY
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FAR EAST
rnese a Iona fists reporte to have entexed South China (page 3).
NEAR EAST
3.
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Soviets reportedly attempting to gain Patriarchate of Armenian Church (pale 4
EASTERN EUROPE
5. No immediate renewal of Berlin blockade expected. (page 5). ~" ~-.aLS~...
WESTERN ETJROPE
. New alliance of right-wing French parties further weakens center (pane 6): ?-
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2. Chinese N'atiQ~~,~,ists remorted to have entered South Chi
faxther northward than originally planned in order to avoiGi a concentration
of Chinese Communist troops. The. Chinese Charge comments that if the
Nationalists aye attacked by the Communists, they will "probably take- to
the hills in Yunnan;
The Chinese Nationalist Charge in Bangkok has
informed the US Embassy there that all Nationalist
troops formerly in Burma have now moved- into
Yunnan Province, China, crossing the border
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NEAR EAST
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3. Soviets reportedly attempting to gain Patriarchate_of
successor -- a choice that is believed to be acceptable to the majority
of anti~Soviet groups within the local Armenian Church, whose council
is charged. with the responsibility of appointing a new patriarch, The
Charge states. that two Soviet Armenian agents have reportedly been active
in attempting to clevclop a plan to have the present patriarch declared
senile and incapable of heading the church and thus,. presumably, creating.
an opportunity fp~r the appointment of apro-Soviet patriarch.. tJn X6 May,
the Lebanese President told the US Charge that he would k the Director
General of the Surete to mare a thorough investigation of ommunist
attempts to win over the patriarchate of the Armenian Church.-
According to the US Charge in Beirut, in
January the Armenian Patriarch, who is
reportedly on the point of death, nominated,
Archbishop Atchabahian of Beirut as his
Co~nmento The Soviets have. long been attempting
to penetrate the Armenian Church and have used. former Armenian residents.
of Lebanon who were encouraged to migrate to Soviet Armenia a few years
ago. Any successful penetration of the Armenian Church by the Soviets would
prove an effective means for extending Communist influence in the Near East
because of the considerable number of Armenians. living in this areao
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pproved
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EASTERN EURtJPE
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5. ~Q immediate renewal o~,derlir~,y~1Q,~ckaae;~~exneyt
The Commander-in-Chief of US Ait .Forces.~in
Europe estimates that a renewal of the Berlin
blockade:, as a separate and distinct operation
rather than as part of other and.. more complex
operations, is unlikely in the near fut~e. Among
the advantages to the USSR of such an operation,
the US Air Force in Europe cites the difficulty
involved in US reinstitutign of .the airlift in view.
of other commitments and of substantial Soviet capabilities to interfere with
an airlift by means short of war. Noting the absence of positive intelligence
regarding Soviet intentions in this matter, it concludes. that $_an.airlift r~~b/~~~~
is unlikely. because of (a) Berlin's stq~kpile of five months' supplies9 (b)
the Soviet expectation of a retaliatory+embargo on all shipments to Eastern
Germany from the West, probably destroying any chance of fulfilling the
East German five year plan9 and (c) the probability that 200 four-engine
aircraft, the number used in the previous airlift, -could be produced or
procured without withdrawals from l~o~ea.
consider a reimposition of the Berlin blocks a unlikely be ore the end. of 1951.
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blockade now, primarily because this would (a) interfere with its present
drive agaia~st West German remilitarization and other East-V~st issues,
(b) jeopardize the success of the coming World Youth Festival in Berlin, and
(c) require sacrificing Berlin as a main transshipment point.
the USSR would probably be unwilling to impose another
WESTERN EU.1tQPE
6o New ~ll.i~.n~~ of right-wi,n~ French parties further weakens centers..
in the next Assembly large enough to "stand up to De Gaulle" and "treat"
with him on equal terms. The Embassy corgnnents that the new group will
be able to do this only if it can conclude a firm alliance with the. Radical
Socialists, the only other important non ,~aulli~~ I?arty,or~ the R#~'~t, and
that the Radicals are likely to decide upon a loose bond with the~new grouping
when their congress meets this week~enda Popularly known as the ''Fourth
Force, "this new political alliance is viewed.. by some observers as sounding
the death. kai~ll cif the '?Third Force" coalitions that have governed France
since 1947 and have st;~;er~~ a middle course taetween Communism and
Gaullism.
According to the LJS Embassyf' in Paris,, anew
alliance of l~i.ght of Center parties, the "Union, of
Inge endent~, Peasants and National Republicans,
ha; ~een f armed for the purpose of creating a -bloc
Comznentl This development, together with.
De Gaulle?s recent order that his party?s candidates may not .form electoral
alliances with other parties, increases the likelihood of a major shift to
the Right in the new Assembly to be elected 17 Junaeo The two largest "Third
Force`? parties, the Popular Republicans and the Socialists, will have fewer
seats in the new Assembly than has been anticipatedy and.. it will probably
prove impossible to construct a government excluding the Gaullistso
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$. Maly uraes,Western initiative in .Middle East:
25X1 I I An official of the Italian Foreign Office has- stated
A that the Italian Government is concerned over the
deterioration o~ political conditions in the Middle
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East, particuldrly as a result of developments in Iran, and believes-that a
Western initiative should be taken to reverse the present trend; He indicated
that the Italian Government would be satisfied with either the inclusion of
Turkey or Greece in NATO or with a separate security arrangement for the
Mediterranean, the latter having the advantage of holding out hope to other
countries such as Egypt for eventual inclusiono
Comments ~ Italy is becoming increasingly con-
cerned at what it ..regards as the lack of political initiative in the West in
contrast to the Soviet blow It has been along-standing objective of Italian
foreign policy to integrate Turkish and Greek defense mare closely into
Western defense arrangements in order to protect Italy's exposed eastern
flanko The Italian Government will therefore firmly support US efforts to
have Greece and Turkey included in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
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