THE SITUATION IN UGANDA*

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000500030033-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 1999
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: April 16, 1957
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
16 April 1.957
STAFF Ma1ORANLXJM NO. 23=57
SUBJECT: The Situation in Uganda*
1a Ghana?s a uisition of independence and Commonwealth statug
has stimulated ness2 et,es concerning the progress of othea'5 can
territories under It is likely that in East
Africa the protectorate of Uganda will be the first to obtain self-
governnent4 Like Ghana, Uganda is relatively prosperousp well-endowed
with material resources, and has only a handful of white settlers
conditions favoring early independence. However,, several major obstacles
stand in the way of speedy and tranquil progress towazds self-government,
especially Uganda's lack of national cohesion and political experleno.
and the influence of events in neighboring areas. How rapidly these
obstacles can be dealt with will largely determine wh2fAUganda can
~ftA peaceful transition to self-government within
The substance of this memorandum has been discussed Informally
,with CCI.
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20 Uganda?$ lack of national cohesion largely results from its
artificially imposed boundaries, the special position of the separate
native kingdom of Buganda within those borderrs, and political, social,
and economic ~ rltiea among various tribal groups,, %be agreement of
1900 between and the Kabaka (king) of isuganda established a
system of indirect rule whereby chiefs of the well organized Baganda
fibs,, the largest and most powerful in Uganda received protection and
subsidies in exchange for native administration of justice and tax
coilections0 The agreement in effect created a landed aristocracy in
Buganda. Similar agreements were made with local chiefs in other areas
of Uganda where tribal development was sufficiently advanced. In more
primitive regions !Ylocal leaders were incapable of administering
colonial policy,, introduced. Baganda chiefs and thereby
extended the political influence of Buganda0
3,, Buganda's political primacy over the other regions Is rein-
fom-ad byr its disproportionate role in Uganda? s econon0 Its beneficial
climate, fertile soil, railroad lline to the coast, and possession of the
adninistrative capital combine to make Buganda the most prosperous of
haen economic development under the
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administration0 stimulation of native output of cash
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crops - especially cotton and coffee, which constitute about 85 percent
of total exports - has resulted in a favorable balance of trade,
Buganda produces ter far the major portion of such crops, and thus accounts
for the country0e relative prosperity.
18o On the other hand, economic development now going forward in
Uganda may benefit other regions and reduce Bugarrda? s present command-
ing lead. Uganda possesses extensive lime,, coppcn~-cobalt, and other
mineral deposits, exploitation of these deposits is contributing to the
diversification of the economy and the development of secondary iandustries?
thus reducing the country?a present vulnerability to the fluctuation of
world agricultural prices. The western region in particular is likely to
experience considerable economic growt'rh, since it contains the bulk of
mineral resources] the recent extension of the railroad as far as the
Congo border gives access to these resources. Moreover, current plans
to make further use of the Victoria Nile hydroelectric potential over
the next few years should provide plentiful power resources for all
Uganda,
5. Although these prospects in the field of economic development
increase the chances for creating a viable national state, at thee9nt
time the predominant position of Buganda complicates and hampers
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efforts to grant increased political opportunities to the natives of
Uganda as a prelude to national self-government. The situation is
similar to that in Ghana and Nigeria, where certain provinces are far
more advanced than others but refuse to slow their pace-to allow the
others to catch up. There is good reason to believe that developments
in Ugmda will parallel those in the West African countries, even
though the East African natives are considerably less advanced than those
in the West. However,, there are further problems pecltAto Uganda
posed by internal conflicts ffiiong the Baganda and by concern
over conditions in contiguous East African areas. The progress of
Uganda toward self-government will be largely determined by the Inter-
action and eventual resolution of such problems.
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6, At present, exercise full control over Uganda
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through who presides over the Executive and
Legislative Councils. There is only limited native participation in
~~Gguncils and it is determined, by appointment or indirect elections,
efforts to increase native participation in government were
temporarily halted when the Kabaka of Buganda was exiled for advocating
a separate and independent state of .Buganda. The period of the Kabakaes
exile, from late 1953 until 1955, was one of marked nationalist agitation.
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F0llo ing the Kabakau s return and his agreement to support the parti-
cipation of Buganda in a unified state of Uganda and to accept the status
of a constitutional monarch within Subanda, tensions eased and discussions
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were resumed. By April 1956. discussions resulted in
proposing that direct elections on a Comm roll be held in panda in
1957 and throughout Uganda in 1961, Such a schedule;, if adapted, would
mean that self-government for Uganda was relatively distant. The more
active nationalist groups, especially in Buganda, accordingly are already
demanding that a date for independence be fixed,
T, The interne quarrels in Buganda derive from the conflicting
views and ambitions of the Kabakas the bukiko (Buganda's native legis.
1ature) and the only major political pasty, the Uganda National Congress
(UNC)9 which has its m n divisions and squabbles. Although aamewhat
hampered the terns he accepted in 19559 the Kabaka desires absolute
control and is attempting to capitalise ems, the popularity he gained dur=
ing his exile. For their part, the Lukiko members, gan orally composed of
the landed aristocracy, insist on the supremacy of their assecu ? They
and other traditional elements among the Baganda regard direct national
elections as a threat to the status quo,,
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8. The UNC is a predominantly Buganda party, While party member,-
ship is still smalls there are indications that it is growing at a fairly
rapid rate. Its current deficiencies are corrupt leadership and lack of
organization, money, and discipline. The2i66as openly opposed to the
Kabaka prior to his exile, but denounced action and gained
considerable popular support for the reversal of its position, Its
nominal leader is Ignatius Musazi, who - despite his involvement in
numerous scandals - still receives financial support from the landed
aristocracy in return for his, opposition to the Kabakag s efforts to
reduce the influence of the Lukiko,
9. However, there is recent evidence that the UNC is gaining a
more national character and that more responsible individuals are in-
creasing their influence, These elements, led tr members of the Makerere
College faculty, are winning some support for country-!ride nationalist
agitation for a unified Uganda. An intraarty struggle now developing
between the traditionalist leaders and the rising younger members may
transform the UNC,
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10, Thus,
confront a rapidly changing situation which
has elements both favorable and inimical to their policies. On the one
hand, Uganda is achieving a more national character as a result of
economic development and nationalist activities., thereby advancing toward
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the goal set by as a precondition to independence. On the
other hand,, this advance has generated native demands far more sweeping
than is warranted by the degree of progress. Neither Buganda feelings
of superiority over the other three provinces nor the latters' fear and
distrust of the Baganda have 2beeeX6 greatly diminished; the Kabaka serves
as a symbol of resistance to K and thus as a figurehead for
the nationalist cause, but he seems basically hostile to many aspects
of that cause; the interests of the now nationalist element
of the
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landed aristocracy are increasingly coming into conflict.
may be able to capitalize on this internal conflict with a view toward
restraining Buganda aspirations while improving the position of the other
regions. However, it is more likely that U"~gAwill subordinate its
conflicts to the single aim of eliminating _ control.
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110 policy will continue to'be affected by concern for the
situation elsewhere in East Africa. 25T1 Kenya white settlers probably
will make every effort to persuade M to move caatiodusly in Uganda
for fear of repercussions in their co gW
A and in Tangy lka. Moreover,
In terms of their Uganda interests, wi]./to avoid appearing
to give way to Kenya settler demands and to forestall any discussion of
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an East African federation. The Uganda reaction to the Kegya situation
and to the federation theme was a basic element in the Kavakaes action
in 19530
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129 In these circumstances, rill probably atta pt to con-
tinue its present Uganda policy of granting frequent small reforms
2 nod to move the country gradually toward selffgovernment0 The
will thus seek to gain sufficient time to train native a3minis.
tratorsa encourage the creation of responsible political parties9 and
foster a spirit of national unity, But the future of 82b~(&Policy will
depend to sam~5X6~xt t on the nature and actions of the -adninistra-
tion; the new ast association with
KetWa and with
sentiment for an East African federation does not seem propitious0
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13. In any event, stimulated by developments elsewhere in
AfricaA Uganda nationalists will almost certainly increase h ' pressure
for; independence. It is likely that in the near future either
mill have to set a definite date for the grant of independence or be faced
with growing unrest co$eieiif~Ang the Seeds of violence. Marais a better
than even chance that 11 ''))CCf_ iir~A ill accede to such pressure and announce a
schedule for independence9 perhaps to be fulfilled within five years or
soo Nevertheless, even such action might not be sufficient to insure
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a tranquil transition. The Communist threat in Uganda is insignificant,,
but in a period of rapid change in Africa such as the present
Uganda can not be insulated from developments elsewhere. If the more
radical nationalists now beginning to emerge should receive outside aid
acid encouragements or if acne development should appear to block further
progress toward selfmgTRgentg Uganda might enter a period of turbulence
endangering the entire 'osition in the country.
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